UA ask pilots to take unpaid time off

[derg]

We’re not in a shortage, at the moment.

2022-2023 is a very unique time in aviation and the era of the 23 year old 1500h pilot sitting in ground school at one of the “big three” has come to a close.

Not saying “surplus” at all, but 2023 was like the California Gold Rush and now we’re seeing things start to rationalize again. But the average ‘competitive’ hours are well, WELL north of where they were a year ago the higher up the food chain you look and that will eventually flown down to the second and third tier carriers through late 23 and early 24, especially as the regionals solve their “captain shortage” issue which solves the overages in the regional FO corner.

 

[MikeD]

We’re not in a shortage, at the moment.

2022-2023 is a very unique time in aviation and the era of the 23 year old 1500h pilot sitting in ground school at one of the “big three” has come to a close.

Not saying “surplus” at all, but 2023 was like the California Gold Rush and now we’re seeing things start to rationalize again. But the average ‘competitive’ hours are well, WELL north of where they were a year ago the higher up the food chain you look and that will eventually flown down to the second and third tier carriers through late 23 and early 24, especially as the regionals solve their “captain shortage” issue which solves the overages in the regional FO corner.

And then……the pendulum swings further back to the $18,000/year Regional pilot with zero upward mobility prospects.

And from on high, Jonathan Ornstein smiles his approval.

 

[Roger Roger]

We’re not in a shortage, at the moment.

2022-2023 is a very unique time in aviation and the era of the 23 year old 1500h pilot sitting in ground school at one of the “big three” has come to a close.

Not saying “surplus” at all, but 2023 was like the California Gold Rush and now we’re seeing things start to rationalize again. But the average ‘competitive’ hours are well, WELL north of where they were a year ago the higher up the food chain you look and that will eventually flown down to the second and third tier carriers through late 23 and early 24, especially as the regionals solve their “captain shortage” issue which solves the overages in the regional FO corner.

Yeah, on the one hand I really regret that I didn’t push hard for my current gig a year earlier, but on the other I’m glad I got in when I did and it definitely feels like I slid in under the wire so to speak.

 

[derg]

Yeah, on the one hand I really regret that I didn’t push hard for my current gig a year earlier, but on the other I’m glad I got in when I did and it definitely feels like I slid in under the wire so to speak.

Everyone will be fine and will experience impressive growth. HOWEVER, if people were expecting “Starting ATP Academy today, makin’ my TikTok dance video challenge from the left seat of a Boeing tomorrow”, well, not so much.

I still record numbers, but 2023 was an anomalous “spike”.

 

[JDean3204]

Yeah, on the one hand I really regret that I didn’t push hard for my current gig a year earlier, but on the other I’m glad I got in when I did and it definitely feels like I slid in under the wire so to speak.

I dunno man, you and I are pretty low on this list. A good hiccup and we could both be on the street, sure hope not but it doesn’t feel very safe for the time being. I’m also a worry wart so there’s that.

 

[derg]

I dunno man, you and I are pretty low on this list. A good hiccup and we could both be on the street, sure hope not but it doesn’t feel very safe for the time being. I’m also a worry wart so there’s that.

Don’t worry. I spent a vast majority of my career wondering “what if what if what if” and, looking back, it was just wasted energy.

 

[JDean3204]

Don’t worry. I spent a vast majority of my career wondering “what if what if what if” and, looking back, it was just wasted energy.

I know, you’ve even told me that previously, but a few hundred more people below me (500 maybe) would help a bit. I think the worrying is genetic at this point haha

Edit**

Even then I’d worry for those behind me, because I don’t want to see anyone get here just to have to leave for as long as it may be.

 

[JordanD]

I dunno man, you and I are pretty low on this list. A good hiccup and we could both be on the street, sure hope not but it doesn’t feel very safe for the time being. I’m also a worry wart so there’s that.

I’m of the view that there are plenty more jobs outside of aviation that are just as susceptible if not more so to layoffs. Look at tech. Look how many big companies downsize or outsource. AI will be running accounting departments long before “Mr. Roboto” is sitting in your seat. All while we have 401k contributions that the average person could only dream of. I’m not saying run down to the Ferrari and Boat Emporium tomorrow, and we should all absolutely build an emergency fund when we can, but constantly stressing about being at the bottom of the list somewhere is no way to live. And that’s coming from a lifetime worry wort who at times has given Eeyore and Debbie Downer a run for their money.
I wish I took this advice sooner in my career, but enjoy life, enjoy where you’re at.

 

[JordanD]

Can you provide a link to that, please?

“Once again labor is being paid before the shareholders.”

 

[Minuteman]

What's the cycle for the military to swing between RIFs and stop-loss? Four years?

