AirlineApps: “Why Haven’t I Heard Anything”

derg

Apparently a "terse" writer
Staff member
Sorry for the screen capture, but I’m lazy and the formatting didn’t translate well on the forum software:
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The aforementioned LinkedIn Post:

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I think this is something super important. I know some people that get “visibility” on the correspondence from some of the newer applicants that hit the bare minimums, immediately apply jobs up the food chain and then a week later inquire about why they haven’t been scheduled for an interview and, while they’re asking, what the upgrade time and how quickly can they get a captain position at “XYZ”, where the carrier doesn’t even have a pilot base at “XYZ”

Thoughts?
 
Qualified vs competitive indeed. Probably flying things like TPIC and non flying things like a college degree, being solid requirements again?
 
I think that the guy on LinkedIn needs more "to the moon" emoji's so that people will take him more seriously. Unless there are at least 3, I take the post with a grain of salt.

5 are preferred.

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

See...

In all seriousness, the information above is factual - it was a historic hiring wave. It's normalizing. What is the best way to communicate this information to people that are trying to grow their careers? (IMHO, not with the frat-bro suck it up linkedin post above.)

My emotional response - as someone who lived through the lost decade, was furloughed, and watched the bottom drop out of my career a couple of times - is that there is no easy button in life. If you ask truly successful people (that aren't raging narcissists) what the key to their success was - they will always attribute a huge percentage of it to luck. What is happening right now, the return to the normalization of pilot career progression - is probably a good thing because of the 'apprentice-journeyman-master' model of how we grow professional pilots in the USA.

The hiring is still there - we aren't in '02-'06 or '08-'11. It's not all doom and gloom. Retirements are still happening. Growth is still happening. You just have to do the reps and do the work to build your career path.
 
Qualified vs competitive indeed. Probably flying things like TPIC and non flying things like a college degree, being solid requirements again?

Not specficially required but generally the people getting the opportunities are the ones that not only satisfy the minimum requirements but also the competitive qualifications.

I think the problem is that as the ‘shortage’ hit, what as causing the shortage wasn’t really addresssed and by the time it was, there were a glut of new starts with the impression that if they can just get on at a regional, quite swiftly, they were going to be 767 captains at mainline like the people they watch on Instagram from the early 2020’s.

So now there are direct entry programs, cadet programs, et al that a lot of airlines built as reactionary measures to a temporary situation. But that’s a conversation for another time because I’m about to go dig in the fridge. LOL
 
Not specficially required but generally the people getting the opportunities are the ones that not only satisfy the minimum requirements but also the competitive qualifications.

I think the problem is that as the ‘shortage’ hit, what as causing the shortage wasn’t really addresssed and by the time it was, there were a glut of new starts with the impression that if they can just get on at a regional, quite swiftly, they were going to be 767 captains at mainline like the people they watch on Instagram from the early 2020’s.

So now there are direct entry programs, cadet programs, et al that a lot of airlines built as reactionary measures to a temporary situation. But that’s a conversation for another time because I’m about to go dig in the fridge. LOL

That mean these ab initio style programs aren’t going to be getting the pace of movement to the mainlines that there was the impression they would have? Some big investments have been put into those. United’s Aviate operation…. campus is a better description for it….at GYR seems to be a pretty robust operation from what I’ve seen of it. Almost like a mini-ERAU.
 
Qualified vs competitive indeed. Probably flying things like TPIC and non flying things like a college degree, being solid requirements again?

I don't think a college degree matters all that much, as no one I have spoken with has seemed to care that I had one. They have all cared about TPIC time, which you seem to need a lot of to be competitive for SIC positions right now.
 
One more random thought before I have to get ready to fly back up North...

To anyone who may be stressed out about how long their career progression is taking I will leave this (Socratic?) thought: I want you to think about every child-star, singer, rocker, young actor, etc. that you know (or can look up on the Wiki) and think about their career projection. Think Charlie Sheen. (or someone like that) What do you do in life when you "peak" at 25? Sure, things might not be going the way that you want - but your career is going to last a long time. You are going to have many opportunities to enjoy many different experiences and layovers - chasing the same grind over and over again at "mainline" is not the way to live your life. For now, what you need to be doing is enjoying what life is throwing at you - building your stories for the future. Enjoying the adventure of now. Yes, there will be missed opportunities, and you may not have that super-seniority of a '21 hire - but you will have lived life. And you'll have great stories for your interview.

