A "Duh" Moment. It's Official — MH17 Downed by Russian-Made Missile

BigZ said:
2004-end of 2006. Came to visit couple of times since, but haven't been there in a while, not a fan of where it's going.

Ditto on the Russian treatment of the news. Useful things get lost in the chaos of random pulled out of the you know where theories (although to be fair some are somewhat justified, like the Indian iirc airliner contrails being mistaken for a ukie fighter flying westbound by some witness).
Recent treatment of the Syrian Mi-25 that was shot down by a TOW and ended up being a not-so-Syrian Mi-35 brought down by a misfired HVAR is the prime example of how not to do things, but isnt an automatic proof of foul play in MH17

My grandpa, a retired VDV, made a good point - "No point arguing about it, all sides classified the information for the next 25-30 years anyway"

Russian-Ukrainian here too.
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Like I said earlier, we've had our intelligence and shoot down analysis teams on this, tied in with our collection assets to corroborate and eliminate other possibilities. They've performed the same types of shoot down analysis examinations we perform for our own military shoot downs.

The particular damage type and effects delivered are specific to a BUK system and even amongst that specific to a missile type only in Russian (and not Ukrainian) inventories.

Their vehicle shot down MH17.


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Lawman said:
Like I said earlier, we've had our intelligence and shoot down analysis teams on this, tied in with our collection assets to corroborate and eliminate other possibilities. They've performed the same types of shoot down analysis examinations we perform for our own military shoot downs.

The particular damage type and effects delivered are specific to a BUK system and even amongst that specific to a missile type only in Russian (and not Ukrainian) inventories.

Their vehicle shot down MH17.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I should just go grab a coffee and a muffin instead of replying in those threads next time.
 
BigZ said:
I should just go grab a coffee and a muffin instead of replying in those threads next time.
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It's more these threads turn into a trend of a lot of people with snippets of information gained from unclassified sources without the classified data to really tear down what's is being presented to them.

It's like the TWA 800 stuff. Or the 9/11 conspiracy. Yes there are inconsistencies or odd data that seem to present the argument that the official story isn't true. You can even make convincing documentaries all day long with open source unclassified data and some "expert testimony." People who have access to the stuff that blows up those theories though know better.

The Ukraine shoot down has been heavily briefed in some circles. I happen to work in one of them.
 
Lawman said:
It's more these threads turn into a trend of a lot of people with snippets of information gained from unclassified sources without the classified data to really tear down what's is being presented to them.

It's like the TWA 800 stuff. Or the 9/11 conspiracy. Yes there are inconsistencies or odd data that seem to present the argument that the official story isn't true. You can even make convincing documentaries all day long with open source unclassified data and some "expert testimony." People who have access to the stuff that blows up those theories though know better.

The Ukraine shoot down has been heavily briefed in some circles. I happen to work in one of them.
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(Munching on oatmeal and raisins cookie)
Awesome. Mind passing the info to the CBP asking them to never put my ass back onto the watch list then?
Since I dont know nuthin there shouldnt be a reason to be asking me silly "have you ever been to Russia?" questions every time Id fly back from the bahamas, call the second agent, hand on the gun, we've caught a spy kinda BS. I mean, pax found it profoundly cool and amusing, but in half a year it took to get the russians to write a letter that i dont work for them it got realy old ;)

Why do you figure US doesn't use the factual proof of Russia's intervention in Donbass (or higher than advertised involvement in Syria, for that matter), that I'm sure is there, to raise a substantiated stink (aka concern)?
 
BigZ said:
(Munching on oatmeal and raisins cookie)
Awesome. Mind passing the info to the CBP asking them to never put my ass back onto the watch list then?
Since I dont know nuthin there shouldnt be a reason to be asking me silly "have you ever been to Russia?" questions every time Id fly back from the bahamas, call the second agent, hand on the gun, we've caught a spy kinda BS. I mean, pax found it profoundly cool and amusing, but in half a year it took to get the russians to write a letter that i dont work for them it got realy old ;)

Why do you figure US doesn't use the factual proof of Russia's intervention in Donbass (or higher than advertised involvement in Syria, for that matter), that I'm sure is there, to raise a substantiated stink (aka concern)?
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What does it gain the United States to demonstrate intelligence capabilities to "prove" what 90% of the world already knows.

They aren't gonna come out and admit it. We don't get some sort of cash prize.

As stated, the evidence is there. The Dutch did a pretty good job of proving exactly that when again, they used the same forensic data that can only produce one conclusion. The positive for us is they did it without us having to show our work, and with it out capabilities.
 
