SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Certainly, but you also have to be rational about when you put your money into different investments. Just buying at any price because “it always goes up eventually” isn’t rational.
The scenario cases where investing in the Market don’t in a long term run continue to mean gains are the kind of scenarios where whether it’s long or short term nobody is gonna care about a market. That’s because we will all be to busy scrounging for food and water wishing for the lights to come back on.
I’ve got a crazy cousin that’s whole sold to that kind of scenario. He’s spending his money that could be otherwise invested and build wealth over time into a fallout shelter and defensible property with long term fuel and storage.... Me I’m maxing out my TSP and putting all my flight pay in a 401k and our mortgage. Guess we will see who gets to be right in the long run.
I agree with you there are infinite scenarios but let’s not pretend there are not severe differences in probability.
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I’m not a shorting man. But if I was, I’d be shorting now. Instead, I’m just mostly in cash.
The average sale price of a house in Q4 2000 was $212,100. The average price today is $375,700. The only way is up!
And you missed out on a ton of profits!
Trust me, I’m doing okay.
More importantly, I’ll miss the crash. It’s coming.
It's one day in many years.Anyone still optimistic?
Two days now.It's one day in many years.
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression. The market has a long ways to go down or earnings has a long ways to go up to get back into a better PE ratio. Also, watch out for the flattening of the yield curve to show times of recession. I am happy that it is going down because my weekly buys are going to net me more shares. If you are still at the beginning of your savings years these down times should be met with happiness because you are able to buy more shares.Two days now.
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression. The market has a long ways to go down or earnings has a long ways to go up to get back into a better PE ratio. Also, watch out for the flattening of the yield curve to show times of recession. I am happy that it is going down because my weekly buys are going to net me more shares. If you are still at the beginning of your savings years these down times should be met with happiness because you are able to buy more shares.
Not ironic at all.Ironic that you point out two of the biggest declines of the stock market as having similar characteristics of the current market.
No big deal it's two days. The S&P is still up 12.9% for the past year and the Shiller PE ratio of over 31. The last time it was that high was the .com bust and the great depression.
For sure we are at the end of this bull run so I'm not putting much extra into my taxable but I sure am limiting out my 401k and Roth. Those tax advantage accounts are too good to pass up.I've been keeping my mouth shut (mostly), but I'm also a big fan of the Shiller P/E. Stocks are up 30% since the election. That means the market is pricing for earnings to justify that in the future. I still don't buy that happening. I've been 95% in cash for the last 6 weeks. We tested the low on the last correction and went below it today - enough for the quants to say Bye, Felica. I think the smart money used the last month as a chance to sell.
My crystal ball shows risk from trade wars and tariffs, rising interest rates, sketchy political leadership, and expensive everything relative to historical prices. I don't see much to justify great earnings numbers either.
That said, the hard part about being on the sidelines is knowing when to buy. All I know right now is that it is not Monday.
Wait, you hold airline stock? Ha!