Brexit
- Thread starter Kingairer
- Start date
Seggy
Well-Known Member
Trade deals are actually negotiated by governments, not business travelers. So you are wrong.
See above. Could there be an increase in travel, sure! But that doesn't mean it will be profitable travel.
Show me the post that I equated this to the Great Depression.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
Or not have a codeshare with a British airline and do the flying yourself.
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Lawman
Well-Known Member
Oh I missed the part where governments are omnipotent beings that perform actions on their own. No people are involved at all right?
You think congressman or high ranking persons in government position fly coach? Seriously if you think for one instance that the sudden opening of needs for renegotiation of everything from business to business agreements to high level government trade agreements it will involve important people who wear suits needing to log a lot of frequent flyer miles to make those things happen. If you think talking to each other's representatives isn't going to by the same token require an increase in business travel you are crazy.
Show us a post where you didn't equate this to be an economic disaster or attempt to respond to and refute statements by any other that it isn't. You haven't got a single post in the other thread trying to do anything but prove this is a terrible thing drawing from your crystal ball of talking points and media headlines. You know what's causing investor instability? Talking heads ignoring what calmer voices keep saying that this is merely a bump in the road not the great economic cataclysm some of the very articles and videos you posted attempt to make it out as.
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Avgirl
Well-Known Member
Not necessarily. Any variance is going to be made up by the amount of travelers going from the U.S. to the U.K. that otherwise wouldn't have traveled, believe me, the consultant side is on fire right now with companies scrambling to figure out what ramifications they might be facing with this change (wasted money, I would say, but whatever floats their boat). Most companies have requirements that they must be in business class on those flights, and so that equals better revenue management opportunities and still higher fares which equate to higher revenues. The fares from the U.K. to the U.S. may be affected a bit, but still not that much. All this means is that the revenue staff at the airlines had a tough job to start with, but it just got a little tougher. I guarantee that more people are going to consider traveling to the U.K. now than ever have because of the pound being low, but that is tremendous opportunity for revenue to be maximized. Everything isn't so cut and dry and that is why there are tons of professionals in forecasting that deal with this each and every day. I look at non-rev flights from time to time and there are usually quite a few empty seats, but I am guessing that there will be a lot more full flights soon.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
Folks are involved, sure.
I know they travel coach. Sat next to my Representative to Congress a few weeks ago, in coach.
Once again, there will be travel, sure, but will it be profitable travel? Reading comprehension is key here.
The burden isn't on me. It is on you.
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
Disagree that the weaker pound will lead to a meaningful increase in travel that would make up the difference. While that may make sense, it's a nominal amount compared to the great devalued currency. This will iron out in the long run, but this isn't a positive for us.
Avgirl
Well-Known Member
Full plane is always a positive when the only change is currency and not fares. It's the most basic principle in revenue management.
Lawman
Well-Known Member
Not a positive =/= the doom and gloom financial situation being predicted or implied by people in this thread or on Facebook feeds around the world. It's hysteria based nonsense.
Even with a strict loss of revenue where we pretend increased travel won't offset or even counter some of that price dip the increased in business travel to the UK in the last two years has more than made up the ground lost by the fall on the pound. People are acting as if a half dozen airlines are about to go bankrupt or that we will see mass layoffs as we continue to slide into some kind of financial abyss.
This will not last, this will not kill any company that has any sort of solvency worth a damn, this will go away faster if people stop waiving their hands insisting the sky is falling.
Oh and Seggy, use of business class by government officials is so prevalent members of congress have tried to pass laws restricting it and in some cases banning it. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/22/government-employees-spent-extra-1m-to-fly-first-class-report.html
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Ecl!pse
Well-Known Member
Not sure I would say "well insulated" in this scenario - the equity value of that 49% has been significantly reduced since the referendum passed (see: IAG dropped ~30% since Friday). And both airlines still battle the same challenges as the rest of the industry - rationalize transatlantic capacity to maintain profits.
It's going to be tough to quantify this for a while, but for the time being, these factors are probably "equal and offsetting". Sure, leisure travel from the US to the UK/Europe may pick up, but by the same token, that trip to Disney for UK/European leisure travelers just got significantly more expensive (flights, hotel, meals, etc). From a business travel perspective, the strengthening dollar just made US exports more expensive (see: Boeing, Caterpillar, Deere, etc.) - which, if this deters demand enough, will hurt corporate profits and ultimately hurt US corporate travel. Several banks are also predicting UK and Europe GDP to drop sharply in the coming year (1-3%), which could hurt all types of UK/European travel.
On top of new demand spooks, there has been an excess in Trans-Atlantic capacity for some time now. Slowing demand + already excessive capacity is what has investors running for the exits.
All that said, the jury is still out on which way this will pan out. The Fed is going to have their hands full in the comings months sifting through this, that's for sure. Raising rates in the near future seems unlikely. To @Lawman's point - the world will continue turning regardless, and business will sort itself out (the "invisible hand" of economics).
Fun fact: just like commodities, commercial aircraft are sold/traded in USD. Theoretically, outside of US airlines, everyone's lease payments (or new aircraft prices) just got more expensive.
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
The dollar goes up when people get scared because it's a safe haven.
If you want to get loopy look at the yen, it's done nothing but skyrocket, despite Abe growing debt:GDP significantly. Defies logic, but the market is driving it.
A higher valued dollar also reduces costs to import products. Ideally you want your currency to be strong as a consumer, but 'the market' doesn't seem to like it.
If you want to get loopy look at the yen, it's done nothing but skyrocket, despite Abe growing debt:GDP significantly. Defies logic, but the market is driving it.
A higher valued dollar also reduces costs to import products. Ideally you want your currency to be strong as a consumer, but 'the market' doesn't seem to like it.
Seggy
Well-Known Member
Lawman
Well-Known Member
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/240999-bill-would-bar-lawmakers-from-flying-first-class
HR 2110 the COACH Act.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr2210
Introduced a year ago by a bipartisan group to bar government employees and congressmen and staff from flying anything but economy on government expense.... Hasn't been passed.
You can sit here and try and post anecdotal evidence of a picture of a guy campaigning as the little guy but we spend millions of extra government dollars a year because government officials upgrade themselves to fly business class using loopholes in the guidance such as "mission necessity."
That doesn't even begin to approach the gross misuse of money for official government of chartered business jets used for personal travel, but accountability at all levels is what should be demanded.
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wheelsup
Well-Known Member
Avgirl
Well-Known Member
I'd love to break open the records of the 89th Airlift Wing and see just what missions their C-20/37 Gulfstreams and C-32/757s have been tasked for and who they'd been hauling.
Lawman
Well-Known Member
Yeah... Meanwhile on a 56 seat charter bus headed from Clarksville KY to Ft Irwin CA with 55 soldiers riding in it who have to keep their kit on their laps due to space, not a single F is given.
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surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Awe...
Army uses busses for large scale movements of members cross country. That's cute.
Wonder if the Army bothered to ask Air Force to charter a C130 to transport those young men and women...hmm...doubt it...must treat soldier as widget.
Longest bus ride I've ever had to endure was a nicely chartered behemoth from San Antonio to Biloxi. Quite comfortable actually even in blues as an E2. But that's the Air Force...and as a non-prior service member completing BMT going to Tech school.
RHIP.
Now it's airline wherever I need to go as an E6 unless I want my own vehicle (as is the case for a trip next week).
BoCHIP (Branch of Choice has its Privileges).
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