N961EA
Well-Known Member
Lmao actually haven't heard this but makes sense!!
Newb Question
- Thread starter N961EA
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Lmao actually haven't heard this but makes sense!!
N961EA
Well-Known Member
Sorry for reviving this thread, but I need some new re-assurances from you guys! So I'm done with all the CFI stuff, I'm now MEI and CFII. And lo and behold, amidst my celebration, I get a nasty party pooping reminder from someone at the FBO that our future as pilots is going to be short-lived and that we are a dying breed and that we will be "replaced by computers soon". I did some research and found that Boeing is testing autonomous airplanes next year! Is this really going to make us dispensable? I mean it makes sense, but I wonder if it will be as cost effective as they claim...thoughts?
Cptnchia
Dissatisfied Customer
How old are you? You may have to deal with it at the end of your career if you're in your 20s, otherwise, don't buy into the hype.
N961EA
Well-Known Member
I'm 39!
poser765
Well-Known Member
I have a two year old daughter. Hypothetically if she decided to be an airline pilot I think she would probably have a good future. Her kids, on the other hand, may live in a time when aircraft are pilotless. MAY...
The person you talked to at the fbo is full of crap. Fully automated no pilot planes are a long way off. A couple of generations at least.
Constellation
Well-Known Member
Congratulations on your CFII/MEI!
I would not worry about that in your lifetime (121 world at least). The regulatory and fleet changes alone would take decades and I can't see a major airline taking on that level of risk any time soon.
Now, if it reaches the point where autonomous flights, with all the variables involved in flying, are proven safer than with humans at the controls, then I'll accept that. I just don't think we're anywhere near that point.
I would not worry about that in your lifetime (121 world at least). The regulatory and fleet changes alone would take decades and I can't see a major airline taking on that level of risk any time soon.
Now, if it reaches the point where autonomous flights, with all the variables involved in flying, are proven safer than with humans at the controls, then I'll accept that. I just don't think we're anywhere near that point.
N961EA
Well-Known Member
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
In the long run, it is probably inevitable that pilots will be replaced with computers eventually, especially when you consider that autonomous self-driving cars and trucks are supposedly just around the corner. The thing is, because of all the regulatory obstacles, and the fact that there are no pilotless or even single-pilot airliners in existence today and it will take at least a few years to develop them, we should be ok for a while. While you started this thread wondering if you are too old for a career in the airlines, your age will be an advantage in this case, since you will probably reach the mandatory retirement age before pilotless or single-pilot airliners really become viable. Also one advantage of your goal of part 121 airlines is that part 121 will likely be one of the last types of operations to use human pilots, even once unmanned aerial systems take over in other sectors of the industry.
Now I will say that the replacement of pilots with computers will not happen in a vacuum. Many other professions and trades are at risk of being automated out of existence, and many of them will likely disappear much sooner than pilots. I don't know much about corporate finance but I could see white collar jobs being at much greater risk of being replaced with automation. I predict that the last jobs will be highly-skilled blue collar trades that are hard to reliably replace with hardware and software and menial, labor-intensive jobs that are still harder to automate than white collar jobs and that pay poorly enough that employers won't save much money by replacing the employees. So even if you were to persevere in your original career, you would not necessarily be immune to technological unemployment. I actually predict that most of society will be affected by technological unemployment before long, because of the decline in consumer demand once enough people's jobs are automated out of existence and find themselves structurally unemployed.
So there will be very bleak times ahead for many of us, but you may not be any more vulnerable to this as a pilot than in corporate finance. One thing to keep in mind though is the airline industry is very cyclical. It is also very much dependent on a large portion of society having the disposable income to afford air travel, which is ultimately a luxury. You are hopefully old enough that you will be able to retire before things get too bad. It is something I worry about often; I am 26 and it is likely that half of today's jobs will be automated out of existence long before I reach retirement age. My goal is to save up as much money as I can while the sun is still shining.
Oh, and congratulations on your CFI and CFII/MEI! It sounds like you are well on your way. I wish you the best of luck with your career in Aviation.
N961EA
Well-Known Member
Damn! I wish I was as bright @26!!
Flyinthrew
Well-Known Member
Yup. Yakob and Soku39. Unfailing rays of sunshine on the topic of the future of human existence.
Soku39
Well-Known Member
Ha, again, not fringe stuff; http://www.npr.org/2017/07/05/535626109/the-end-of-loyalty-and-the-decline-of-good-jobs-in-america
That's all for today though.
drunkenbeagle
Gang Member
Yeah, I wouldn't worry. With how long airplanes fly (most I fly are older than me, and I'm about 40) --- you have plenty of time before automation impacts anything. You'll be retired by then.
Hiboglossi
The Most Depressing Person
It seems like most airliners remain in service for a good 20-40 years, so it may well be a few decades before single-pilot or autonomous airliners are common. Once a pilotless airliner is developed two-pilot airliners could certainly have their avionics updated for single-pilot or pilotless operation, but I can't think of many cases in the past where avionics upgrades have been performed on used aircraft to eliminate crewmembers. The only case I can think of is FedEx upgrading the avionics on their DC-10s to eliminate the flight engineer. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_02/textonly/ps02txt.html
Because of this, I suspect airline pilot jobs will be threatened by declining consumer demand as a result of other jobs being automated out of existence before they are threatened by the technological elimination of pilots. As more and more jobs disappear and as wages for the remaining jobs decrease thanks to the increased competition for them, fewer and fewer people will be able to afford air travel. I could also see modern communication technologies reducing the need for business travel. For that reason, I expect demand for air travel to decline over the next few decades. The thing is, that issue won't be peculiar to the airline industry, as many industries will suffer from the decline in consumer demand. I think the airline industry will be hit harder than most because air travel is a luxury rather than a necessity, however.