Lawman said:
It's more these threads turn into a trend of a lot of people with snippets of information gained from unclassified sources without the classified data to really tear down what's is being presented to them.

It's like the TWA 800 stuff. Or the 9/11 conspiracy. Yes there are inconsistencies or odd data that seem to present the argument that the official story isn't true. You can even make convincing documentaries all day long with open source unclassified data and some "expert testimony." People who have access to the stuff that blows up those theories though know better.

The Ukraine shoot down has been heavily briefed in some circles. I happen to work in one of them.
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Was the missile battery at the time of firing from Ukraine land, held by Ukraine-rebels that were pro-Russian? Or was it fired from Russian land? And the people who operate this missile system: were they Ukrainian who were pro-Russian rebels, or were they Russian soldiers themselves?
 
Lawman said:
What does it gain the United States to demonstrate intelligence capabilities to "prove" what 90% of the world already knows.

They aren't gonna come out and admit it. We don't get some sort of cash prize.

As stated, the evidence is there. The Dutch did a pretty good job of proving exactly that when again, they used the same forensic data that can only produce one conclusion. The positive for us is they did it without us having to show our work, and with it out capabilities.
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Derg had a very good reference about men running with dinosaurs a page or two back.

I'll say this though
- "90% of the world" is only marginally better than "the whole world", which by itself is a very poor reference, since whenever it's used it's never true - there's never a worldwide poll to substantiate the claim and all it does is it takes away from the credibility of the source.
- generally speaking, things like that aren't about coming out and admitting. When you show the kid a half-empty jar of cookies and ask him if he ate them, admitting could shed the light on where the cookies went. Having CCTV footage of the kid eating the cookies from the jar does not require him admitting anything to find out how the jar became half empty. There's still no cash prize, you're right there.
- there's also factual information from Almaz Antey blowing up IL-86 and sheet aluminum. That data contradicts the conclusion.
-
-...
Anyway.. no point arguing - no cash prize in sight. I should just stick to the muffins
 
BigZ said:
Derg had a very good reference about men running with dinosaurs a page or two back.

I'll say this though
- "90% of the world" is only marginally better than "the whole world", which by itself is a very poor reference, since whenever it's used it's never true - there's never a worldwide poll to substantiate the claim and all it does is it takes away from the credibility of the source.
- generally speaking, things like that aren't about coming out and admitting. When you show the kid a half-empty jar of cookies and ask him if he ate them, admitting could shed the light on where the cookies went. Having CCTV footage of the kid eating the cookies from the jar does not require him admitting anything to find out how the jar became half empty. There's still no cash prize, you're right there.
- there's also factual information from Almaz Antey blowing up IL-86 and sheet aluminum. That data contradicts the conclusion.
-
-...
Anyway.. no point arguing - no cash prize in sight. I should just stick to the muffins
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As said, there is nothing to gain from further beating the horse long dead over this on the floor of the UN or in the media. Frankly it doesn't really matter what you or I or anybody else on this thread actually thinks about the truth of the matter in this, because none of us make policy or run countries.

Our allies and nations friendly to us or in dealings with us where this will somehow effect that relationship will get that footage you want released to the public for reinforcement of what the people that matter already know. Russia and its allies won't care.... And what's more their people won't get it because hooray for censorship and subversion.

Sub Point of the matter, not you anybody else on this board trying to argue the possibility it's some sort of hoax perpetrated to cast blame on Russia is in any position to demonstrate data that. The reason being because you don't have access to all that classified (S), and more importantly (TS) data that was used to corroborate them shooting down NH17. You can google all kinds of open source propaganda and "evidence" but you don't even know what data you are trying to refute so it's a lost cause there. Again, we aren't putting it out there because it gives anybody collecting on us a view of our capabilities and understandings of their systems/TTPs/Etc and allows them to confirm whether or not their assumptions on our Intel systems and understandings are correct.



Now if you want to go on telling me how it might be some hoax because we don't come out and "prove" it isn't....Either you are just deliberately being obtuse to the point of this or you are shilling for the Russians because you have something against the US/Ukraine/whatever.
 
Lawman said:
As said, there is nothing to gain from further beating the horse long dead over this on the floor of the UN or in the media. Frankly it doesn't really matter what you or I or anybody else on this thread actually thinks about the truth of the matter in this, because none of us make policy or run countries.

