So I’m feeling a bit better (been doing some medical stuff) and would really like to talk about this stuff as it’s related to what I’m doing… I’ll be brief for now before going back to homework.
Suffice it to say,”this is coming” it’s right around the corner, your careers are probably safe for legal reasons and practical reasons, but I bet we see single-pilot 121 cockpits far faster than many folks would think. That’s ok, it’ll be really cool. Maybe the Airbus A420 will be single pilot - I’m only half kidding.
As for self-driving… it’s going to be a bit because it’s even harder than flying. By a lot, that said, that'll probably come first because of how many companies are working on it and the rewards if someone can get it right. We're close but probably not close enough.
I participated in a self-driving robot challenge / semester project last semester. Even lane identification is challenging to get to human levels. Not impossible but getting our crappy robot to drive around a taped off track was not trivial. There are lots of layers to the software, and they all have to work and not confuse each other.
Not only that, computer vision is really • hard. It’s what I’m studying in grad school - it’s not impossible - in principle it’s easy just a series of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), but it’s that AND you have to get it to work in a partially observable environment filled with other (unpredictable) agents - oh and the environment is changing constantly. There’s weather and road raging other drivers and poor vehicle maintenance, and grease on the cameras... yeah - it is not a trivial task.
That, and it’s not enough to be better than a human, that we can do - we need to be so much better than a human so that it’s indistinguishable from perfect before most people and regulators will trust it enough to not have other problems. You think mode confusion and complacency is bad in the airplane? Wait until Randy is using his Tesla to drunk drive home.
Tie that in with how unpredictable the actual operating environment is and it will be a bit before you don’t own a car and just use ubiquitous Johnny Cabs.
I guess this is all to say, "this is going to happen" it's going to be badass, no I don't think you guys will lose your jobs... but maybe the career won't exist in the same way as it does now (or to the extent it exists now) in 30 years.
I actually think that center controllers are a lot more likely to be automation targets too. That may actually be an easier hurdle to clear than automating the flight crew. Anyway, gotta have dinner then do stats homework.