Airlines advised to start raising pay to...retain labor.

[ppragman]

I've never heard an airline pilot wannabe say "I just wanna fly with a regional my entire career." Yes, some stay, but they are the ones that either never had the opportunity, or because the opportunity cost was too high.

Actually, I would love to stay at a regional my whole career provided a few conditions were met.

One, they paid worth a damn to start.
Two, they had a decent schedule.
Three, I could eventually make over 100k per year with the weekends off.

Right now though, even on Martex pay, and especially on the pay I made up north, the opportunity cost is way too high. If that were not the case, I would enjoy regional flying (depending on the regional) lots of short hops, with lots of approaches in smaller airplanes? That's more my style. Long Haul Freight in 7X7 series doesn't particularly appeal to me for any reason other than the pay. Either give me lots of variety with long legs, or routine with short hops.

 

[dasleben]

Actually, I would love to stay at a regional my whole career provided a few conditions were met.

One, they paid worth a damn to start.
Two, they had a decent schedule.
Three, I could eventually make over 100k per year with the weekends off.

Right now though, even on Martex pay, and especially on the pay I made up north, the opportunity cost is way too high. If that were not the case, I would enjoy regional flying (depending on the regional) lots of short hops, with lots of approaches in smaller airplanes? That's more my style. Long Haul Freight in 7X7 series doesn't particularly appeal to me for any reason other than the pay. Either give me lots of variety with long legs, or routine with short hops.

Agreed with that. I'll quit aviation before I ever go back to a standard 121 regional. I stand behind that. If something happens to my current gig, I'm calling Cape Air and trying to get my job back there. The flying is decent, but I just couldn't see myself going back to that level of QOL for that level of pay. I won't say the pay where I'm at now is at SWA levels, but it's livable (particularly when the new contract gets signed).

When I was at 9K I never had any sort of variety. It was always RUT-BOS-RUT or LNS-BWI-LNS, depending on where I was based at the time. Occasionally I'd get sent elsewhere, but that was a rarity. Honestly, that didn't bother me. The pay was decent for the equipment, and in the case of the LNS base, I held a 5 on/5 off line that had me home by lunch.

I'm getting the chance to try my hand at the long-haul segment of the industry, flying the 757/767 (mostly 767 once I get online). 9-10 hour legs, very few landings. I'm sure I'll see some pretty cool sights, but I can't imagine it'll be a thrill a minute. In fact, just judging how well the airplane does in the sim when you engage LNAV and VNAV, I think I'll be pretty bored.

I'm rambling...sorry. I guess the point of this is that it's all about the pay and the QOL. The airplane matters very little, and that alone will not make you happy.

 

[CFIT99]

The banks are taking care of most of this. By no longer lending to a lot of programs, the potential student base for a lot of high-dollar puppy mills is tapering off. In time, that means less 'fresh meat for the grinder' at bottom-dollar regionals. As attrition, retirement, and flow take their tolls on better jobs in the majors, corporate, and freight worlds, movement from the regionals will increase. Eventually the feed in the pipe will lose impetus, the pressure switch will trip, and things will stabilize.

Will anybody get rich in the right seat of a regional airplane? Not a chance. But the days of overly-indebted newhires clamoring for anything that might help them make a debt payment are over.

talked to an ATP instructor at KGKY and he said right now only about 1 in 4 are getting approved for a loan, and back in 09 when the hiring situation was non existent it was around 1 in 10

(not sure how official these numbers are but I did see a HUGE decrease in flying from them)

 

[mrivc211]

Just from casual discussion - most of the guys hired at ASA between 98-01, and obviously those hired well before 1998 - many of them are staying at ASA until they retire...unless they escape to overseas companies. They're not interested in domestic 121 - even frieght. They are largely, 10 year Captains on the 700/900 with a few on the 200 enjoying a fairly nice schedule and making decent money.

Is it for me? No, but for many reasons.

But I can understand why they are staying. 9/11 crushed many of their career expectations, and are quite happy staying at a "better" regional until they retire.

Tell that to the 10 yr captains at Comair that will now be jr FOs.

 

[surreal1221]

Tell that to the 10 yr captains at Comair that will now be jr FOs.

Uh...which part?

 

[Firebird2XC]

talked to an ATP instructor at KGKY and he said right now only about 1 in 4 are getting approved for a loan, and back in 09 when the hiring situation was non existent it was around 1 in 10

(not sure how official these numbers are but I did see a HUGE decrease in flying from them)

This is what I'm talking about right now. The determined will still find a way to make their training happen. The rest won't be able to get ridiculous loans for horrifyingly overpriced "I can haz RJ FO jobz!" programs.

