C525 missing over Lake Erie

I'll start another thread if necessary, but I'm curious about something because I've never flown an aircraft better equipped than a KAP150 and Garmin 530...

A jet like that - with hot wings and boots - is a pretty capable airframe, isn't it? Some of you are saying that there was freezing rain but none of the METARs indicated it. I don't know if there was an AIRMET for icing or not.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the go/no-go decision there because I am ignorant of the aircraft capabilities in the context of ADM.

Is the consensus here that the flight should not have been conducted on the basis of the weather alone?
 
killbilly said:
I'll start another thread if necessary, but I'm curious about something because I've never flown an aircraft better equipped than a KAP150 and Garmin 530...

A jet like that - with hot wings and boots - is a pretty capable airframe, isn't it? Some of you are saying that there was freezing rain but none of the METARs indicated it. I don't know if there was an AIRMET for icing or not.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the go/no-go decision there because I am ignorant of the aircraft capabilities in the context of ADM.

Is the consensus here that the flight should not have been conducted on the basis of the weather alone?
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No consensus at all. We have some spotty observations from folks who weren't at the airport, speculation, and a metar history. Anyone who claims the pilot should/shouldn't have gone purely based on that is full of it.

Personally, if you put a gun to my head and said I had to speculate, I'd guess spacial d caused by dark IFR conditions and possibly triggered by an autopilot oops of some kind either on the aircrafts or the pilots part.
 
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Anything other than light freezing rain is usually an automatic no go for any aircraft because of the quick rate and severity of ice build up. No matter how strong a de-ice agent you use, there are no hold over times for moderate or Harvey freezing rain. We just had to deal with light freezing rain in Montreal on Boxing Day, and that was a mess to deal with. Freezing rain is one of those things it's best not to mess with, especially in the Part 91 world.

Not saying this is what happened here however.
 
If you were in freezing rain/iced up badly enough to cause a crash, wouldn't that crash be most likely to happen at rotation or immediately after takeoff, rather than a few minutes later after accelerating and gaining some altitude?
 
killbilly said:
I'll start another thread if necessary, but I'm curious about something because I've never flown an aircraft better equipped than a KAP150 and Garmin 530...

A jet like that - with hot wings and boots - is a pretty capable airframe, isn't it? Some of you are saying that there was freezing rain but none of the METARs indicated it. I don't know if there was an AIRMET for icing or not.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the go/no-go decision there because I am ignorant of the aircraft capabilities in the context of ADM.

Is the consensus here that the flight should not have been conducted on the basis of the weather alone?
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BTW if I didn't mention it on the faceyspace already the KFC150 is IMHO the best GA autopilot I've used. Relatively easy to use, capable, and reliable system.
 
I was in Akron, Ohio this night, and it was snow flurries out around 9pm. Akron's probably 40 miles south of Cleveland Burke Lakefront. I was outside in it until 9pm, but it seemed to persist until late. I stopped paying close attention at around 11pm, but it I'm pretty sure it was icey as heck around this time in Akron, and the next morning the whole area was ice. Assuming I am recalling the correct night I went to the window bc at first I thought it sounded like rain. I would not be surprised at all to know it was icy out especially off the lake in Cleveland. I know I wouldn't want to be flying in a GA plane with those conditions.
 
jayd1038 said:
I was in Akron, Ohio this night, and it was snow flurries out around 9pm. Akron's probably 40 miles south of Cleveland Burke Lakefront. I was outside in it until 9pm, but it seemed to persist until late. I stopped paying close attention at around 11pm, but it I'm pretty sure it was icey as heck around this time in Akron, and the next morning the whole area was ice. Assuming I am recalling the correct night I went to the window bc at first I thought it sounded like rain. I would not be surprised at all to know it was icy out especially off the lake in Cleveland. I know I wouldn't want to be flying in a GA plane with those conditions.
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The CJ4 isn't just some "GA" plane. It has excellent performance and very good anti-ice capability. I flew the CJ3 for many years, which is slightly less capable than the CJ4. I felt the CJ3 to be every bit as good as the CRJ I currently fly for anti-icing, and MUCH better as far as performance/climb capability.

Of course, if it had a contaminated wing on takeoff that's a different story... But I also would have expected that to result in a takeoff accident.
 
