Aircraft Down in San Diego (Dec 27)

Is there any evidence of a stall/spin? I was mostly with the AOPA guy til that point. This accident has scanned as VFR -> IMC (or loss of SA) -> CFIT rather than LOC-I, to me, though I suppose the difference becomes pretty slim when you get down low...?

Does anyone know the formal differentiation between the two?
 
Is there any evidence of a stall/spin? I was mostly with the AOPA guy til that point. This accident has scanned as VFR -> IMC (or loss of SA) -> CFIT rather than LOC-I, to me, though I suppose the difference becomes pretty slim when you get down low...?

Does anyone know the formal differentiation between the two?
Loss of control inflight is loss of control inflight.

I’d call a stall/spin that you aren’t planning on doing a loss of control inflight. EASA, ICAO and IATA all consider a stall an LOC-I.

CFIT is an airplane that is under control hitting terrain through a crew inaction.
 
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From my understanding, if you listen to the ATC tapes and hear the pilot's last seconds of transmissions, a LOC might be more likely than CFIT. Personally have not listened to it...

There’s also a nest doorbell camera video (linked earlier in the thread) that captured the last seconds. While it isn’t definitive it looked like a very nose low/wing low attitude you’d get post accelerated stall, and combined with the poor guys’ hot mic paints a pretty consistent picture of what happened. Just calling it LOC-I is kind of a disservice to the experience of the crew when probable spatial disorientation, low unreported weather and eventual evasive maneuvering to avoid CFIT towards the end of the circle is probably what actually happened, but the LOC-I is the ultimate mechanism that led to the crash. And I'm glad you didn’t listen, it was awful. :(

Edit: Link to the footage, two angles. Doorbell Video Captures Fireball After Learjet Crash Near El Cajon

The low cloud layer is pretty apparent that they come out of towards the end of the circle, as is the 1200 ft hill.
 
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Could be either one. If they were flying a controlled circle maneuver / traffic pattern and descended into obstacles or terrain due to loss of SA or channelized attention, it’d be CFIT. If there was any loss of control due to crew actions (or if there was some other causal factor with the airplane, or both), it’d be LOC. if there was a CVR, that would reveal much more as to which.
 
From my understanding, if you listen to the ATC tapes and hear the pilot's last seconds of transmissions, a LOC might be more likely than CFIT. Personally have not listened to it...

I have, and it sounded like a pilot going into a neighborhood. Very similar to the last words of, say, UPS 1354. Or a whole bunch of others.

Loss of control inflight is loss of control inflight.

Gee, thanks.

I’d call a stall/spin that you aren’t planning on doing a loss of control inflight. EASA, ICAO and IATA all consider a stall an LOC-I.

That's great.

CFIT is an airplane that is under control hitting terrain through a crew inaction.

Since you didn't seem to take my question seriously, enjoy treating me like a dumbass, or both, let me be more specific:
Let's say I'm VFR into IMC, and I fly myself into an unrecoverable situation while pointing at a mountain. I see trees coming up in the windscreen, and I frantically yank back on the yoke, add full power, and depart controlled flight the instant before impact. Despite placing the aircraft in an unrecoverable situation during controlled flight, are you saying definitively that my last second actions have now turned what would have been a CFIT into a LOC-I?

It appears to me that the pilot's chosen pattern altitude converged first with clouds and then with the ground.

But perhaps I should just consult the dictionary next time, instead.
 
I have, and it sounded like a pilot going into a neighborhood. Very similar to the last words of, say, UPS 1354. Or a whole bunch of others.



Gee, thanks.



That's great.



Since you didn't seem to take my question seriously, enjoy treating me like a dumbass, or both, let me be more specific:
Let's say I'm VFR into IMC, and I fly myself into an unrecoverable situation while pointing at a mountain. I see trees coming up in the windscreen, and I frantically yank back on the yoke, add full power, and depart controlled flight the instant before impact. Despite placing the aircraft in an unrecoverable situation during controlled flight, are you saying definitively that my last second actions have now turned what would have been a CFIT into a LOC-I?

It appears to me that the pilot's chosen pattern altitude converged first with clouds and then with the ground.

But perhaps I should just consult the dictionary next time, instead.

Yikes.
 
Since you didn't seem to take my question seriously, enjoy treating me like a dumbass, or both, let me be more specific:
Let's say I'm VFR into IMC, and I fly myself into an unrecoverable situation while pointing at a mountain. I see trees coming up in the windscreen, and I frantically yank back on the yoke, add full power, and depart controlled flight the instant before impact. Despite placing the aircraft in an unrecoverable situation during controlled flight, are you saying definitively that my last second actions have now turned what would have been a CFIT into a LOC-I?

It appears to me that the pilot's chosen pattern altitude converged first with clouds and then with the ground.

But perhaps I should just consult the dictionary next time, instead.

this is why I’m inclined to say it could be either one, or even one primary to the other…..but both present; as barring evidence of a loss of aircraft control due to a conscious action taken by the pilot…..such as an overshooting final turn that isn’t accepted or taken around, and is instead turned into an attempt to salvage where the pilot pro-actively undertakes a planned maneuver and places the plane into an out of control situation; barring that kind of a situation, which would be loss of control, then it would more than likely be CFIT.

your example here reads to me more as a CFIT example. In that, to me, you are flying a planned flight path, and whether through loss of SA or channelized attention, or getting behind the jet, you don’t notice until too late that you’re being squeezed between the undercast and obstacles/ground and go IMC. At that moment, the action you take when you see trees, which places the aircraft into an out of control, or a departure from controlled flight situation just before impact, was a reactive action that was merely the last second end-state of what had been up to that point, fully controlled flight in terms of aircraft control. To me, the overall of your situation would be CFIT, but there would be a secondary contributing factor of a loss of control that prevented avoiding the CFIT. Hence how the two can be intertwined. And a circle to land or a low traffic pattern, is one of the most common where these two factors can inter-relate. In fact, this is exactly how it played out on an accident investigation I was part of for an emergency landing that crashed short of the runway, with the pilot having to bail out last second.
 
