ATP Supply and Demand - New study

ATN_Pilot said:
Holy crap! I swear, every time I login to this forum, you guys have come up with a new way to convince me that I'm right about marriage and relationships. :)



Actually, I'm more motivated by QOL. I was making plenty of money at SWA. It was the QOL that I found unacceptable. But yes, money and hoes are good motivators, also. :D
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Even though you are part of the golden spoon club do you work harder working now than as a pilot?
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Holy crap! I swear, every time I login to this forum, you guys have come up with a new way to convince me that I'm right about marriage and relationships. :)
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You want to see something, go out to any bar on the first weekend when a US Navy Ship sets sails and see for yourself. Some husbands had fun during port visits while their wife had fun in their absence. Many stories out there of bank accounts being wiped clean or coming back to an empty house.
 
mshunter said:
I don't know what kind of magic land you're talking about, but my mom has been an RN for 20+ years. She does all those things you've talked about, and had to touch bodily fluids. She had to help patients with bed pans, give them sponge baths, gets yelled at by cranky people she is only there to help, etc.
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I was going to say...

My Mom often has to touch bodily fluids as well, and she's a PTA, not even a nurse. Everything I have heard from actual nurses suggests touching bodily fluids is pretty much unavoidable in that profession, and probably any medical profession that involves directly caring for patients. I think it is true that CNAs get stuck with the brunt of that stuff, though, but certainly not all of it.

I have to say it is often amusing to see the inflated concepts some pilots have of other professions.
 
jskibo said:
Interesting set of observations......Allow me to add mine

Let's start with Money isn't everything, then I'll come back to it later.

1984, I just graduated High School, all I wanted to do was fly. I had a bunch of crap jobs (grocery, body shop, automotive machinist apprentice, Elevator finish resurfacing, underground sprinkler installer, pool installer) that paid crap to decent money but all sucked in their own way. I did them to pour everything I could into flying, splitting my time between KDPA and KARR. Inevitably I would always run out of money, then spend a bunch of time making and saving some, only to start three steps back from where I was. Along came marriage, a kid and then divorce. Facing child support payments, I took a job with an Armored car service. Tons of overtime, money was pretty good for then (late 80's) at about $30k a year for a guy with a high school education. But I worked so many hours flying was out of the question, and I stopped with about 30 hours logged.

I needed a way to make pay my obligations, earn enough to live on and have a chance to go to school (hopefully to fly), but having a lot of cash in my pocket (Don't laugh, in 1989 that was decent money) kept me from moving on when I really needed to, call it the bronze handcuffs if you will. Into my third year with Illinois Armored Car we finally had a robbery that involved a guard being killed, a guy I was hired with and went through training with. I got to arrive on scene to transfer the truck contents while he was still lying on the ground. That was the ticket, no job was worth my life in such a way, but what could I do? I made good money, I had bills so I couldn't just up and leave for school, besides I applied and made too much for Pell grants then, more loans? ughhh......
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I suppose it wasn't really all that similar, but the robbery reminded me of something that happened to me shortly after I got my CFI certificate when I was working as a flight instructor part-time. It was an runaway trim accident during takeoff, and thankfully neither my student nor I were injured. But I know several others who have also been in non-injurious aviation accidents, and know people who know others who have died or been injured in aviation accidents even though I don't know anyone that has happened to personally.

I guess my point is that in aviation, particularly in the General Aviation world where the accident rate is so much higher, you can easily risk your life for a job as well. And it's worse when you don't make decent money. My accident was on takeoff for the return from a 1.5 hour cross country, so I nearly died (and at the time, I figured I'd also thrown away my career since I now had an accident on my record), all for $14 per hobbs hour. It seemed that just as Esau exchanged his birthright for a bowl of lentils, I had exchanged my chance of a career in aviation and nearly my very life for $21.00.

I seriously considered leaving flying altogether (largely because the accident was a traumatic experience and in its aftermath I had no desire to set foot on any sort of aircraft again). I eventually did stick with it but this experience made me very picky when it came to looking for jobs in aviation. If I was to risk my life, it had better be for at least livable pay.

ATN_Pilot said:
Agreed, but people need to see the reality in order to make an educated decision. My view is that too many pilots paint far too rosy a picture of what it's like to be a pilot. Sometimes it's because they've been at a major for a while and honestly don't remember how much it sucked to be a 5 year RJ FO on the verge of defaulting on student loans, but sometimes it's just dishonest. My goal is to make sure that people see the other side of it. If they don't, they can't make an educated decision.
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I would agree with this. There are plenty of pilots (and flight school marketing departments) who will tell you about all the good points of being a pilot, but of course it's important to ensure that people hear about the disadvantages as well, and these viewpoints are often harder to find.

I'm not even very far into my career, but since the accident I talked about above, I have been hired at what I consider a pretty good aerial survey job. The pay is better than just about any other job requiring less than 1,000 or so hours (although the QOL is arguably terrible, since I have to be away from home for months at a time. Luckily I don't really mind this, but it wouldn't work for everyone). I have noticed myself falling victim to what you talk about, forgetting how difficult aviation often was before my current job. It can be easy to fall into this trap when things seem to be going well. I also think a lot of pilots probably think the profession is better than it really is just as a way to justify their career decision or allay any concerns or regrets they may have about it.

And for those who have been at a major for a while, besides forgetting what it was like simply to be at the regionals, probably also forget the uncertainty that they would even make it to a major. Certainly not every regional pilot does get hired at a major. And for all the success stories, there are plenty of 10 year (or more) RJ FOs with no upgrade in sight. I used to know a regional FO who had been at Pinnacle/Endeavor for nearly a decade, with no hope of upgrading (which he was very disgruntled about), and was going through a divorce (probably due in part to being gone for work so much). When one has achieved a degree of success, it can be easy to forget that it was never guaranteed or that things could have turned out much worse.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Golden spoon club? I don't know who you're talking about, but it certainly ain't me.

