AI and aircraft (spun off from Fedex thread)

[Hiboglossi]

Perhaps. But I think AI controlled airliners are absolutely NOT the first target in the crosshairs of AI.

Yes, there's much lower hanging fruit, and it will probably make most pilots obsolete by rendering most of the workforce structurally unemployed, and thereby killing off most of the demand for air travel, before autonomous airliners come into general use.

 

[GypsyPilot]

Yes, there's much lower hanging fruit, and it will probably make most pilots obsolete by rendering most of the workforce structurally unemployed, and thereby killing off most of the demand for air travel, before autonomous airliners come into general use.

Agreed. By the time it takes away our jobs, UBI will be a thing. Or some type of revolution will have taken place.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

No offense, but I see cargo going first. And then pax.

 

[Hiboglossi]

Or some type of revolution will have taken place.

I think the most likely outcome is the structurally unemployed are rounded up and sent to some sort of internment facility like the "Terrafoam" system described in Marshall Brain's Manna, or possibly exterminated. The people who still have jobs aren't going to tolerate the increase in homelessness widespread structural unemployment will lead to, nor will they be willing to pay for UBI. So I think there's a good chance it could lead to a Fascist revolution.

No offense, but I see cargo going first.

Widespread technological unemployment will probably also kill off most air cargo demand first. Unemployed people tend not to buy many airline tickets; and they also probably don't order much from Amazon.

 

[SteveC]

‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead

For half a century, Geoffrey Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Now he worries it will cause serious harm.

www.nytimes.com

From the article Dr. Geoffrey Hinton, the "Godfather of AI", says:

“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people — a few people believed that,” he said. “But most people thought it was way off. And I thought it was way off. I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.”

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Maybe. But if you go back to integrated circuit development prior to 1965 the idea of density doubling every 2 years wasn't even considered. 60 years later, Moore's Law (stated in 1965) has held up. We may be at the prior 1965 point of AI, or we may not. But I certainly wouldn't put my full faith in a whitepaper from more than two years ago, in a field that moves as fast as this one is.

Sigh. Yeah you'll actually have to read what I wrote.

I don't dispute that NewsBot will eventually be able to out pilot me. Newsbot can feel the brakes are worn out or the hydraulics need refilling. Or that the wing is contaminated and Newsbot can just add 7.894359 knots to make up for it.

That's. Not. The. Point. I agreed with my friend that said pilots could be easily replaced in 15 years with NewsBot. Fine done. Sheeeeeet. Lets call it 5 years. In 5 years there will be AI that can fly better than the mighty Captain Supreme.

The point is that we will have to completely turn over our infrastructure to make this possible. On top of that we will need to do it with a group of workers that do not exist. The blue collar IT workers. This is all being discussed at a high level at Microsoft. Because they agree with me.

Keep in mind we are a society with 100 year old rotting infrastructure that we can barely maintain. Have you looked around on your drive to work. Have you noticed the state of the traffic lights? The bridges? The sidewalks? The roads? Now we will somehow magically replace all of it? I don't doubt AI's capabilities I doubt the Idiocracy that will have to rebuild itself to put AI in the drivers seat. We are too dumb and incapable as a society to pull it off.

Anyway I'm gonna cash another big ass captain check because society is so dumb. I dare society to get it's collective poop together to fix the situation because I've seen society at the airport. "You know why you have to flip all of those electrical and pneumatic switches on the 737 son? Because society failed you."

 

[Kingairer]

Almost everyone agrees this will ultimately be bad for humanity yet we stand by and watch it grow into something that will kill life as we know it.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

Almost everyone agrees this will ultimately be bad for humanity yet we stand by and watch it grow into something that will kill life as we know it.

My question is: why are you surprised?

 

[Minuteman]

Alls I'm hearing it y'all saying we're finally gonna have some of that Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism.

 

[Cory Trevor]

Hopefully we’ll continue to get some good movies about AI. I love Terminator and Ex Machina

 

[///AMG]

Software engineering is going to get hit first, and quickly in my opinion.

Good. I hope the tech people turning our world to garbage write their own retirement orders first. I write this on a Mac for irony.

 

[ChasenSFO]

Sorry, not buying it.


We're overpaid now - to the point that it's worth while for airlines and the industry in general to figure out pilotless airliners. AI will be taking over our jobs at some point in the future.


And ALL that talk about being the last line of defense, that garbage that can go wrong on a daily basis, will quickly end when Boeings and Airbus start flying pilotless around the world without any issues - and actually improve safety because they make pilot-error crashes non-existent.


While I'm happy with the salary I make, I realize we're contributing to making pilotless airliners happen sooner. If I was an airline CEO, I'd want pilots gone. 400K+ salaries, age 65 retirement issues, sick calls, fatigue calls, pickets, strikes, etc.






You know who won't have those issues?


AI.

What in the actual. Like, what in the actual...

No, bro.

Bro, no.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Perhaps. But I think AI controlled airliners are absolutely NOT the first target in the crosshairs of AI.

AGI doesn’t need to be “targeted.” As soon as it’s developed, it can immediately do everything we do better than we can.

This is where so much confusion seems to be. People see how we’ve had to specifically develop computers that were designed only to best humans at chess, and they think that’s AI. It’s not. It’s very basic machine learning. AGI doesn’t need a specialization. It isn’t targeted. It’s just an artificial brain superior to ours.

Almost everyone agrees this will ultimately be bad for humanity yet we stand by and watch it grow into something that will kill life as we know it.

Well, there really isn’t a choice. Since this can all be weaponized, it’s an arms race.

 

[EIR]

Almost everyone agrees this will ultimately be bad for humanity yet we stand by and watch it grow into something that will kill life as we know it.

 

[zmiller4]

AGI doesn’t need to be “targeted.” As soon as it’s developed, it can immediately do everything we do better than we can.

“Everything”?

That’s a long, long way off.

 

[BEEF SUPREME]

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

“Everything”?

That’s a long, long way off.

Virtually none of the experts in the field agree with you on that. This isn't coming tomorrow, but it's not coming 100 years from now, either. This is our lifetime stuff.

 

[zmiller4]

Virtually none of the experts in the field agree with you on that. This isn't coming tomorrow, but it's not coming 100 years from now, either. This is our lifetime stuff.

I don’t doubt that’s a possibility. But much like you question experts about pretty much everything, I take what AI “experts” say with a grain of salt. 4 years ago Tesla’s were supposed to be hands off self driving, and they’re not obviously close to that even now.

My old company had a massive artificial intelligence push starting 6-7 years ago and it ended up influencing very little because when it comes down to it, there’s a lot of disciplines that present a ton of problems for AI.

I have no idea if flying is one of them. The biggest issue I see with AI is data quality, which is actually a really, really big obstacle to overcome.

 

[Maurus]

I am always perplexed by people who think that AI is incapable of matching human thought. What exactly is it about a computer made of meat that you think makes it inherently superior to a computer made of microprocessors?

I don't think you understand how AI works currently. It is based on training data of things that already exist. Without some sort of external input it cannot make something that is actually new. That is the current state of AI. That is exactly why it plagiarizes so much stuff in its results.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I don’t doubt that’s a possibility. But much like you question experts about pretty much everything, I take what AI “experts” say with a grain of salt.

Fair enough, I can’t argue with that. Although it seems unlikely that they’re wrong based on the current pace of progress.

4 years ago Tesla’s were supposed to be hands off self driving, and they’re not obviously close to that even now.

Wrong, but I’m sure you won’t believe me when I tell you that I’m basically hands off with my Teslas all the time.