121 Retirements

Maybe, maybe not. They aren't making any more 717's though I guess some other aircraft may fill the nitch.
Also cost of pilots is a factor. Better pay rates are great, but at some point it may become too expensive to run that 717 on some routes.
Cost/seat/mile is less with a larger airplane, but cost/leg is less on the smaller airplane. Sometimes the smaller one makes sense, but in some cases no airplane is cost effective.
Again, I've been reading about how the RJ was going away since the day it came out. I've seen "a few" airline predictions be wrong, which is why I will go so far as to say the regional industry will change but not predict it will go away. Heck, if you had told me 15 years ago ACA and Comair would be gone but TSA would still be hanging around Id have told you you were nuts.

Well that's exactly why I think this time it's for real. Not a single regional can staff it's flying right now. I have my doubts on whenever raising first year pay is going to be enough to make that problem go away.

In order to motivate people to come to the regionals they are going to have to raise pay across the board and start treating people better. That costs money and eventually it won't make economic sense for mainline carriers to farm the flying out to subcontractors. Throw in the fact that mainline retirements-every regional pilot in the country=a negative number, and that only makes the problem worse.
 
Well that's exactly why I think this time it's for real. Not a single regional can staff it's flying right now. I have my doubts on whenever raising first year pay is going to be enough to make that problem go away.

In order to motivate people to come to the regionals they are going to have to raise pay across the board and start treating people better. That costs money and eventually it won't make economic sense for mainline carriers to farm the flying out to subcontractors. Throw in the fact that mainline retirements-every regional pilot in the country=a negative number, and that only makes the problem worse.

I think what you will see, rather than an elimination of regional flying, will be a consolidation. I don't see any just going out of business as others will want to absorb the pilots- though the fiasco of trying to get our two pilot groups may give some to rethink this route. Some thinner routes will probably go away. Fifty-seat flying will stay around at least as long as oil is below some set point where it is economical. We've already seen a slow-down in their retirements as oil below $50/barrel changes the economics.
 
I think what you will see, rather than an elimination of regional flying, will be a consolidation. I don't see any just going out of business as others will want to absorb the pilots- though the fiasco of trying to get our two pilot groups may give some to rethink this route. Some thinner routes will probably go away. Fifty-seat flying will stay around at least as long as oil is below some set point where it is economical. We've already seen a slow-down in their retirements as oil below $50/barrel changes the economics.
I think you're right. I also think consolidation will also just be one step on the way to extinction. If regionals consolidate, the effectiveness of the whipsaw is reduced due to fewer CPA options available. To me, that just seems to be one inevitable step on the way to increased CPA costs, more in-house mainline flying, and dead regional airlines.
 
JetBlue just announced an ab initio program. Thousands of qualified guys out there and they are gonna spend 4 years and millions of dollars on 24 people who don't know the difference between a landing light and runway light. It just seems to get better and better. FWIW ALPA is tell them to get bent.

JetBlue Pilots,

We are pleased to announce that JetBlue is developing an innovative talent pathway for those seeking to become pilots at JetBlue. In keeping with tradition, we’re calling it Gateway 7. This particular Gateway program will allow an applicant, if successful, to start with no flight time and become a JetBlue pilot after completing a rigorous training program. The first question that may come to mind is, “Why is JetBlue creating another Gateway program when we have thousands of qualified applicants every time we open our application window?”

Like our other Gateway programs, candidates build experience and training at their own expense and are not JetBlue Crewmembers until successfully completing their multi-year
Gateway program. Essentially, Gateway 7 is just our latest addition to JetBlue’s leading suite of recruitment programs for future JetBlue pilots. All other Gateways will continue, including our popular Gateway 2 (Bluedarts), Gateway 6 (University program) and the standard Gateway 1 (off the street). For more information on Gateways – please reference your FOM.

As you are all aware, in the United States, the traditional path to becoming a professional pilot is primarily based on an accumulation of hours approach and mainly focuses on single-pilot, single- or multi-engine operations in small general aviation aircraft. As professionally trained pilots ourselves, we know that it takes more than logging hours to be a successful pilot in today’s modern environment.

Since the cost and time of the traditional civilian pilot career path is becoming increasingly prohibitive for the average aspiring pilot, a new approach is needed. Gateway 7 will take a more competency-based approach and will optimize the training of prospective airline pilots by offering early exposure to multi-crew/multiengine operations, full motion simulator training, crew resource management, and threat and error management. We believe that by offering more ways to meet those diverse interests, strengths and backgrounds, we’ll be able to continue to find the best pilots in the industry long into the future.

