Airlines and Chapter 11

Ophir

Well-Known Member
This is an interesting article from the Economist that accuses airlines of hiding behind Chapter 11 bankrupcy law. Obviously the answer to airline longevity is a balance of income and expense. So how can airlines, particularily the Majors sustain their current models?

I would have linked the article but it is subscription only.


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US Airways
Enough already
Sep 16th 2004
From The Economist print edition
Airlines in America are abusing Chapter 11
AP

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US AIRWAYS is coming to stand for all the mistakes of the American airline industry. Mismanaged, mired in debt and crippled by a recalcitrant workforce, the airline filed for protection from its creditors under Chapter 11 of America's bankruptcy law on September 12th. It did so despite receiving a loan guarantee for $1 billion from the government's fund set up to bail out struggling airlines in the aftermath of the September 11th attacks. As if that were not bad enough, this week's bankruptcy filing was the airline's second in two years. Even by the standards of American airlines, which have all too frequently sought Chapter 11 protection, this is somewhat over the top. Enough is enough. The bankruptcy court's judge, and the American government, should now permit economic reality to prevail by letting US Airways go into liquidation.

US Airways' egregious example, and the airline industry's frequent resort to Chapter 11, risk bringing America's generally admired bankruptcy process into disrepute. If, as seems highly possible, Delta Air Lines later this year joins United Airlines and US Airways in Chapter 11, no less than 42% of the American airline industry will be kept aloft only by the courts.



Aviation woes, contd
Sep 16th 2004

United States

The airline industry

US Airways and United post information on their restructuring. Delta may soon follow their lead.



The purpose of Chapter 11, and a reason why Europe is moving to adopt a version of it, is that it encourages risk-taking by providing firms a safe haven to survive a temporary financial crisis, and a way for creditors to avoid heavy losses through the distress sale of assets. But in the airline industry Chapter 11 is being abused simply to keep in place inefficient surplus capacity. America's airlines have lost $23 billion since 2001, and they look like losing a further $4 billion this year. Unless some airlines are allowed to go out of business, so reducing the over-capacity that is causing carriers to slash prices, the entire industry is endangered by financial failure. The business model of the big American network carriers looks badly flawed now that low-cost, low-fare carriers with simpler point-to-point networks have grabbed a third of air traffic.

The combination of September 11th, SARS, the Iraq war and high fuel prices has added to the burden of an industry already in trouble. After a brief period of profitability in the late 1990s during the dotcom boom, it again began to make losses. Even after cutting 27% of their workforce and forcing employees to accept lower pay, the big carriers still have higher operating costs than upstarts such as Southwest and JetBlue.

Now employees are balking at further cuts, even if that threatens the future of their airlines. Failure to reach agreement with unions over how to reduce costs by another $800m was the immediate trigger that sent US Airways back to Chapter 11. US Airways' employees apparently expect its creditors or the federal government to bail it out again. They may have good reason for hope. The demise of US Airways would eliminate thousands of jobs in swing states such as Pennsylvania right in the middle of a presidential election. The Bush administration has already shown itself ready to protect uneconomic jobs in the steel, textile and farming industries, as well as the airline industry, with trade protection or subsidies.

Europe has broken its habit of subsidising airlines—with the glaring exception of Italy's support for Alitalia. Finance ministers of other countries, as well as Brussels officials, have stood stony-faced as airlines looked for succour in recent years. America, the champion of free markets, surely ought to be able to do the same, and let the market take care of loss-making airlines.


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Ive never thought about this before, but if one major does completely bust and is no longer around will that help ease the industry out of its current situation or will it make the crisis worse by oversupplying the jobmarkets of the other airlines with the displaced workers?

It seems natural that if one does bust it would lessen the competition and raise prices, but then I second guess that.
 
From a purely competitive standpoint it would alleviate the problem of overcapacity. Not that the airplanes aren't all full, but that there are a sufficient number of seats out there to kill any pricing power an airline might have. Their product is not scarce enough to command a price that makes the delivery of that product profitable.

From a jobs standpoint, it would make worse an already poor job market for airline professionals. Some (office personnel) could get similar jobs in other fields. Some would probably leave aviation and go elsewhere. But many (like pilots and A&P mechanics) have skills that can't be applied elsewhere and they'll be chasing all-too-scarce positions elsewhere in the industry.

So, there's no simple answer ...
 
I've talked to a lot of furloughed guys that said they're pretty happy doing construction/contract work down in FL. The housing industry is booming there, and they already make more now than they did as airline pilots. They fly on the side if they want to, and they have much greater job stability. I wouldn't be surprised to see what pilots US Air has left get out of the airline business all together if they have other alternatives.
 
The main problem right now is we are over-hubbed. If USAir and another airline shutdown, you'd have to hope their hubs would stay shutdown. Without a doubt some of their equipment will get picked up and operated (A-320s, 737s, A-330s). But if the number of hubs gets reduced, the remaining hub carriers have a chance assuming they get their debt load, labor and pension costs in line.
 
So how does it usually work? If US Airways goes bust what happens to their equipment and their routes? Do they sell routes and slots at airports? Are those worth anything if they go bankrupt? I can understand the airplanes are worth something but what else has value to bail out the debt?
 
One thing that's got a lot of value for US Airways is their shuttle. They will get a lot of money for that one. There used to be speculation that Delta was going to gobble that up someday, but that isn't going to happen now.

That's a money maker, and someone will jump on that. Who? I don't know, but someone will.
 
But I still don't get it. If left to self-destruct the routes would eventually open up right? So what is there to buy other than the equipment?
 
From my understanding, it's the landing rights, the gates, and so on that are so valuable. Those are worth money to other airlines. Apparently, those things for the shuttle are worth enough that someone will gobble them up.
 
So who owns the landing rights, the airport or the FAA? I have always wondered that. I know that scheduled flights essentially have a slot, but because that slot is a government issue I have a hard time wondering it can be considered equity.
 
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