Pilot Job Fair Tip #4,128...

hook_dupin said:
This whole thread demonstrates that there is not a pilot shortage.
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It is easy to think that but actually there will be if it's not here already, Sure Delta will say they have XX,000's of apps as will United and American and Southwest but does anyone actually think that of all those apps that these people have only applied to one airline? No, most have applied to at least two, three if not all and will go to the first company that offers them a job therefore artificially inflating those numbers. There are also people, although not as numerous, with multiple CJO's that can obviously only go to work for one company which means that some other company is not going to get a pilot that they were counting on. The generally accepted number for mandatory retirements between 2014 and 2022 is 18,000. If these airlines think they are not going to have a problem they are either in denial, delusional or both.
 
JetDoc said:
It is easy to think that but actually there will be if it's not here already, Sure Delta will say they have XX,000's of apps as will United and American and Southwest but does anyone actually think that of all those apps that these people have only applied to one airline? No, most have applied to at least two, three if not all and will go to the first company that offers them a job therefore artificially inflating those numbers. There are also people, although not as numerous, with multiple CJO's that can obviously only go to work for one company which means that some other company is not going to get a pilot that they were counting on. The generally accepted number for mandatory retirements between 2014 and 2022 is 18,000. If these airlines think they are not going to have a problem they are either in denial, delusional or both.
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I don't buy it. Both BLS and the GAO are balking at a pilot shortage:

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/airline-and-commercial-pilots.htm

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-232

The real kicker for me is the mechanics of the job market. If pilots are in such short supply, why are they paying admission to jobs fairs and even buying "fast passes" to get ahead in lines?

Those 18K pilots retiring between 2014 to 2022... that's roughly 2k per year. If the industry doesn't change, then there needs to be an equal amount of new pilots coming in. The number of new ATPs has actually been 3K per year from 2010-2014 (pg 45 here: http://www.gama.aero/files/GAMA_2014_Databook_LRes - LowRes.pdf). This doesn't even include the crazy numbers we'll see for the 2015 & 2016 years due to the ATP testing changes. Nor does it account for the shrinking of the regional system.

My assessment is that the industry is moving, but that movement doesn't mean shortage. Keep buying those job fair tickets!
 
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hook_dupin said:
I don't buy it. Both BLS and the GAO are balking at a pilot shortage:

http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/airline-and-commercial-pilots.htm

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-232

The real kicker for me is the mechanics of the job market. If pilots are in such short supply, why are they paying admission to jobs fairs and even buying "fast passes" to get ahead in lines?

Those 18K pilots retiring between 2014 to 2022... that's roughly 2k per year. If the industry doesn't change, then there needs to be an equal amount of new pilots coming in. The number of new ATPs has actually been 3K per year from 2010-2014 (pg 45 here: http://www.gama.aero/files/GAMA_2014_Databook_LRes - LowRes.pdf). This doesn't even include the crazy numbers we'll see for the 2015 & 2016 years due to the ATP testing changes. Nor does it account for the shrinking of the regional system.

My assessment is that the industry is moving, but that movement doesn't mean shortage. Keep buying those job fair tickets!
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Those ATP numbers are a bit inflated as current regional FOs began requiring it due to the 1500 hr rule. I would expect a decrease in that number now.


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Screaming_Emu said:
You can be disturbed by it, but it is what it is. No amount of butt hurt is going to change it.

I actually enjoyed my time at OBAP last year because I ran into all kinds of people that I knew.
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I have to admit I've often been quite pessimistic about job fairs, but finally bit the bullet and went to NGPA. I only went Sunday, and things were crazy and I only got to talk to one airline... But I ran into a bunch of people I knew and actually had a fun time talking to them and (most) people in line. There were a couple of wet blankets, but for the most part everybody was positive and enjoyable to talk with... I will definitely plan on going again!
 
I hear there were a couple of pilots that were clearly products of helicopter parents and couldn't hold a conversation to save their lives. I think there should be "notable participant" ribbons so they don't feel bad.
 
So would it be fair to say dressing like this won't get your name on top of the pile?
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Autothrust Blue said:
I rather tire of the constant parade of crap that is rained upon my generation's head. We're not all egocentric, self-centered spoiled brats. (I mean, I am. But that's beside the point.)
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Screaming_Emu said:
"Millennials" or any other generational title is one of those buzzwords that makes me tune out from a conversation.
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I've got a couple thoughts on this but busy at the moment. For now I'd argue there's some truth to both sides (as is usual).
 
Derg said:
The "baby boomers" thought my generation was the end of the world because we all apparently drank coffee, woke up late and listened to Pearl Jam.
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I consider that the secret to my success.

Hey, I grew up in Seattle and went to college in the early 90s, I had no choice.
 
Hacker15e said:
I consider that the secret to my success.

Hey, I grew up in Seattle and went to college in the early 90s, I had no choice.
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After living in the Puget sound area, I'm stuck trying to fire out how a place that was the epicenter of a musical movement I still dedicate half an IPod too has got such a terrible radio selection.
 
Lawman said:
After living in the Puget sound area, I'm stuck trying to fire out how a place that was the epicenter of a musical movement I still dedicate half an IPod too has got such a terrible radio selection.
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Do you have time to talk about our Lord and savior KEXP? (Though I must admit, some of stuff they play, while good, is not suitable for driving, which I'm guessing is where most of us listen to the radio)
 
Lawman said:
After living in the Puget sound area, I'm stuck trying to fire out how a place that was the epicenter of a musical movement I still dedicate half an IPod too has got such a terrible radio selection.
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I grew up on 99.9 KISW "Seattle's Best Rock", 102.5 KZOK, 96.5 KXRX, and 107.7 "The End." An honorable mention to 101.5 "K-Plus" which had Kent and Alan (which was funny stuff in the pre-internet age).
 
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