$200 bucks a barrel

[B767Driver]

To what B767 said, I don't think it is a bubble, I think we are just having to compete more over less fuel.

There's no supply issues and the big oil companies are not setting the price. It's speculators running up the price compounded with the dollar valuation. To me, the principles add up to a bubble.

 

[derg]

I thinks there's been a huge bubble that's been created waiting to burst.

My sentiments exactly.

Oil futures sound a lot like real estate did last year.

There is NO supply problem, only speculation on a supply problem.

 

[wingnut]

First, the economy is almost always a self-fulfilling prophecy. As long as people believe that oil will hit $200/barrel, speculators will buy now under the assumption oil will hit $200/barrel because somehow have already come to accept the fact the oil will be at that price. As soon as people believe that oil will fall in price, investors will back off. Also, as said before, it's very common for investors to jump at commodities when the dollar is worth nothing.

The CEO of BP said about nine months ago that he believes oil will fall back to around $40/barrel within the next 5 years. I don't think it's a coincidence that the oil forecast of $200/barrel is set out by Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment firms in the world.

 

[Lee D]

I agree with the reasons for current prices. I do hope it is a bubble. Though the real estate and tech bubbles were more in the West. This is more of a world wide thing and might be more complex. Personally I don't think even existing prices can be sustained, long term, in the world economy. The effects are trickling down to nearly everything and something will give at some point. $200 would be very messy. I doubt current average earnings in the US & world could sustain that level for long.