Trust me... no one 20 years from now is going to want to hear about how you went from being a 1500 hr. wonder to the right seat of an Airbus or a 73. Zero. Nada. And trust me, 20 years is a long time to be just doing ATL turns (or whatever - MCO, FLL, east coast shuttle) out of JFK.

You know the stories I tell people? Not that. I talk about my days circling the world to the left and right at Southern. Grinding in the back while getting my licenses. I tell stories about 10 leg days in the 1900. My time at Mesa in the CRJ... Days which, at the time, seemed like pure misery. Heed the words of Yoda: "All his life has he looked away... to the future, to the horizon. Never his mind on where he was. What he was doing. Adventure! Excitement! A Jedi craves not these things."

Think about those folks that peaked early - what happens to them - they get bored and chase a high and burn out. That's the thrice divorced 2nd family in SA boomer Capt. that we all have seen grinding through the terminal.

Don't chase the future at the expense of the present. This career is what you make of it and the beauty of it is that we all get to follow a slightly different path.

Ok, rant over.
 
What do you do in life when you "peak" at 25? Sure, things might not be going the way that you want - but your carer is going to last a long time.
I’m not sure that’s at all true. I’m very skeptical that many of us will be able to work until age 65, whether it’s robots, we finally have the overdue “oh •!” Moment on climate change, or some populist politician of any stripe finally kicks the money machine into such a high gear that we get currency collapse. The younger folks especially aren’t wrong to chase that bag aggressively while it’s there.
 
Trust me... no one 20 years from now is going to want to hear about how you went from being a 1500 hr. wonder to the right seat of an Airbus or a 73. Zero. Nada. And trust me, 20 years is a long time to be just doing ATL turns (or whatever - MCO, FLL, east coast shuttle) out of JFK.

They are boring as can be flying with when they've been here for two years, I pity the poor FO flying with them in 10, 20, or 30 years! Assuming the robots haven't replaced us all, that is.
 
The younger folks especially aren’t wrong to chase that bag aggressively while it’s there.

That, and it's not like there is a surplus of these "pay your dues" flying jobs until then, in the current market. At least for my peers and me, it isn't that they are thumbing their noses at other options. There just aren't other options, and a CFI's services seem to be less in demand above 1,500 hours or so.
 
That mean these ab initio style programs aren’t going to be getting the pace of movement to the mainlines that there was the impression they would have? Some big investments have been put into those. United’s Aviate operation…. campus is a better description for it….at GYR seems to be a pretty robust operation from what I’ve seen of it. Almost like a mini-ERAU.

Well there was a lot of investment into those programs which created an oversupply of candidates with commitments coming due.

I know a person who was part of a program here in PHX that is “tired of waiting for mainline” that wants to get into the consideration process at my airline but the experience meets minimum qualifications but the overall package is less-than-competitive at the moment. They’re better off waiting for the program they’re in and cranking away at their current employer than getting wrapped around the axle about opportunities this high up the food chain.

I don’t blame them as it’s the world they were sold a few years ago and that’s shifted for a variety of reasons.
 
Gotta be honest, from my point of view this industry really only a good place for those who make it—if you're not one of those people who are lucky, it's brutal. It's not a place you can just find a niche and settle in, you're either a "have" or a "have not."

There are people who got massively unrealistic expectations, but there were also people for whom those expectations were met. Those people will permanently be ahead, to the point where after a while those who are left behind might as well not even bother, due to the seniority system.

It's not just about money, it's about your time—the blood of your life.
 
Well there was a lot of investment into those programs which created an oversupply of candidates with commitments coming due.

I don't think of these programs as a terrible idea, in theory. They want a supply of labor, and the labor wants some certainty that the investment they make will result in a job. The disconnect was probably in setting up a multi-year pipeline to solve a next-quarter or next-fiscal-year problem.
 
