AirlineApps: “Why Haven’t I Heard Anything”

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Well there was a lot of investment into those programs which created an oversupply of candidates with commitments coming due.

I know a person who was part of a program here in PHX that is “tired of waiting for mainline” that wants to get into the consideration process at my airline but the experience meets minimum qualifications but the overall package is less-than-competitive at the moment. They’re better off waiting for the program they’re in and cranking away at their current employer than getting wrapped around the axle about opportunities this high up the food chain.

I don’t blame them as it’s the world they were sold a few years ago and that’s shifted for a variety of reasons.

Nah. I do blame them. For not researching this career enough, and realizing that 2022-2024 was a one-off as opposed to the norm.

Instagram and TikTok is NOT research.


More than HALF of all major airline pilot seniority lists were hired on or after 2014. They really haven’t seen any tough times, minus the COVID era. But even that was saved my multiple rounds of PSP and airline loans. A few smaller regionals went under but majors were fine and everyone kept their jobs.

God forbid we have a 9/11, black swan, or an age 67/70 type deal. Something that just outright pauses airline hiring for 2-5 yrs and results in industry wide furloughs and downgrades. You’d have to put some on suicide watch.

 

[knot4u]

I specifically mean the 121 airline world, which I assume wasn't clear.

It's not isolated to 121 though, its just called reality and everyone has to deal with it. You mentioned big expectations, where did those come from? Every walk of life has a success story to aspire to, but that's an aspiration and not a guarantee. Being successful does require a certain amount of luck, but they say luck is where talent, preparation and opportunity intersect.

 

[ppragman]

I specifically mean the 121 airline world, which I assume wasn't clear.

Yeah, 121 you either make it or you don't - I don't disagree with that.

The stats are not great either. I was doing the numbers almost 10 or 15 years ago, if you look at all the certificated ATP pilots as a number, and the number of jobs on apc, you end up seeing something something like only 20% (ish) of guys make it to the majors? I haven't run the numbers in a bit, I actually assume that has gotten a bit better because of consolidation, and the previous pilot shortage etc. but yeah, if you're in a room of 5 guys, are you more likely to get hired than 4 of them is the question you should be asking. Those odds suck. Even if it's something like 40% now (I don't think it is but I'm too lazy to compile the numbers again), you're still looking at something like most people don't "win" the game and instead they top out as RJ captain or get on at something a little bit better like an LCC or soemthing, then eventually get a sort of life style they can tolerate and then give up trying. But the stats aren't really in your favor in the 121 world.

The conclusion I eventually reached was, "if it presents itself as an opportunity, and I think it will be better than what I'm doing, I'll go with it, but otherwise, optimize here."

The thing is when EVERYBODY says "Do X" you're going to face a lot of stiff competition. Instead, don't do "not X" - rather find something orthogonal and do that. My one buddy doing jet charter stuff in Florida has eventually spun it into a thing where he is managing several airplanes. That means now he's making money when he's not even flying. When he does fly, it's the trips he wants at the price point he wants. Does he have the security of a 49 year old guy who's been at Delta for 15 years? No. But honestly he has much more control over his own life and if he medical's out tomorrow he can still keep cash coming in.

I don't think the stuff he does would have been for me? But, it's orthogonal to the "normal" track and I think that's probably the best way to go. Don't try to do what everyone else is doing - if you do there's far more competition and it's hard to endlessly compete. If you make it you're set, but if you don't it's a grind that you spent not having fun in the mean time.

 

[🦈💜]

What does "being ahead" even mean in this context?

In the 121 world, living in base, flying trips that don't literally kill you, working less than 20 days per month, ever being home, being able to afford a house where you live. In short: Getting a return on the decades and hundreds of thousands it took you to get in that position sufficient to let you be self-sufficient and have a life outside of work.

Like, so many guys have a house, get to be home frequently, and make a decent living.

That's all, really.

They're not getting UPS captain rich, but they're making $150-$250 depending on how much they work, the company etc.

Medevac is one of these places, you see a lot of people spend 20 years at these shops, they raise a family at them, etc. because they *enjoy* the work and find it rewarding.

Personally, I still want to fly fire, but jobs that meet the above criteria are hard to find. I put an app in every year to CalFire, I've been around bases, talked to people, and so on. I'll keep putting my app in, but I doubt I'll get any consideration without getting something other than what I'm doing now.

But ultimately, the 121 world is ... a bit unhealthy as a career, in many ways.