Either way, with unscrupulous training programs no longer able to sell student pilots a bill of goods about careers in the pilot world, things will stabilize. Student numbers will drop, and attrition in the existing pilot ranks will thin the herd. Salaries will rise, even if ever so slightly. GA prices for training programs will come down. Prices for used GA airframes might even get better. Fewer students means decreased training demand, which will depress prices. Once prices get a little lower, you'll see a return in GA flying for non-professional student reasons.

In the long run, this may actually be good for amateur GA as well as the professional pilot world. Things will oscillate for a while, but gradually things will dampen out to a new baseline for everybody.

Edit: I really do hope this helps with the GA thing. I miss flying GA on the regular like I'd miss a dead friend. My little pipedream of owning a place with my own hangar and a little single engine hotrod haven't been dashed completely. Someday, it'll happen.

 

[HVYMETALDRVR]

This is what I'm talking about right now. The determined will still find a way to make their training happen. The rest won't be able to get ridiculous loans for horrifyingly overpriced "I can haz RJ FO jobz!" programs.

Either way, with unscrupulous training programs no longer able to sell student pilots a bill of goods about careers in the pilot world, things will stabilize. Student numbers will drop, and attrition in the existing pilot ranks will thin the herd. Salaries will rise, even if ever so slightly. GA prices for training programs will come down. Prices for used GA airframes might even get better. Fewer students means decreased training demand, which will depress prices. Once prices get a little lower, you'll see a return in GA flying for non-professional student reasons.

In the long run, this may actually be good for amateur GA as well as the professional pilot world. Things will oscillate for a while, but gradually things will dampen out to a new baseline for everybody.

Edit: I really do hope this helps with the GA thing. I miss flying GA on the regular like I'd miss a dead friend. My little pipedream of owning a place with my own hangar and a little single engine hotrod haven't been dashed completely. Someday, it'll happen.

I agree with the decreased student pilots over time causing attrition 100%. The only catch though is to be careful about trying to predict this industry more than a couple of years out because its just too slippery.
Remember you also have fuel prices to deal with, Air Traffic Controller strikes, or what if one of the majors went under and dumped 8,000 pilots on the street?

The retirements and lack of student pilots is helping... however unfortunately we still can't just sit back on our laurels and sit the kool-aid in this industry...

 

[HVYMETALDRVR]

*sip* the kool-aid I mean

 

[Firebird2XC]

I agree with the decreased student pilots over time causing attrition 100%. The only catch though is to be careful about trying to predict this industry more than a couple of years out because its just too slippery.
Remember you also have fuel prices to deal with, Air Traffic Controller strikes, or what if one of the majors went under and dumped 8,000 pilots on the street?

The retirements and lack of student pilots is helping... however unfortunately we still can't just sit back on our laurels and sit the kool-aid in this industry...

*sip* the kool-aid I mean

Of course- you're absolutely right. Trying to look out more than a year or two in the industry is a fool's errand. Everybody that got caught up in the whole "upgrade fast and make billions!" thing remember that all too well, I'm sure. This industry is so closely linked the oscillations of the economy that we're all really snared to that anyhow.

 

[granlistillo]

This is what I'm talking about right now. The determined will still find a way to make their training happen. The rest won't be able to get ridiculous loans for horrifyingly overpriced "I can haz RJ FO jobz!" programs.

Either way, with unscrupulous training programs no longer able to sell student pilots a bill of goods about careers in the pilot world, things will stabilize. Student numbers will drop, and attrition in the existing pilot ranks will thin the herd. Salaries will rise, even if ever so slightly. GA prices for training programs will come down. Prices for used GA airframes might even get better. Fewer students means decreased training demand, which will depress prices. Once prices get a little lower, you'll see a return in GA flying for non-professional student reasons.

I hope you're right. I think the key will be to see what the exceptions are for reduced hiring mins. Hopefully, the rule will not just be papertiger. I think if the airlines get in a pinch that they'll change the rule.

 

[derg]

Of course- you're absolutely right. Trying to look out more than a year or two in the industry is a fool's errand. Everybody that got caught up in the whole "upgrade fast and make billions!" thing remember that all too well, I'm sure. This industry is so closely linked the oscillations of the economy that we're all really snared to that anyhow.

Upgrade? Did someone say upgrade?

TT??? How long until I can hold LAX??? OMG, I'm 40 hours short of multi, can I get an interview still?

 

[Firebird2XC]

Damn you and your coffee-snort-laugh inducing antics!!!!eleventy!!