120,000 New Airline Pilots Needed in US Through 2017

gurisudenko

gurisudenko

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From Aviation Week and Space Technology, May 22, 2006 Page 51

AW&ST's James Ott recently wrote an article regarding a Fltops.com study, which reveals very encouraging news for those of us looking to fly professionally.

Some of the figures:

120,000 new airline pilots forecasted to be needed by 2017 (FAA's fleet forecast, which Fltops.com used in its study)

67,000 of these pilots will be needed by projected growth ALONE...
53,000 pilots will be needed due to retirement (if the Age 60 rule stays)

It's a long article, but the most interesting part to me was the idea that aviation educators have been disussing: A national aviation academy to meet the projected demand for professional pilots through 2017, in lieu of declining military-trained entrants and very high training costs. This aviation academy would be available to "deserving" students with government support. (I would like to know how they plan to standardize their requirements...) Bill McCurry, Chair of the Aeronautical Management Technology Department at Arizona State University, was one that AW&ST had spoken to about this.

The final report is scheduled for August, and is supposedly the first in its kind, being an analysis of US pilot supply and demand. Wonderful article if you can get your hands on it. If it's not online (http://www.aviationnow.com), I will type the whole thing out for you all if you want me to. But right now I'm at the office trying to do a million things at once.

Just thought it would be cool to share :)
 
Champcar:

After speaking with some who have been involved in numerous facets of professional flight, I can see easier what you mean by that. Supposedly back around 1996 the idea of a centralized national academy was brought to the attention of larger government authorities or something of that nature, and then nothing was done? Hmm. Don't know too much about that but I can begin (in my very very young, student-type industry experience) to recognize some of the patterns prevalent around here.

And then...some airlines don't treat their pilots very well...so that would be a variable that I'm not sure either fltops.com or the FAA took into account in their studies.

Even so...

It's interesting. Instead of a national aviation academy, I would like to see more local measures being taken if the points made in these studies prove to be strong enough - loan forgiveness programs (worked with pharmacist shortages from what I hear), other measures taken LOCALLY with established civilian training entities.

The fact that these projections are post 9/11 is encouraging at least by itself.

But who knows - I'm waiting for the final report.
 
And with pilot salaries where they are at right now...let's see....120,000 X $12.0 a day = with all the money these guys are saving by hiring low-time guys that are willing to buy a job or two, I think all the fellas from marketing might be able to reward themselves with a new porsche.
 
I think Pilot Salaries will keep getting lower and lower. To many people will do the job for too little money.
 
I would hope that FAA's projected fleet growth would imply future airline growth, which would imply improved financial standings for airlines, which would in turn mean a reduction in cost cutting efforts, which would put its pilots back in salary brackets commensurate with their education and training.

...*I would hope*

Call me a dreamer, but I don't think all of this bad stuff is going to last forever.
 
Mavmb said:
I think Pilot Salaries will keep getting lower and lower. To many people will do the job for too little money.
Click to expand...

The worst thing ever for the industry!

Once you have your commerical license, you're a professional and should be compensated at such. It's hard to tell someone with shiny jet syndrome to stay away because they will not be respected as they should be given the time, money, blood, sweat, and tears they have put into their training.

Another can of worms!
 
Way too big of a can of worms, but very good you realize it. Now if we could get others to realize it, then maybe we'll get some where...:( ;)
 
gurisudenko said:
The worst thing ever for the industry!

Once you have your commerical license, you're a professional and should be compensated at such. It's hard to tell someone with shiny jet syndrome to stay away because they will not be respected as they should be given the time, money, blood, sweat, and tears they have put into their training.

Another can of worms!
Click to expand...
Anyone given enough time and money can get their commercial license. Pilot salary is determined by more then just the training they have. If you want to pay people according to how hard they work then there are a lot of blue collar workers who should be making more then pilots. SJS has a lot to do with why regional pilots are so poor.
 
It's not necessarily how hard they work that I think should dictate their salary - anyone can work hard. There are too many variables that I would imagine are the dertermining factor in pilot compensation, cost-cutting efforts probably dominating in areas of airline outfits.

I agree with you whole-heartedly when it comes to the shiny jet syndrome. The fact that some are willing to give in to SJS isn't helping the decision-makers change their ways, that's for sure.