 

[🦈💜]

The stats are not great either. I was doing the numbers almost 10 or 15 years ago, if you look at all the certificated ATP pilots as a number, and the number of jobs on apc, you end up seeing something something like only 20% (ish) of guys make it to the majors? I haven't run the numbers in a bit, I actually assume that has gotten a bit better because of consolidation, and the previous pilot shortage etc. but yeah, if you're in a room of 5 guys, are you more likely to get hired than 4 of them is the question you should be asking.

That's the reason I've given up on moving on—I'm not.

Those odds suck. Even if it's something like 40% now (I don't think it is but I'm too lazy to compile the numbers again), you're still looking at something like most people don't "win" the game and instead they top out as RJ captain or get on at something a little bit better like an LCC or soemthing, then eventually get a sort of life style they can tolerate and then give up trying. But the stats aren't really in your favor in the 121 world.

They're not. And being a regional captain, while it has all the responsibility of being a mainline CA with ten times the suck, gets no respect among your peers. If anything, it's the opposite—even FOs that got hired by the majors at 1500 hours during the wave look down on you and treat you with condescension.

Ultimately, though, my main complaint is that this career bills itself as having good quality of life, and that's just a straight up lie unless you're in that 20%. And everyone treats you as if you have to "pay your dues." It's pretty toxic.

I don't think the stuff he does would have been for me? But, it's orthogonal to the "normal" track and I think that's probably the best way to go. Don't try to do what everyone else is doing - if you do there's far more competition and it's hard to endlessly compete. If you make it you're set, but if you don't it's a grind that you spent not having fun in the mean time.

It's such a complex thing. But generally I think at this point I only recommend people go the 121 route if they know they're going to be "competitive," or if they have the means to try it for a while to see if they like it. It's a blood sport.

 

[derg]

Nah. I do blame them. For not researching this career enough, and realizing that 2022-2024 was a one-off as opposed to the norm.

Instagram and TikTok is NOT research.


More than HALF of all major airline pilot seniority lists were hired on or after 2014. They really haven’t seen any tough times, minus the COVID era. But even that was saved my multiple rounds of PSP and airline loans. A few smaller regionals went under but majors were fine and everyone kept their jobs.

God forbid we have a 9/11, black swan, or an age 67/70 type deal. Something that just outright pauses airline hiring for 2-5 yrs and results in industry wide furloughs and downgrades. You’d have to put some on suicide watch.

Nah, I don’t agree on the ‘they didn’t research’ because there’s no way to research.

There’s methods of reading available information, but the available information isn’t a 1:1 aspect of the profession. You can only read what people are willing to talk about, on the internet, and what you see is probablty 5-10-20% of pilots that are on forums or social media, actively and fewer of those are producing relevant content worth… “researching”.

Here’s an example. I’m building a “video wall” at home. I’ve read lots of articles about matrix set-ups, ultra-short throw projectors, traditional projectors, and LED blocks.

I’m reading for perspectives and like hell I’m digging through spec sheets, looking at the average lumens in the room, in question and other ACTUAL research because this information isn’t available so I’m literally working with people that are visual design engineers at my employer (vis a vis the people that created that badass display in T2/T3 in LAX) on the various consumer-level options to get the result I’m looking for.

But it’s not research. It’s reading and listening and I might not even be listening to the right people or reading the right articles.

The ground shifted beneath an entire generation of new pilots and no one knew how fast (or slow) that would happen because it went from the apocalypse of staffing to creating programs to push more pilots in the system to “Hot damn, now we’ve got to put these people somewhere” almost overnight. I don’t blame them, they aren’t the problem, but the problem is mentorship.

 

[jhugz]

I don’t blame them, they aren’t the problem, but the problem is mentorship.

While I do not disagree with you, I’m also finding there’s an issue with mentees not being receptive to mentorship.

 

[derg]

While I do not disagree with you, I’m also finding there’s an issue with mentees not being receptive to mentorship.

Oh 100%

But that’s a wider societal problem where we’ve give people the ability to think “Well my font is the same size as an experts font and I’m entitled to my opinion” so I think sunlight will cure cancer in a room full of oncologists, so it’s not exactly, endemic to aviation alone.

Someone asked me a good service to **PAY FOR** to do cognitive testing and I told them to apply for American because it’s basically the same thing and there’s not much to really prepare for other than following directions, being distraction-free, NOT hungover and the AA application is a perfect ‘taster’.

“Shut up!” Followed by dropping hundreds at some prep firm…

“OK!”

