4 Years Into the Future

Or a KEG of Shiner Bock. Just don't mix it with other alcohol. Was enough to make one guy swear off alcohol totally. 'Course maybe it was having to clean up that did that to him. :)

Shiner Bock, not a beer for you occasional beer drinker. I wouldn't want to have to clean that up in the morning.
 
One thing, and one thing alone, will kill the VLJ movement: insurance. I wouldn't even consider it four minutes from now.

Heh. They'll be insured by the hour...

I can just see a hotline in the tower cab to Avemco or AIG...

TOWER: "Hi - I've got a guy in a VLJ about 20 miles out. Should be on the ground in 15-20 minutes."
INS CO: "Okay, process his credit card payment and as soon as we've got the binder written, we'll issue you authorization for him to land. The policy will expire in one hour."
TOWER: "VLJ 123X-ray, turn right heading one-six-zero, expect vectors for final, and please proceed with your credit card number for your insurance policy and landing clearance..."
VLJ 123X "Uh...that's American Express three-seven-eight-three...."

Okay. It was funnier in my head. But I'm committed to the post now...
 
it is the (not so) humble opinion of one of my macro econ professors that oil will drop off...maybe tomorrow, maybe 5 years, maybe 20...

his theory is this - high prices cause 2 things:
1)reduction in demand (see: reducing flight schedules, the g'ment numbers this morning about drivers driving a few billion less miles in May, reduction in the amount of plastics used in consumer products, etc)

2) more exploration - if I can sell oil at $130 a barrel, i'm gonna get my hands on as much oil as I can find, digging wherever the world governments will allow

somewhere, they'll over-lap and supply will exceed demand causing a reduction in prices. that, from an outsiders standpoint, would be dandy for any industry that uses lots of gas/diesel/fill in the distillate of your choice.

so is his theory.

my crystal ball is cloudy. does anyone have any windex? :banghead:
 
Hi all

I got a question for all of you on here.


What do you guys think we should expect in about 4 years in the Airline Business?? How will the fuel costs be?? And will there be a need for pilots??

Please everybody give me your opinion!!



The reason i am asking i because i will be finishing my school than and will be ready to look for a Airline Pilot job.


Thanks :):)

There will always be need for pilots. The oil prices will pretty much determine how much they are needed and paid. It has been a growing industry since its inception, and it will still grow. The economy of scale took the charm out of being a pilot, so consider it like being a glorified bus driver or a train engineer, the back bone of economy that none can live without but is taking all the beating all the time.
On the bright side, I'm sure you won't have any problems becoming an airline pilot :)
 
I've been reading alot about how money, investing, and economics really work..

... and I have no idea where the aviation world is going. I can make my best guess.. and in a sense, already have.

Beyond that, you just have to remember that aviation is a commodity, and commodity success rides the cycles of the economy.

I'd say, if you're in this biz already and have the stomach to stick it out, go for it. You're already committed financially. Otherwise, I suggest finding another line of work. Fly for fun, if at all.
 
One thing that has always been a guarantee, is there will be no shortage of pilots and there will be no raises. So if history is a prediction of the future.....
 
I'm personally sorry that you came here and were called an "eastern european troll".

That's not what JC is about. Really.....

You can't predict what will happen in 4 years. And what happens in Europe is completely different than what could happen in the US. I'd suggest you take advice from folks in your area about how best to pursue the career. The career path in Europe varies a lot from the career path in the US.
 
I'm personally sorry that you came here and were called an "eastern european troll".

That's not what JC is about. Really.....


The troll comment was made in jest and it was motivated by the original poster's rude response ( fact that you seem to neglect :rolleyes:) to Mickecweb's post (who was trying to help) The op's reaction (with SJS type comments) seemed the typical troll's bait that every once in a while we see here.

Relax....
 
I imagine that people will still be flying in 4 years, and not purely for business. It is just going to be a matter of what demand will be and if I were a betting man, I'd say short of an unmitigated economic/political/environmental disaster, it will probably be higher than it is today. How much is anyone's guess.

Simply put, the industry is going through a low point in their business cycle, alongside the rest of the economy as a whole. If you really want to do this, don't let today's market conditions dictate what you're going to be doing in 4-5 years. Just have a plan B worked out if things don't turn out the way you thought they would.
 
Oh, it was NOT pretty. Glad it wasn't me that made that mess. It was, unfortunately, my bathroom.

LOL!!!!!!! oh man. What a New Years Eve that was.........


ryanmickG said:
You can take the boy out of Texas...................

One of these days I'm going to bring my wife down to GKY. We're going to rent a 172 and fly to the Hard 8. Nobody should be deprived of that experience. I might even let her drive the golf cart.
 
Simply put, the industry is going through a low point in their business cycle, alongside the rest of the economy as a whole. If you really want to do this, don't let today's market conditions dictate what you're going to be doing in 4-5 years. Just have a plan B worked out if things don't turn out the way you thought they would.

I will add this: be prepared to deal with a down market every 6-10 years. And if you get involved with airline flying, keep in mind that your level of job security will largely be a matter of luck.
 
All I can say is that 4 years sounds about right for the new target to go from zero hours to the right seat of an RJ.
 
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