What I'm trying to convey is a simple, innocent concept that sadly isn't widely adopted - that the acquisition of a commercial license means you can and SHOULD be paid for providing a service you have trained to provide to people. Anyone in any profession deserves to be recognized and compensated as a professional once they have obtained the necessary education and training. This concept definitely isn't unique to aviation.

:mad: I also wish blue collar workers were given more respect in our society. If your job is to pave the road, install electrical systems in buildings, cut the grass, repair plumbing, build bridges...that's a REAL job right there. Talk about people we couldn't live without!

All in all, everyone is pretty dang important in our economical structure and workforce. I think it all comes down to public concepts (which are almost ALWAYS skewed and unfair) - and that goes into marketing, and companies trying to please them...which can affect anyone in any company.

Then again, the relationship I was trying to express is generally reversed for pilots. There is so much status and allure that the public attaches to airline pilots, especially. Then upper management quietly cuts at whatever they can, stepping in a grey area trying not to let the public see too much.

:yeahthat: But everyone already knows that...at least "here".
 
gurisudenko said:
What I'm trying to convey is a simple, innocent concept that sadly isn't widely adopted - that the acquisition of a commercial license means you can and SHOULD be paid for providing a service you have trained to provide to people. Anyone in any profession deserves to be recognized and compensated as a professional once they have obtained the necessary education and training. This concept definitely isn't unique to aviation.
Click to expand...

You're right, it's not unique to aviation, but I differ with you slight on your idea of "SHOULD" be paid for providing a service. I think that is a problem in the world today is that people think that just because they CAN provide a service they have some God given right to earn money for it. There is no such right, hence why poverty exists. Try telling a homeless person on the street that since you have a commerical license (or when you do) that you "should" earn a triple digit salary because of it. Are they any less deserving as a human being just because maybe their family couldn't afford to put them through flight training, med school, law school, etc? I don't believe so. Sure, putting forth effort yields rewards, as it should, but sometimes people take it too far.

There are pilots in the world who are far more qualified than you or I that are earning nearly nothing flying impoverished sick people to hospitals in third world countries. Those people maybe know that they can earn a better living, but they don't because they'd rather do stuff like deliver the baby of an impoverished South American woman in the back seat of a 172 WHILE flying! (True story) They're no less deserving than you or I, but their idea of getting compensated for what they do is slightly different than ours.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say you SHOULDN'T be paid, and paid well for your services. I'm just as guilty as everyone else hoping that I can use my training and services to a lucrative end. I say go for the best you can, but go with the attitude that you want to be a pilot to be a pilot and not just to make tons of money hopefully. With that attitude, hopefully you can be happy anywhere.
 
Oh, I wasn't even touching that area of the issue with a twelve foot pole.

That's the key word, "should". In an ideal world, that's what should happen when people are trained adequately to provide a service. Then I believe you DO have to work for it, as competition is the backbone of all business and economic structures. And yes, some people can't because of circumstances far beyond their control. But that area is far beyond what I focused on here.

There are many shoulds, and in the area you introduce, a LOT more.

In my own analysis of these issues, I'm taking into account the vast majority middle class/working class United States sector. I feel I would have been far too diluted and out of scope to discuss it from any other viewpoints, because then there are variables which I can't necessarily speak for with regard to the article I read.

If you just throw in the possibility that the FAA didn't account for projected airline employee turnover rates, that alone is enough to completely reset the scene for the study conducted and covered by AW&ST. It may even negate its purpose in the publication. The ideas you introduce take it to another level that it wasn't even really created for, although it was created WITHIN the framework (indirectly) of what you speak of.
 
I think it is kinda sleazy that some pilots get paid in experience more then salary so they can get another job where they will get paid in experience again. I agree something is wrong when you see someone with as much training and schooling as a pilot using food stamps. This is just part of a trend toward discount airlines. Maybe informing the public is a good place to start but you won't see anyone crying for the pilots who make $100,000 a year even if they use to make $175,000, especially after this union thing with delta. Maybe if the FAA made a high minimum time for 121 it would help. Although it isn't the an FAA responsibility to make sure pilots have a comfortable lifestyle and if they get involved it will only be for safety reasons since some guys are getting hired with no actual instrument time. To force them to act there will need to be a series of high profile crashes where low time pilots made mistakes.
 
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