Bird vs C172

[mrivc211]

Man, I’ve got the skills and equipment to do a lot of refurb work myself, I should try flipping one

The easy part is the refurb. The hard part is finding the right plane to buy lol. It requires a long list of guys that have ears on the ground that call you and you must be ready to buy at a moments notice. Most of my catches have been just being at the right place at the right time. My buddy that owns a charter company was flying at an FBO on a SNA-HPN trip he just happened to be on. He started chatting up a guy at the FBO counter, turns out the guy is a CFO of thee largest credit card company in the world. They were selling their S-76. He ended up buying it the next day for $1.2M, its going on controller for $2.75M+. He doesnt need the money so he's been flying it around a little before he sells it. A lot of this is pure luck. Right place at the right time.

 

[Richman]

Dude it’s absolutely insane pricing right now. I’m in the middle of doing a complete refurbish on a Piper Cherokee. It’s gonna command $120k

This. Most of the more common makes/models are essentially “sold out”. Lots of refurbing what would have been salvage a year ago. Now random makes/models are being refurbed. There’s a Beech Sierra, of all things, that’s at my field. It’s been fully restored, new paint, interior, engine, avionics (750 w/ 2 G5s). Thing looks better than it probably did rolling off the factory floor.

What was more shocking was the speed the market tightened. Planes fall into various “buckets” like “needs nothing”, “needs avionics/paint/engine”, “needs more than one thing”, “needs everything including your retirement savings”. Prices for each bucket have jumped a sprocket and total basket cases are getting serious money.

The market was humming along pretty well for the past 18 months, with “popular” makes commanding the dollars until about 4 months ago. Now everything is just nuts. Even the left-for-dead piston twin market is getting top dollar. I’ve seen guys sell the planes they just bought 6 months ago and netting $50k off the deal. Crazy.

I’m getting ready to make some changes in residence, so I put my airplane up for sale. It sold in 2 days at full ask, which was more than I paid for it. I’m in the spot now where I can’t buy what I just sold. I’m going to have to wait out this cycle.

 

[mrivc211]

The old timers on my field still think a 172 isn’t worth 50k lol. Meanwhile 150’s are being listed for $42k lol

 

[Richman]

The old timers on my field still think a 172 isn’t worth 50k lol. Meanwhile 150’s are being listed for $42k lol

Different times breed different cats. Back after the financial collapse in 2008, I started looking for my airplane. There were a lot of guys and gals who had purchased during the “airplanes are appreciating assets” phase that wouldn’t recognize the market had changed.

Lots of planes were pushed into the back of hangars and the doors padlocked waiting for better times. I hope those folks made up the carrying cost for the past 13 years with what they’re getting today.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

The old timers on my field still think a 172 isn’t worth 50k lol. Meanwhile 150’s are being listed for $42k lol

Everyone seems to want to buy a 150 or 152 for chump change to time build. I recently found out the market for PA-23 Apache's is about $25k. If I had the money to buy and maintain, I'd buy one of those, and build that sweet, sweet multi time.

 

[mrivc211]

Everyone seems to want to buy a 150 or 152 for chump change to time build. I recently found out the market for PA-23 Apache's is about $25k. If I had the money to buy and maintain, I'd buy one of those, and build that sweet, sweet multi time.

Be careful. I’ve stayed away from many airplanes simply because of a lack of parts out there.
I tried buying tires for my 172 3 weeks ago, they said sept 17 delivery date. I checked on the 19th where my tires were, new delivery date: December 19th. And even that’s questionable. I immediately got on the phone with my back up vender. “I got 12 left in all of socal”. I scooped them right up. In the past 30 days, I’ve stocked up on about $25k worth of parts inventory simply because it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
I looked at the Apache and passed on it because it’s not being supported very well with parts.

 

[Maximilian_Jenius]

Be careful. I’ve stayed away from many airplanes simply because of a lack of parts out there.
I tried buying tires for my 172 3 weeks ago, they said sept 17 delivery date. I checked on the 19th where my tires were, new delivery date: December 19th. And even that’s questionable. I immediately got on the phone with my back up vender. “I got 12 left in all of socal”. I scooped them right up. In the past 30 days, I’ve stocked up on about $25k worth of parts inventory simply because it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
I looked at the Apache and passed on it because it’s not being supported very well with parts.

I said if I had the money for purchase and maintenance. Which I don't for such a frivolous purchase.

 

[F9DXER]

I had a possible bird strike departing a local airport at night about a week ago. Was about 100ft in the air when I saw 5 objects in the beam of the landing light.
Felt a thud under the cowl. Motor didn't flinch and no unusual vibrations or sounds so kept on going. Landed about an hour later and took
a look but didn't see anything obvious. No red stripes or feathers. Wrote it up and left a message with the FBO.

 

[Richman]

Be careful. I’ve stayed away from many airplanes simply because of a lack of parts out there.
I tried buying tires for my 172 3 weeks ago, they said sept 17 delivery date. I checked on the 19th where my tires were, new delivery date: December 19th. And even that’s questionable. I immediately got on the phone with my back up vender. “I got 12 left in all of socal”. I scooped them right up. In the past 30 days, I’ve stocked up on about $25k worth of parts inventory simply because it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
I looked at the Apache and passed on it because it’s not being supported very well with parts.