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

I think this is something super important. I know some people that get “visibility” on the correspondence from some of the newer applicants that hit the bare minimums, immediately apply jobs up the food chain and then a week later inquire about why they haven’t been scheduled for an interview and, while they’re asking, what the upgrade time and how quickly can they get a captain position at “XYZ”, where the carrier doesn’t even have a pilot base at “XYZ”

Thoughts?

AA is still planning on hiring 1000+, along with United. Southwest and Delta seem to be hiring less, but still a lot, historically. There are still people way more qualified than me who haven't received an invite to interview. I agree with essentially everything the post says. You have to do more than fog a mirror. You have to do more than apply. Checking the boxes is the bare minimum.

One other factor to consider is that there are a lot of highly experienced Airbus pilots jumping ship from Spirit and Frontier. It's going to be hard to compete against someone who went through a rigorous training process at a ULCC, and has PIC time in the airplane.

With all of that said, as @ClearedForOption said, this isn't 2009. There is still going to be a vacuum at the top of the industry for at least 5 more years. The big 4 will hire more pilots in one year than the total number of pilots on many regional seniority lists.

 

[derg]

You’d actually be surprised. Many of the first vollies from the F9’s and NK’s of the industry weren’t the highly experienced pilots, it was a lot of the cadet-style experience levels that got a few months of experience in their logbooks that wanted to immediately bounce out of there in the last year or so.

The big “mystery box” is going to be how the K-shaped economy affects the leisure business as business travel, well, the higher margin business travel is under pressure. Economically, you’re either doing OK (us) or you’re getting your ass kicked in the job market (most everyone else) and there’s only so much of that “We’re doin’ alright” market to spread around. I know SouthernJets bread and butter was the high margin “up front” cabins on the international side, but demand has softened after the acceleration bookings that don’t include US tourism.

Think a broadening of the situation in Las Vegas when it comes to international tourism.

You need to hire for attrition, yes, but expansion, no. But if you briskly hire right before the predicted drawback starts, it looks a little scary so most of the majors, while continuing to hire, aren’t putting out the “exuberant” numbers in 2026 that they talked about in 2024/2025. I know Delta adjusted up, UAL adjusted down, not quite sure what AA’s doing terms of rationalization of hiring forecasts.

(I had to reread with respect to certain NDA’s, LOL)

 

[NovemberEcho]

It's amazing how much the aviation industry has changed in my lifetime alone.

It’s crazy but aviation hasn’t even been around for 2 lifetimes yet.

 

[ppragman]

In the 121 world, living in base, flying trips that don't literally kill you, working less than 20 days per month, ever being home, being able to afford a house where you live. In short: Getting a return on the decades and hundreds of thousands it took you to get in that position sufficient to let you be self-sufficient and have a life outside of work.

Yeah... medevac. Like... in a big way. If I could magically be healed tomorrow. I'd go slog it out flying 135 again for a year to get current, then I'd go back to medevac

That's all, really.

Yeah, AeroAir in PDX or JNU would tick that box likely? I mean, home ownership might be like a year or two away? But definitely attainable? I got lucky in life in many many ways, but 135 and a spouse that is supportive can make it work?

Personally, I still want to fly fire, but jobs that meet the above criteria are hard to find. I put an app in every year to CalFire, I've been around bases, talked to people, and so on. I'll keep putting my app in, but I doubt I'll get any consideration without getting something other than what I'm doing now.

But ultimately, the 121 world is ... a bit unhealthy as a career, in many ways.

AeroAir seems like an even better fit

 

[WacoFan]

While I do not disagree with you, I’m also finding there’s an issue with mentees not being receptive to mentorship.

If I recall "little Jhugz" correctly, you were really strong-willed and sort of mouthy beyond your years...but you also mixed it up and weren't a whiney bitch if you got smacked around some, and you took lessons where you found them. Not as a counterpoint, but more complimentary point to yours - the mentee is not always going to be agreeable or in lockstep to the mentor. Therefore the mentor needs to judge carefully before just throwing in the towel and you end up with some loser like @DPApilot that ends up listening to people like @Boris Badenov and such.

 

[MikeD]

While I do not disagree with you, I’m also finding there’s an issue with mentees not being receptive to mentorship.

Speaking of Aviate, has anyone who started in the program, made it to a mainline? I’m not sure what the projected timeline of the program is, hence the question.