The CJ's are wonderful aircraft but certainly not "load & go, don't worry about it" like King Air's can be. They are very CG sensitive. Single pilot empty, you're too far aft. A few pax in the front seats and no weight in the trunk and you're out of CG forward. My first thought here was day trip (no luggage), 6 pax and you're outside the envelope without ballast. Add in some contamination after takeoff and you're in bad shape. I've known people who maybe didn't run W&B as religiously as they should and were surprised when I demonstrated the variances under some typical scenarios.

Complete speculation, but that's my train of thought here.
 
GypsyPilot said:
The CJ4 isn't just some "GA" plane. It has excellent performance and very good anti-ice capability. I flew the CJ3 for many years, which is slightly less capable than the CJ4. I felt the CJ3 to be every bit as good as the CRJ I currently fly for anti-icing, and MUCH better as far as performance/climb capability.

Of course, if it had a contaminated wing on takeoff that's a different story... But I also would have expected that to result in a takeoff accident.
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The point is, I personally wouldn't want to. That's not to say other cannot or shouldn't. Even if there is some doubt about the conditions, you're a 2 hr drive from home. I don't know all the facts and am not pretending to, I just think personally it wasn't ideal weather for a GA aircraft, upper echelon of GA aircraft or not. Especially for a guy that appears to be a little newer in a jet.
 
jayd1038 said:
The point is, I personally wouldn't want to. That's not to say other cannot or shouldn't. Even if there is some doubt about the conditions, you're a 2 hr drive from home. I don't know all the facts and am not pretending to, I just think personally it wasn't ideal weather for a GA aircraft, upper echelon of GA aircraft or not. Especially for a guy that appears to be a little newer in a jet.
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Um...k. In many of those cases I'd much, much rather be in the jet popping out on top of the wx than slogging through it in a car at night.
 
JJ429PA said:
The CJ's are wonderful aircraft but certainly not "load & go, don't worry about it" like King Air's can be. They are very CG sensitive. Single pilot empty, you're too far aft. A few pax in the front seats and no weight in the trunk and you're out of CG forward. My first thought here was day trip (no luggage), 6 pax and you're outside the envelope without ballast. Add in some contamination after takeoff and you're in bad shape. I've known people who maybe didn't run W&B as religiously as they should and were surprised when I demonstrated the variances under some typical scenarios.

Complete speculation, but that's my train of thought here.
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I make NO claims about this accident:

In the early CJs I would agree with the CG sensitivity. While CG is critically important, it is not as sensitive in the CJ1+, 2+,3, 3+, or 4 as it was in earlier CJ, CJ1 & 2 models.

jayd1038 said:
The point is, I personally wouldn't want to. That's not to say other cannot or shouldn't. Even if there is some doubt about the conditions, you're a 2 hr drive from home. I don't know all the facts and am not pretending to, I just think personally it wasn't ideal weather for a GA aircraft, upper echelon of GA aircraft or not. Especially for a guy that appears to be a little newer in a jet.
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When you to state that "it wasn't ideal weather for a GA aircraft...", it's easy to infer that you might think it's ideal for a non-GA aircraft.....are you thinking a 121 aircraft maybe?
I think you might not understand what some GA and the "upper echelon" of GA aircraft can do. IN THIS PARTICULAR case, and based on the limited information in the news articles, I've seen nothing that was outside the capabilities of the CJ4.
 
The SR22 G3X TN I use to fly in Colombia was FIKI, had synthetic vision along with 3-axis AP, would do 210kts+ at FL230 all day and night long. Quite the pocket airliner if you ask me, nothing like the beat-to-hell C172 from back in the days... Did Bogota-Miami many times in it, and if you've been to Colombia, you know it has some of the most challenging weather and topography in...the...world.
GA Airplanes have come a very long way...
 
Roger Roger said:
Um...k. In many of those cases I'd much, much rather be in the jet popping out on top of the wx than slogging through it in a car at night.
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Or a Van, or a Ho! :bounce::fury::stir:

And furthermore, (leaving Carthage alone for a moment), Burke Lakefront makes its own damned Wx. That place can be downright evil in the winter.
 
Crop Duster said:
Or a Van, or a Ho! :bounce::fury::stir:

And furthermore, (leaving Carthage alone for a moment), Burke Lakefront makes its own damned Wx. That place can be downright evil in the winter.
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BKL is my home. You MASTER the cross wind landing there.
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