Regular parts are problematic across the board. Specific parts can be impossible. The V35 community has been in freak out mode over mag ruddervator skins for a couple years now. Gear saddles for Cessna SE retractables will set you back a princely sum. 210/177 center spars? Good luck.

We may actually be at a tipping point.

 

[killbilly]

The tire thing has been interesting.

There is a factory somewhere that makes something like 80% of all the tire brands for the GA market that had a fire and production stopped and it has caused massive issues with getting tires. We're a busy flight school and, well, students are hard on tires...we've decided to stockpile as well, and for the same reasons.

@Richman - I've wondered about those ruddervator skins. Is there an STC or something for a non-magnesium replacement? It would be a shame to bin an entire 'Bo just for corrosion on those skins.

 

[Richman]

The tire thing has been interesting.

There is a factory somewhere that makes something like 80% of all the tire brands for the GA market that had a fire and production stopped and it has caused massive issues with getting tires. We're a busy flight school and, well, students are hard on tires...we've decided to stockpile as well, and for the same reasons.

@Richman - I've wondered about those ruddervator skins. Is there an STC or something for a non-magnesium replacement? It would be a shame to bin an entire 'Bo just for corrosion on those skins.

There are STCs for aluminum elevators for straight tail Bonanzas and Barons (trivia, elevators on all Bonanzas and Barons were magnesium up until a few years ago), but not for v-tails. Some are working on it. There are various claims as to why Beech isn’t making them…some say it’s because they can’t get the mag sheet stock in the right size and the EPA has made the post-stamping treatment too expensive (I want to say a chromic acid dip, but not %100 sure on that).

The v-tail setup is apparently much more sensitive to the control surface weight. There are claims that AL can be used and be balanced correctly on the later models, but no one is willing to step up and do a certification. The feds are cagey because of the history of the v-tail. For example, a TN STC gives the F33A a GWI to 3750# (a 350# increase). Apparently when they approached the Feds for the same increase for the V35, they said “nope, don’t even ask”.

Who knows if there will be a solution. You can strip and treat an RV only so many times before you hit the limit for material removal. Beech ran a final run of skins and some guy got ahold of some and was selling them for $30k a pair.

 

[mrivc211]

$150k for a 20,000 hour airframe with a timed out engine. My prediction: there will be a MASSIVE collapse in every sector across our entire economy when this tomfoolery is finished

 

[Fixtur]

The old timers on my field still think a 172 isn’t worth 50k lol. Meanwhile 150’s are being listed for $42k lol

They're not wrong. Tulip bulbs also aren't worth thousands...

 

[Richman]

View attachment 61147

$150k for a 20,000 hour airframe with a timed out engine. My prediction: there will be a MASSIVE collapse in every sector across our entire economy when this tomfoolery is finished

I will grant a 86 172 is rare for a pre-restart Cessna, so it might have some residual value for that, but yea, agreed.

I saw a runout B55, no boots, no radar, going for $300k+. That’s nvts.

 

[mrivc211]

They're not wrong. Tulip bulbs also aren't worth thousands...

The only argument I agree with in favor of prices rising for used planes is every year there’s less of them in the market. These planes from the 1960-1980’s are getting way way up there in airframe time. The alternative is to buy a new one for $500k, or a used refurbished one for $150k. The days of $30k C172’s are long gone.

 

[Fixtur]

It’s almost like there would be a really strong market for a cheap, tough, efficient light aircraft for training and general bugsmashing purposes….

 

[Richman]

It’s almost like there would be a really strong market for a cheap, tough, efficient light aircraft for training and general bugsmashing purposes….

Those companies no longer exist. Beech and Cessna were bought not for their GA offerings, but for their lucrative military contracts. Piper went through the corporate equivalent of AMF Harley Davidson. Mooney is, well Mooney. They were never in that market anyway.

You can’t build a reasonably priced aircraft under FAR Part 23. Just can’t happen. The weight limit on LSAs make them unsuitable as trainers. I don’t know what the answer is, but it’s not that.

 

[mrivc211]

Onl

Those companies no longer exist. Beech and Cessna were bought not for their GA offerings, but for their lucrative military contracts. Piper went through the corporate equivalent of AMF Harley Davidson. Mooney is, well Mooney. They were never in that market anyway.

You can’t build a reasonably priced aircraft under FAR Part 23. Just can’t happen. The weight limit on LSAs make them unsuitable as trainers. I don’t know what the answer is, but it’s not that.

Only option is to buy new and take the 50% tax depreciation if you’re a business. I might be doing that next year on a new C172SP, or I may do a socata tbm 700 if I can find the right one

 

[Fixtur]

Half a million for a slow as hell 70 year old design is absolutely ridiculous. It’s like remanufacturing the ‘49 Studebaker and adding the some led lights, a pep boys sat nav and fuel injection and selling it for $130k.

 

[ahw01]

Half a million for a slow as hell 70 year old design is absolutely ridiculous. It’s like remanufacturing the ‘49 Studebaker and adding the some led lights, a pep boys sat nav and fuel injection and selling it for $130k.

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