Competency-based training programs are in use within the U.S. military and among leading international airlines. For those of you who have not experienced this first-hand, the U.S. military has very successfully used this type of highly structured method to train their pilots for decades. As such, we referenced guidance from the various military and ICAO training programs in the development of the Gateway 7 program.

Although still in the final phases of development, Gateway 7 will also be a highly-structured, high-quality training program. After completing the first several phases of training, the pilot trainee will accumulate 1,500 hours of flight time required for the issuance of an unrestricted ATP, in full compliance with existing FAR’s. Once the pilot candidate successfully completes the Gateway program and is selected to be a JetBlue pilot, s/he will be hired and complete the JetBlue qualification program, which will include a modified and extended version of IOE. Multiple stage checks and end-of-course tests ensure the pilot trainee’s progression according to the Practical Test Standards requirements of the FAA. We believe that our oversight of the entire training continuum and the candidates' early exposure to multi-engine/multi-crew operations will become a leading training option for pilots interested in Part 121 operations at JetBlue.

The Gateway 7 training program will be demanding. Therefore, we need to ensure trainees have a high probability of success. To support this, we are putting a rigorous Gateway 7 application process into place. Candidate screening will be a critical component of this process, just as it is for military pilot candidates before they are selected for flight school. Our goal is to ensure that our Gateway 7 selection assessments, currently in development, will help us choose well-qualified candidates who have the character traits and aptitude that ideally suit them for a career as pilots at JetBlue. The first stage of this process is data accumulation. Our talent department is working with a third-party business partner to help develop the multi-stage, rigorous selection process.

To help us validate the screening assessment we are developing, we are seeking assistance from current JetBlue pilots. Look for a follow up email in the coming days with more details regarding the assessment and how you can play an integral part in shaping this important aspect of the program – the process by which we will select candidates for Gateway 7.

In closing, Gateway 7 will officially launch in the coming weeks and we will announce the selection process and timeline later this year. Based on our training capacity, we are planning to begin with about 24 pilot trainees in the spring 2016 inaugural class. As a result, the program’s first graduating class of First Officers is projected to be ready to join the line in 2020, approximately four years after starting the program.

Stay tuned for more details on Gateway 7.
 

I keep thinking that four years is a shockingly long time to get them where they want them. However, that's probably a heck of a lot safer. I've got students who will finish "flight training" in four months and be put in Airbus and Boeing products shortly thereafter.

Crazy world we live in.

#MPL instructor problems
 
I'm an Army helicopter pilot looking to start flying airplanes for a Part 121 carrier at the beginning of 2019... I see both an amazing opportunity and also a reason to keep my day job. The inevitable is that there's going to be a ton of volatility due to massive seniority list movement and mainline retaking regional routes / regional consolidation / regionals dying off / (insert theory here). The unknown is what sort of chaotic world of commercial airline aviation will exist 3 years from now and if it's worthwhile to make the jump from the military to the private sector...
 
I'm an Army helicopter pilot looking to start flying airplanes for a Part 121 carrier at the beginning of 2019... I see both an amazing opportunity and also a reason to keep my day job. The inevitable is that there's going to be a ton of volatility due to massive seniority list movement and mainline retaking regional routes / regional consolidation / regionals dying off / (insert theory here). The unknown is what sort of chaotic world of commercial airline aviation will exist 3 years from now and if it's worthwhile to make the jump from the military to the private sector...
3 years is an eternity. You can worry about it in 2.9 years.
 
In today's regional world, 3 years is forever. Who'd have guessed three years ago we'd have the change or hiring climate we have now at any level?

A year ago, the 50 seat jet was dead and buried. Now fuel isn't too expensive and Piedmont, CommutAir and others are picking them up. Short-sighted? Shrewd option? Who the Hell knows?!
 
The 50 seaters are going to go away no matter what. It isn't about fuel prices or the ability to staff them. It's about limited gate space and profitability.
 
No one talks about EXPATS coming back to scoop up opportunities back home. Is this a serious concern that would affect numbers?
 
No one talks about EXPATS coming back to scoop up opportunities back home. Is this a serious concern that would affect numbers?
If that happened, the companies employing those expats would have to fill their seats. That means either more people going over there to work, or increased money to enhance retention. Either way, it's still a job that needs filling.
 
Soooo these charts are saying I won't have to stay at a regional for 10 years? Let's cut to the chase.

I guess the only way to find out is by playing the game! It's a gamble and anything can happen in a year or five years or ten; persistence in staying in place is the only guarantee that we will succeed. That, and not getting a DUI/DWI...or having to pay child support like several captains that I fly with have to, haha.
 
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