I do work more now, but I wouldn't say I work harder.
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Oh my bad. Someone said it was a family business. And I'm sure you make more than SWA was paying or you wouldn't have left. Sounds golden to me ;)
 
scoobs said:
Oh my bad. Someone said it was a family business. And I'm sure you make more than SWA was paying or you wouldn't have left. Sounds golden to me ;)
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We built that business from the ground up. We were firmly lower middle class when I was growing up.
 
Pay is an interesting subject to me. I hear how low the pay is compared to the military for pilots. But happiness is beholden to the person. I know a smokejumper who makes 40k to 50k a season and would rather do nothing else. I have a college degree and didn't realize how hard it was to make 40k. I just wish I could find something to complement both.
 
Stone Cold said:
The more you're around aviation, the more Negative Nancies you will find.
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I personally know only a few people that fly 121.One guy who flies a bus for AA is home all the time (reserve) has a side business, time for kids and a good salary. Great guy, but more importantly he's take is always: Go for it. Do the ratings. It is worth it. And if you're afraid about getting hired - There's work and there always will be.He's been flying for over 20 years but started the same way-CFI then a Navajo etc, as many of you so it can be done :)
 
I cut and paste this paragraph:

Based on historical trends 1994-2011, even at the low error bound, there will be enough ATP certified pilots to fulfill the demand at the majors and minors for the next ten years. At the baseline forecast, there will be enough ATPs to fill the majors and minors demand until 2028. From 1990-2013, an average of 6009 ATP certificates were issued each year, 10560 commercial certificates issued each year, and 5058 CFI certificates issued each year. Major airline hiring averaged only 2250 pilots/year during the same timeframe. The sheer numbers of active commercial and ATP certificated pilots is tens of thousands more than the pipeline currently requires. The GAO, Audries, and MITRE studies all mention this apparent excess supply as the reason they predict no pilot shortage. This analysis provides further specification than the previous studies on this aspect, and indicates there is an excess supply of pilots, for at least the near term, who would fly professionally if the wages were sufficient.
 
milleR said:
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What I've adopted as the best way to explain it is (in my case, the decision to leave the military and go to the airlines), "the grass isn't any greener, but I'm ready to look at a different lawn for a while."
 
Hacker15e said:
What I've adopted as the best way to explain it is (in my case, the decision to leave the military and go to the airlines), "the grass isn't any greener, but I'm ready to look at a different lawn for a while."
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There is no way in hell I'd go civilian if I were a military pilot. I'd find d myself one of those nice cushy Tanker jobs with a Guard or Reserve unit and be home every night. Of course there is the deployments but back when I was in (as a mechanic) we went like once every 3 or 4 years and that was a fighter wing.
 
Good choice in quotes, cda. Also, thank you for actually quoting the paper which is, you know, the subject of the thread.

IMHO, the rest of us are starting to look a lot like we aren't really interested in the numbers or inconvenient facts of the supposed "pilot shortage", just in spewing our anecdotal opinions and personal feelings.
 
Boris Badenov said:
Good choice in quotes, cda. Also, thank you for actually quoting the paper which is, you know, the subject of the thread.

IMHO, the rest of us are starting to look a lot like we aren't really interested in the numbers or inconvenient facts of the supposed "pilot shortage", just in spewing our anecdotal opinions and personal feelings.
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I feel like a lot of guys have their heads buried in the sand because they are upset that it hasn't effected them yet (they haven't gotten that cushy gig yet, and it's not panning out like they had expected). In every situation, there are winners and losers.
 
mshunter said:
I feel like a lot of guys have their heads buried in the sand because they are upset that it hasn't effected them yet (they haven't gotten that cushy gig yet, and it's not panning out like they had expected). In every situation, there are winners and losers.
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Life and your career isn't a zero sum game. There don't necessarily have to be any losers...
 
Firefighter for six years - which many consider to be a coveted job (over 30k applied for 34 spots when I came on). I thought it was cool. Fighting fire was fun, but the medical side is pretty crappy (pun intended).

Anyways, some guys walked around with their firefighter t-shirts tattooed on and couldn't stop rubbing on the engine. I tried to ignore aviation and felt unfulfilled. I left to pursue flying, which many would call crazy.

You only get one spin! :) For every concern and gripe someone may have about the aviation industry, I could easily counter with concerns and gripes about the firehall - but you got to try it on for yourself!

And so I keep pushing.... 120 hours and two check rides to fly for a living.
 
rockman2343@aol.com said:
There is no way in hell I'd go civilian if I were a military pilot. I'd find d myself one of those nice cushy Tanker jobs with a Guard or Reserve unit and be home every night. Of course there is the deployments but back when I was in (as a mechanic) we went like once every 3 or 4 years and that was a fighter wing.
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That's unfortunately not at all what the pace of deployment is today. I deployed twice last year.

Plus the level of idiocy in the mil is insane right now. Since you are an officer first and a pilot second, it really isn't possible sidestep it all..
 
Hacker15e said:
That's unfortunately not at all what the pace of deployment is today. I deployed twice last year.

Plus the level of idiocy in the mil is insane right now. Since you are an officer first and a pilot second, it really isn't possible sidestep it all..
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Holy cow if that's how it is it's way different. And it's been a while since I was in a unit with a full mission (A-10s in the guard back in 2008). We had so many people in our shop that if you didn't want to deploy, you didn't have too. I used to envy those pilots though, getting to do what they love, right in MI, and go home every night. But deploying twice a year, Id probably think about getting out too then.
 
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