Save your pennies (aka what will you do after your job is automated)

wheelsup said:
Getting here a lot faster than you think

https://www.engadget.com/2017/12/13/autonomous-helicopter-completes-marine-resupply-simulation/

http://t.co/DphnC148d9?amp=1

I'm stuffing as much as I can away but I truly wonder what will happen with society as more and more jobs become automated. Companies can't make money if no one is earning it to spend it.

I can see single pilot airliners within five years.
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Here’s the issue. Not a single airliner flying today can be modified and recertified to be single pilot. Delta just announced today the acquisition of 200 airplanes, for delivery starting in 3 years. To meet your 5 year prediction, single pilot part 25 certified transport aircraft must have already been built and undergoing testing today, to be available for delivery in the next 5 years.

Will it happen? Eventually. But most likely not within the next 30 years.
 
Cptnchia said:
Here’s the issue. Not a single airliner flying today can be modified and recertified to be single pilot. Delta just announced today the acquisition of 200 airplanes, for delivery starting in 3 years. To meet your 5 year prediction, single pilot part 25 certified transport aircraft must have already been built and undergoing testing today, to be available for delivery in the next 5 years.

Will it happen? Eventually. But most likely not within the next 30 years.
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You know this how?

They have fairly complicated, old aircraft fitted with aftermarket equipment.

By five years I don't mean in service. We are probably 10 away from that with the first revenue flight.
 
Keep in mind aircraft used to have radio operators. Navigators. Flight engineers. Even mechanics on board. Automation and reliability made all those positions obsolete.
 
wheelsup said:
Getting here a lot faster than you think

https://www.engadget.com/2017/12/13/autonomous-helicopter-completes-marine-resupply-simulation/

http://t.co/DphnC148d9?amp=1

I'm stuffing as much as I can away but I truly wonder what will happen with society as more and more jobs become automated. Companies can't make money if no one is earning it to spend it.

I can see single pilot airliners within five years.
Click to expand...
Not gonna happen. If trains fixed on a track can't get automated, I highly doubt a machine, which can level a building and end up anywhere, would be allowed to operate without someone at the controls.
 
b3181981 said:
Not gonna happen. If trains fixed on a track can't get automated, I highly doubt a machine, which can level a building and end up anywhere, would be allowed to operate without someone at the controls.
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Well trains are automated. I got carted around on one yesterday. It did a marvelous job.

What is stopping them from automating the larger railroads is the union. The railroads own their lines which means only they can have use to them...nothing stopping a new airline from starting up with significantly lower costs and scheduling flexibilities.
 
I don't think that you're wrong, I just think that every industry is facing this hurdle. I think unless things change drastically we're heading in a direction where it doesn't really matter how much you have squirreled away...things are going to get interesting.
 
wheelsup said:
You know this how?

They have fairly complicated, old aircraft fitted with aftermarket equipment.

By five years I don't mean in service. We are probably 10 away from that with the first revenue flight.
Click to expand...

1, the FARs would have to be changed to allow it. 2, the planes would have to be modified and tested. That takes time and money for the manufacturer. They’re not going to retrofit existing airframes. 3, the airlines have to spend time and money to do the same thing after the changes are approved by the regulatory agencies. It took 10 years or so just to force them to add ADS-B.

I watched a 737 being flown as a demonstrator by a single pilot, who was sitting in a windowless room in the middle of the plane. The theory being you could use the area where the cockpit is more economically if you move the pilots. Using synthetic vision, they don’t need to be up front. That was 20 years ago. Not a single thing changed in that time.

Is the tech available today? Sure. Is it economically advantageous for the airlines to pursue it and have the manufacturers make the planes? Nope. It would make the planes too expensive as the development costs get passed on.

Until the airline began counters decide its worth the cost, don’t expect to see that kind of innovation and tech make the leap to 121.
 
wheelsup said:
Well trains are automated. I got carted around on one yesterday. It did a marvelous job.

What is stopping them from automating the larger railroads is the union. The railroads own their lines which means only they can have use to them...nothing stopping a new airline from starting up with significantly lower costs and scheduling flexibilities.
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There needs to be someone accountable for when it crashes. It's the same problem with driverless cars. Who's to blame when an accident happens and the injured or injured persons family wants answers and someone to blame it's not going to be an acceptable answer to say that the programing in the automation is to blame.
 
b3181981 said:
There needs to be someone accountable for when it crashes. It's the same problem with driverless cars. Who's to blame when an accident happens and the injured or injured persons family wants answers and someone to blame it's not going to be an acceptable answer to say that the programing in the automation is to blame.
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The operator and manufacturers will be accountable just like today. I'm shocked you think that will stop this.
 
Cptnchia said:
1, the FARs would have to be changed to allow it. 2, the planes would have to be modified and tested. That takes time and money for the manufacturer. They’re not going to retrofit existing airframes. 3, the airlines have to spend time and money to do the same thing after the changes are approved by the regulatory agencies. It took 10 years or so just to force them to add ADS-B.

I watched a 737 being flown as a demonstrator by a single pilot, who was sitting in a windowless room in the middle of the plane. The theory being you could use the area where the cockpit is more economically if you move the pilots. Using synthetic vision, they don’t need to be up front. That was 20 years ago. Not a single thing changed in that time.

Is the tech available today? Sure. Is it economically advantageous for the airlines to pursue it and have the manufacturers make the planes? Nope. It would make the planes too expensive as the development costs get passed on.

Until the airline began counters decide its worth the cost, don’t expect to see that kind of innovation and tech make the leap to 121.
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You're extremely confident in your assumptions, which is all they are.

Our jobs are but a pen stroke away from being gone, we are here by regulation only not because it generates revenue.

You're comparing today's computing technology to twenty years ago? Really? I just can't even...
 
b3181981 said:
Not gonna happen. If trains fixed on a track can't get automated, I highly doubt a machine, which can level a building and end up anywhere, would be allowed to operate without someone at the controls.
Click to expand...

Man will never fly. Man will never go to the moon. History is full of things that were "not gonna happen."
 
Sounds like there is a bright future for A&Ps and avionics technicians. Creative destruction.
 
wheelsup said:
You know this how?

They have fairly complicated, old aircraft fitted with aftermarket equipment.

By five years I don't mean in service. We are probably 10 away from that with the first revenue flight.
Click to expand...

This kind of sounds like the mad dog captain that started out with "The World is Going to End!" followed by him trying to let him refinance my home and then using the equity in my home to invest in "his companies" handful of investment opportunities, but I could save on my closing costs if I signed on, under him, to become a salesman.

Eventually single pilot aircraft? Sure. Maybe even unmanned, but within five or ten years? Doubtful. The AI isn't there yet, and when it is there will be such a broad shift in the economy, all the things you stuffed money into in anticipation are largely going to be rendered moot.
 
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