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

In the 121 world, living in base, flying trips that don't literally kill you, working less than 20 days per month, ever being home, being able to afford a house where you live. In short: Getting a return on the decades and hundreds of thousands it took you to get in that position sufficient to let you be self-sufficient and have a life outside of work.

I worked at 3 different 121 carriers, meaning I reset my seniority 3 times, and I never once worked 20 days in a month unless I picked stuff up. Also, the bigger regionals all start at 6 figures now. Endeavor tops out at 226 and Envoy tops out at 225. Not exactly chump change.

Gotta be honest, from my point of view this industry really only a good place for those who make it—if you're not one of those people who are lucky, it's brutal. It's not a place you can just find a niche and settle in, you're either a "have" or a "have not."

That's not true, at all. There are plenty of lifers at Skywest and other regionals who have no interest in even applying for a job anywhere else. Some have flows that they have turned down.

You're letting your decisions and circumstances cloud the fact that in the grand scheme of things, you have a great job. You're just in a tough spot right now, but it will get better, whether it's at your current job or you move on to bigger and better.

You need to hire for attrition, yes, but expansion, no. But if you briskly hire right before the predicted drawback starts, it looks a little scary so most of the majors, while continuing to hire, aren’t putting out the “exuberant” numbers in 2026 that they talked about in 2024/2025. I know Delta adjusted up, UAL adjusted down, not quite sure what AA’s doing terms of rationalization of hiring forecasts.

At AA, just hiring for straight retirements, and no other attrition, we will still need on average 500+ per year for the better part of 2 decades. This doesn't account for deliveries of new aircraft (I never count on that), or attrition outside of retirement.

 

[derg]

Attrition is uhh… aww nevermind.

 

[knot4u]

I worked at 3 different 121 carriers, meaning I reset my seniority 3 times, and I never once worked 20 days in a month unless I picked stuff up. Also, the bigger regionals all start at 6 figures now. Endeavor tops out at 226 and Envoy tops out at 225. Not exactly chump change.

That's not true, at all. There are plenty of lifers at Skywest and other regionals who have no interest in even applying for a job anywhere else. Some have flows that they have turned down.

You're letting your decisions and circumstances cloud the fact that in the grand scheme of things, you have a great job. You're just in a tough spot right now, but it will get better, whether it's at your current job or you move on to bigger and better.

I'm not sure if you dip into The Lav but according to everyone there the country is pretty much finished and it's going to be either a monarchy with an oligarchy or a fascist dictatorship, I think it depends on which way the wind's blowing.

 

[jhugz]

If I recall "little Jhugz" correctly, you were really strong-willed and sort of mouthy beyond your years...but you also mixed it up and weren't a whiney bitch if you got smacked around some, and you took lessons where you found them. Not as a counterpoint, but more complimentary point to yours - the mentee is not always going to be agreeable or in lockstep to the mentor. Therefore the mentor needs to judge carefully before just throwing in the towel and you end up with some loser like @DPApilot that ends up listening to people like @Boris Badenov and such.

Everything you said is 100 percent correct. Something I’ve learned as a mentor over the past couple of years is you have a limited bandwidth. You don’t have to be in complete lockstep with your mentee, but if time after time they ignore your advice…then ask you how to dig out of the whole they got themselves into…then ignore that advice…you’re better off spending their bandwidth on someone else who may actually use it.

 

[jhugz]

Speaking of Aviate, has anyone who started in the program, made it to a mainline? I’m not sure what the projected timeline of the program is, hence the question.

Are you talking about Aviate or Aviate Academy? Academy, idk, but there have been Aviate’s that made it over to United.

 

[Box hauler]

That's the reason I've given up on moving on—I'm not.



They're not. And being a regional captain, while it has all the responsibility of being a mainline CA with ten times the suck, gets no respect among your peers. If anything, it's the opposite—even FOs that got hired by the majors at 1500 hours during the wave look down on you and treat you with condescension.

Ultimately, though, my main complaint is that this career bills itself as having good quality of life, and that's just a straight up lie unless you're in that 20%. And everyone treats you as if you have to "pay your dues." It's pretty toxic.



It's such a complex thing. But generally I think at this point I only recommend people go the 121 route if they know they're going to be "competitive," or if they have the means to try it for a while to see if they like it. It's a blood sport.

I don’t think that I agree with many of these takes. I’ve seen plenty of people including men, women, people with diverse backgrounds, military, no degree get hired at legacies. People who network well and interview well get hired without knowing they would be competitive when they started. Often you seem to be angry and accusatory about why your ship hasn’t come in yet but those things might connected…