 

[derg]

I know, you’ve even told me that previously, but a few hundred more people below me (500 maybe) would help a bit. I think the worrying is genetic at this point haha

Edit**

Even then I’d worry for those behind me, because I don’t want to see anyone get here just to have to leave for as long as it may be.

I literally have 15,000 pilots “behind me” and 2,000 acceleratedly-retiring pilots in front of me, I still pop the news on for 30 seconds in the morning to be sure I’m employed!

 

[MikeD]

I dunno man, you and I are pretty low on this list. A good hiccup and we could both be on the street, sure hope not but it doesn’t feel very safe for the time being. I’m also a worry wart so there’s that.

“Worry is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do, but gets you nowhere.”

 

[JDean3204]

I’m of the view that there are plenty more jobs outside of aviation that are just as susceptible if not more so to layoffs. Look at tech. Look how many big companies downsize or outsource. AI will be running accounting departments long before “Mr. Roboto” is sitting in your seat. All while we have 401k contributions that the average person could only dream of. I’m not saying run down to the Ferrari and Boat Emporium tomorrow, and we should all absolutely build an emergency fund when we can, but constantly stressing about being at the bottom of the list somewhere is no way to live. And that’s coming from a lifetime worry wort who at times has given Eeyore and Debbie Downer a run for their money.
I wish I took this advice sooner in my career, but enjoy life, enjoy where you’re at.

An emergency fund? What’s that??

Solid advice my friend. Thanks

 

[MikeD]

Everyone will be fine and will experience impressive growth. HOWEVER, if people were expecting “Starting ATP Academy today, makin’ my TikTok dance video challenge from the left seat of a Boeing tomorrow”, well, not so much.

I still record numbers, but 2023 was an anomalous “spike”.

Time to break out the vanilla sheet cakes to bring in…..

 

[JDean3204]

I literally have 15,000 pilots “behind me” and 2,000 acceleratedly-retiring pilots in front of me, I still pop the news on for 30 seconds in the morning to be sure I’m employed!

So what you’re saying is we have similar genetics as far as worrying then.

 

[derg]

So what you’re saying is we have similar genetics as far as worrying then.

Maybe! Worrying doesn’t affect probability. 9/11 proves that you will have an unscathed career or you will not, the cosmos is indifferent to how we feel about it!

 

[killbilly]

Yeah, on the one hand I really regret that I didn’t push hard for my current gig a year earlier, but on the other I’m glad I got in when I did and it definitely feels like I slid in under the wire so to speak.

Every day I go to work I feel like I'm getting away with something. And yeah, I do feel like I just squeezed into the elevator before the door shut.

I'm as junior as you can be without being an actual plug, so yeah, an industry sneeze could wreck it all. Which is why I am approaching every day on the job with both gratitude and a nearly pathological desire to get better at it.

Better at the job. And better at gratitude.

 

[derg]

Every day I go to work I feel like I'm getting away with something. And yeah, I do feel like I just squeezed into the elevator before the door shut.

I'm as junior as you can be without being an actual plug, so yeah, an industry sneeze could wreck it all. Which is why I am approaching every day on the job with both gratitude and a nearly pathological desire to get better at it.

Better at the job. And better at gratitude.

Life experience, appreciation for where you are, remembrance of where you came from. And a good taste of the non-aviation working environment!

 

[JDean3204]

Every day I go to work I feel like I'm getting away with something. And yeah, I do feel like I just squeezed into the elevator before the door shut.

I'm as junior as you can be without being an actual plug, so yeah, an industry sneeze could wreck it all. Which is why I am approaching every day on the job with both gratitude and a nearly pathological desire to get better at it.

Better at the job. And better at gratitude.

That is exactly how I feel. I drive north on the 5 with some awesome views of the Pacific Ocean to go to work, go fly fun jets around and then come home to what feels like paradise that I could only afford with this job. The fact that my company retirement contributions a paycheck trump my entire paychecks the first two years of this career is nuts.

I like it so much, I’m afraid to lose it. My challenge is working on a healthy dose of gratitude with less anxiety in thoughts of things are too good to be true, these things don’t happen to me, it’s similar to imposture syndrome. Though I know I’ve put my time in, been working one way or another towards the career since 2007. It’s a daily challenge in mindset for sure.

 

[///AMG]

I dunno man, you and I are pretty low on this list. A good hiccup and we could both be on the street, sure hope not but it doesn’t feel very safe for the time being. I’m also a worry wart so there’s that.

Meh, I've been here just under 2 years, (may 22 baby) am at about 70% company wide, and I'd still be worried if the music stopped. Not to say that your point isn't right, but more that Roger wouldn't be significantly more bullet proof had he arrived a year earlier. Of course every single seniority # can matter in that scenario (I've heard the stories), but if it were a broad long-duration event, I don't think I'd be close to being safe. Our hiring was wild for our airline, but compared to the others, not as insane.