Our allies and nations friendly to us or in dealings with us where this will somehow effect that relationship will get that footage you want released to the public for reinforcement of what the people that matter already know. Russia and its allies won't care.... And what's more their people won't get it because hooray for censorship and subversion.

Sub Point of the matter, not you anybody else on this board trying to argue the possibility it's some sort of hoax perpetrated to cast blame on Russia is in any position to demonstrate data that. The reason being because you don't have access to all that classified (S), and more importantly (TS) data that was used to corroborate them shooting down NH17. You can google all kinds of BS,mbitr you don't even know what data you are trying to refute so it's a lost cause there. Again, we aren't putting it out there because it gives anybody collecting on us a view of our capabilities and understandings of their systems/TTPs/Etc and allows them to confirm whether or not their assumptions on our Intel systems and understandings are correct.



Now if you want to go on telling me how it might be some hoax because we don't come out and "prove" it isn't....Either you are just deliberately being obtuse to the point of this or you are shilling for the Russians because you have something against the US/Ukraine/whatever.
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Nah, I'm cool. Who am I to question (S) and, God forbid, (TS).
I'll go throw away the cookies for ever trying to think, analyze and comprehend stuff.

...
Colin-Powell-holds-uo-a-vial-of-Iraqi-anthrax-at-the-UN-General-Assembly.jpg
 
BigZ said:
Nah, I'm cool. Who am I to question (S) and, God forbid, (TS).
I'll go throw away the cookies for ever trying to think, analyze and comprehend stuff.

...
Colin-Powell-holds-uo-a-vial-of-Iraqi-anthrax-at-the-UN-General-Assembly.jpg
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Yeah dude never give up the pursuit of the truth....

Lord knows everything you are told is a conspiracy...
 

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Lawman said:
Yeah dude never give up the pursuit of the truth....

Lord knows everything you are told is a conspiracy...
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In the light of Powell's emails recently made public (the part where he's bitching about the situation on the posted picture), this is just very amusing.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
Yeah but in Iraq there aren't any known active SAM sites capable of hitting jets in the Flight Levels? That's the difference. Shoulder/manpads type weapons with a vertical range of ~10-15k feet is one thing. But to hit one in the FL350 range would take a sophisticated weapon, which I don't believe is active in Iraq. And if it was a SAM site/battery, I can't imagine the west not taking it out.

The Ukraine threat got very real July 13 (I think?) when they shot down an Antonov from about FL230. If the missile could reach FL230, it sure as hell could reach anything in the 30 thousands. Ukraine responded only by closing the airspace below FL320. Including and above FL330 it was all open. I read Ukraine gets overflight fees so it was in their financial interest to keep their airspace open.
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Well thank God that's what you believe.
My family and friends can rest easy now.

The intel briefs I get were completely wrong and should have come to you for information.
 
Nark said:
Well thank God that's what you believe.
My family and friends can rest easy now.

The intel briefs I get were completely wrong and should have come to you for information.
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Well that's probably why he ended it with a question mark...
 
Seems like our friend doesn't know what a question mark is or is intended for.
He made a statement and added a definitive supporting statement after the question mark.
I gave him the benefit of the doubt about grammar, and took his statement as yet another in a long line of assumptions, in subjects which he has little depth in.

@cherokee cruiser what weapon systems do you think are active in Iraq? Never mind. I'm not going to acknowledge whatever you say. Not because I'm being obtuse, rather I'm not a politician and make up my own rules for compartmental information.
 
On 14 July 2014, a Ukrainian Air Force An-26 transport plane flying at 6,500 m (21,300 ft) was shot down.


Sorry it was July 14. Nark, did you have a point regarding.....?

I'm basing what I wrote just on what IIRC from the news regarding MH17. Talks of shoulder launched weapons and ground-based vehicle / surface to air missile sites. Please correct me if I'm wrong. My understanding is the shoulder launched types are good for up to 10k-15k. And that higher ones (FL200+) are more advanced shot from ground sites. It would jive with when I was at Evergreen and the guys talked about their procedures out of Afghanistan called for getting above 10k ASAP. Please correct me. I'd like to know just how high a threat a shoulder launch type missile would be versus those of ground based radar-type sites or vehicles.

I guessed about Iraq's capability. If there really are sites/vehicles that can launch missiles into the Flight Levels, Iraqi airspace should be closed. If I am a CA of an airliner and a country has a war with the proven capability to launch a missile into the Flight Levels, I'd refuse that flight plan and go around that country in question.

But lucky me, I'm a domestic pilot. The only war zone I fly over is Chicago, and I'm safe from the small arms gunfire.
 
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