Gotta be honest, from my point of view this industry really only a good place for those who make it—if you're not one of those people who are lucky, it's brutal. It's not a place you can just find a niche and settle in, you're either a "have" or a "have not."

You can make $30k or $300k doing almost exactly the same job in big tech. Went to the school with the right name, used to work at the right competitor, have the right friends? It isn't fair, but most industries aren't.
 
I’m not sure that’s at all true. I’m very skeptical that many of us will be able to work until age 65, whether it’s robots, we finally have the overdue “oh •!” Moment on climate change, or some populist politician of any stripe finally kicks the money machine into such a high gear that we get currency collapse. The younger folks especially aren’t wrong to chase that bag aggressively while it’s there.
yes, but also, there is value in having had adventures. I don't know, like, whatever you can do, make sure you pay off the bills, after that, who cares what airplane you're flying around. I got thumped out of this mess just when it was getting lucrative. That sucked for me, but the rollercoaster ride there in retrospect gave me WAY more interesting stories than most folks. It may just be because I am a weirdo (I'm fine with that), but not a lot of people have been to "secret squirrel long range radar sites" or built approaches into lodge strips, or flown the Napali coast to pick up a dying old person.

Granted, flying the JNU milk run would be dope at AS, but beyond the money, it seems that most of the guys who "made it?" the types of stories they had changed, the type of life they lived changed. Not all, but a lot.

Again, it wasn't all bad, but I think it might be better for your soul to change at 30 rather than 23 or whatever. But also, I could be full of •? Hard to understand what the road not taken is like.

I mean, "go get that bag" is definitely solid and I think young people should be doing that, but I think people should go have adventures.
t's not a place you can just find a niche and settle in, you're either a "have" or a "have not."
I disagree with this - I found a niche, and settled into it. For a long time I didn't, and was constantly looking to the "next thing" but I eventually decided what I wanted out of life (and it wasn't to sit in a flying building). It wasn't 121, but I did find it (albeit briefly) until I got sick. I even had decided to turn down a couple of 121 interviews. How wild is that along the way. I decided "no, I don't think that is me" and really it worked out. If I hadn't gotten sick, I'd still be happily driving around twin otters in the arctic or running an air taxi of my own. Big-Evil Oil LLC was lucrative enough to afford that. A lot of my friends have "found niches." It depends on what you want out of life?

What does "being ahead" even mean in this context? Like, so many guys have a house, get to be home frequently, and make a decent living. They're not getting UPS captain rich, but they're making $150-$250 depending on how much they work, the company etc. There are guys doing way better than that too, I would have been set to do much better than that by now had I not gotten sick. And many of these guys *enjoy* the work that they're doing. Medevac is one of these places, you see a lot of people spend 20 years at these shops, they raise a family at them, etc. because they *enjoy* the work and find it rewarding.

Obviously, that's a privileged position and these sorts of gigs don't work everywhere? But yeah. It's not black and white.
 
That, and it's not like there is a surplus of these "pay your dues" flying jobs until then, in the current market. At least for my peers and me, it isn't that they are thumbing their noses at other options. There just aren't other options, and a CFI's services seem to be less in demand above 1,500 hours or so.
This is totally fair. It's amazing how much the aviation industry has changed in my lifetime alone. How many guys cut their teeth flying checks around the country? That's just straight up gone now.
 
I don't think of these programs as a terrible idea, in theory. They want a supply of labor, and the labor wants some certainty that the investment they make will result in a job. The disconnect was probably in setting up a multi-year pipeline to solve a next-quarter or next-fiscal-year problem.

Oh no, I didn’t mean to imply they were bad at all. I think they’re good, but the concept of mentorship over the years has devolved into “look at how cool I am on Instagram” influencer-types that created a irrational perspective of the realities of the profession.

I figured by 2026 we’d have armies of experienced pilots that would be able to help guide people through the career’s trials but they’re few and far between.

If I had a dime for every “I can’t believe as a captain I can’t hold two weeks around Christmas off”, you look and they’re four years on a mainline seniority list, you can’t help but to close the browser window because you just don’t want to get the old “OK BOOMER” when you suggest a position that is going to have linear progression toward building seniority rather than swirling around the drain in the bathtub for years on end.
 
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