From my understanding, if you listen to the ATC tapes and hear the pilot's last seconds of transmissions, a LOC might be more likely than CFIT. Personally have not listened to it...

I listened.

My take is it could either be CFIT or LOC from stall…
 
or a combo of the two. In certain situations or phases of flight, as described above, the two concepts can share the same space at nearly the same time.

Oh totally- realize you’re gonna CFIT and pull just a little too hard to get away.

I haven’t been to the crash site but I’ve wondered if that was what happened with the Ravn Van by togiak, because the copilot side yoke is left of the left side of the airplane…
 
this is why I’m inclined to say it could be either one, or even one primary to the other…..but both present; as barring evidence of a loss of aircraft control due to a conscious action taken by the pilot…..such as an overshooting final turn that isn’t accepted or taken around, and is instead turned into an attempt to salvage where the pilot pro-actively undertakes a planned maneuver and places the plane into an out of control situation; barring that kind of a situation, which would be loss of control, then it would more than likely be CFIT.

your example here reads to me more as a CFIT example. In that, to me, you are flying a planned flight path, and whether through loss of SA or channelized attention, or getting behind the jet, you don’t notice until too late that you’re being squeezed between the undercast and obstacles/ground and go IMC. At that moment, the action you take when you see trees, which places the aircraft into an out of control, or a departure from controlled flight situation just before impact, was a reactive action that was merely the last second end-state of what had been up to that point, fully controlled flight in terms of aircraft control. To me, the overall of your situation would be CFIT, but there would be a secondary contributing factor of a loss of control that prevented avoiding the CFIT. Hence how the two can be intertwined. And a circle to land or a low traffic pattern, is one of the most common where these two factors can inter-relate. In fact, this is exactly how it played out on an accident investigation I was part of for an emergency landing that crashed short of the runway, with the pilot having to bail out last second.

Thank you for the thoughtful response. It parallels my thought process—if the airplane is flown under control to a point where no outcome is possible other than a crash, it seems disingenuous to list it as primarily a LOC-I accident. I didn't hear a shaker on the audio, though that doesn't mean there wasn't one.

I was a bit surprised by the stall-spin conjecture, and was wondering where it came from.
 
Could you hear a stick shaker at all? I'd rather not watch the video.
No - but there’s an “oh S” followed by a second or two and then screaming.

That said a tight enough turn and a hard enough pull and you could get both.

A other thing that came to my mind is the first comment might be inadvertent IMC in a turn and a total loss of SA, the screaming may be after breaking out of the clouds…. Hard to tell.

But as I said in another thread, none of us are getting out of this thing alive. Hug your kids - there but for the Grace of God (or FSM if that’s your thing) go I.

Im entirely speculating but imagine the FO is flying captain is working the radios. Heads down in the cockpit or fiddling with the FMS. Looks up and realizes they’re IMC, tries to get some SA, can’t before they break out of the clouds low level, then screaming.

Could be a lot of different things. My gut suggests stall given the ADS-B track, but a high bank angle turn in the clouds can build descent rate quick.
 
Thank you for the thoughtful response. It parallels my thought process—if the airplane is flown under control to a point where no outcome is possible other than a crash, it seems disingenuous to list it as primarily a LOC-I accident. I didn't hear a shaker on the audio, though that doesn't mean there wasn't one.

I was a bit surprised by the stall-spin conjecture, and was wondering where it came from.

Agreed. And that is one of the ways the primary causal, secondary, and even tertiary (though unlikely to ever fall into this last category) factors could be organized when it came to accident scenarios where both a CFIT as well as a loss of control, were indeed factors; often with the former preceding the latter, or the latter “sealing the fate” of the former where the CFIT might have been potentially recovered otherwise due to available altitude/speed/lack of obstructions, were it not for the pilot finishing the job so to speak.

As to stall/spin conjecture; I do know that in these types of accidents……circle to land ending up in impact with the ground, or a VFR pattern ending up same; in the absence of evidence pointing in a clear direction (no CVR/FDR, no radio comms, no witnesses, for example), the stall/spin scenario is one of a few considered as possibilities. Granted, there has to be some sort of evidence for that, or any other factor(s), to become the primary or secondary factors, but being that it is one of the common scenarios for that type of an accident event, it is something that will be considered if nothing else is known. Of course, I had no trouble listing an accident cause as “unknown” if it was truly not known by the evidence available what conclusively occurred or the lack of what we called “clear and convincing” evidentiary factors; and potential scenarios would be offered as possible causal factors. But some accident investigators hated listing a probable cause as unknown.
 
Have to assume those who think this accident was CFIT didn’t see the doorbell video.

To me, student pilot 101 training, textbook base to final accelerated stall. Appears from the track the aircraft was overshooting final and the turn needed to be tightened. LOC, the aircraft entered a stall, a spin was developing when the aircraft impacted the ground.

TODAY we all know, getting a rental car at KSNA and making the 90 drive home was the best option. But faced with info the crew had before departing and WX observation(s) while enroute how many here would have tried the same? I‘ll even bet the crew has done this many times before when there is a marine layer, which has very consistent bases.
 

doccloud sets off alarms in my environment. here is the link from the NTSB:


And the prelim report link:
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-repgen/api/Aviation/ReportMain/GenerateNewestReport/104445/pdf


".... Examination of the accident site revealed that the airplane struck a set of power lines and subsequently impacted the yard of a residential home about 1.43 nautical miles east of the approach end of runway 27R....."
 
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