10 Warning Signs of a Market Crash in 2015

Roger Roger said:
Doesn't it sort of concern anyone that if these various dismal predictions are correct, the only reason our economy even sort of got going again was that the fed was lending money basically (or in some instances actually) for free? I mean as far as I can tell there isn't a material asset bubble like the real estate one going, it's more of, well, a currency bubble which seems like it should be a little worrying. But then again all the talking heads who stand to gain from the repeating cycle tell us that's normal so I guess imma get back to the dirt farm like the rube I am...
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Haha... They knew exactly what they were going to cause when the fed began the quantitative easing.
 
chrisreedrules said:
I mean, I definitely had some nice gains this past year, but I'm playing the long game. I don't think the current trajectory is sustainable. In fact I think there will be a hard correction in the coming year or two.
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I have some money I would like to double. I will also try to time the market bottom.

What do you think about buying oil in USO or USL? They are down 45%-50% in the last 6 months. I wonder if it is a good buying opportunity soon.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
I have some money I would like to double. I will also try to time the market bottom.

What do you think about buying oil in USO or USL? They are down 45%-50% in the last 6 months. I wonder if it is a good buying opportunity soon.
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I'm not qualified to really give you any advice on buying that... I don't really know that much about investing in general to be honest. I've dabbled enough to figure out what works for me and what doesn't and I'm a little more fluent than I guess the average person in some of the terms. If you really want unbiased advice I'd go see a fee-based financial advisor and see what they have to say.

I will tell you this about US oil though. Part of the reason for the low gas prices is because OPEC is allowing them to stay this low. OPEC sets the price of oil and they aren't stupid. Most of the OPEC nations have huge energy-production based economies. I think a lot of the reason they have allowed crude prices to plummet so far is because they know they can weather the storm. But many of the up and coming shale and fracking companies here in the US can not. It is their way of cleansing the market of their competition in the long run.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
I have some money I would like to double. I will also try to time the market bottom.

What do you think about buying oil in USO or USL? They are down 45%-50% in the last 6 months. I wonder if it is a good buying opportunity soon.
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You do realize that both of those are nearly impossible to do with any certainty. Well the latter at least. It may take you a couple weeks or a couple decades to double your money.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
I have some money I would like to double. I will also try to time the market bottom.

What do you think about buying oil in USO or USL? They are down 45%-50% in the last 6 months. I wonder if it is a good buying opportunity soon.
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That's probably going to be a difficult thing to do. What is your timeline on that?
 
fly22 said:
Unless you know really know what you are doing stay clear of trading oil.
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I put a limit order in for USL at $20, good until July. I think if oil drops down to $40 a barrel, USL will be about $20. With a commodity so volatile that has tanked so rapidly, I'm sure it will get up to $80 within 18 months and then I will have doubled my money. All it will take is some of the hostile nations to take action due to their starving economy, or the Saudis to relent.

My contingency option is if oil doesn't get that low and my order isn't fulfilled. I will then use that money to time the bottom with Chris Reed and double my money that way. This should also work within 18 months.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
I put a limit order in for USL at $20, good until July. I think if oil drops down to $40 a barrel, USL will be about $20. With a commodity so volatile that has tanked so rapidly, I'm sure it will get up to $80 within 18 months and then I will have doubled my money. All it will take is some of the hostile nations to take action due to their starving economy, or the Saudis to relent.

My contingency option is if oil doesn't get that low and my order isn't fulfilled. I will then use that money to time the bottom with Chris Reed and double my money that way. This should also work within 18 months.
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Forgive me if that is sarcasm but there are some that spend 15-16 hours a day researching and studying the market that can't time a bottom, how do you expect to do it.
 
'Warning signs' of a crash posted on jetcareers.com are about as valuable as used toilet paper. The institutional money is already prepped.

The next crash or correction will be caused by something that none of the retail investors are worrying about, and if the smart money feels over extended or wants to lock in profits, it'll start flowing out.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
I put a limit order in for USL at $20, good until July. I think if oil drops down to $40 a barrel, USL will be about $20. With a commodity so volatile that has tanked so rapidly, I'm sure it will get up to $80 within 18 months and then I will have doubled my money. All it will take is some of the hostile nations to take action due to their starving economy, or the Saudis to relent.

My contingency option is if oil doesn't get that low and my order isn't fulfilled. I will then use that money to time the bottom with Chris Reed and double my money that way. This should also work within 18 months.
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There are some members on this board I can tell are being sarcastic without using a sarcasm tag, and some I can't.


Are you being serious in your post?
 
fly22 said:
There are some members on this board I can tell are being sarcastic without using a sarcasm tag, and some I can't.


Are you being serious in your post?
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First paragraph is a well thought out plan with the wheels in motion. The contingency plan isn't complete and contains a little sarcasm. It will just take some more work to polish up this plan. Hopefully not as much as the 15-16 hours Mike suggests.
 
Jafari RastaMan said:
First paragraph is a well thought out plan with the wheels in motion. The contingency plan isn't complete and contains a little sarcasm. It will just take some more work to polish up this plan. Hopefully not as much as the 15-16 hours Mike suggests.
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The problem with this is when you come up with a concrete plan based on present information, there's a tendency to lock in and get tunnel vision when the information changes in the future. Have an idea where you might want to enter (may be multiple areas), but you must be open to the information the market is showing you right now, not weeks ago when the plan was made.

My question is this: If you get in at $20 on USL and it continues falling like a rock, where are you going to get out? How much of your account will you lose before you hit your "contingency plan"?
 
I guess the big thing this time around is CLO's, aka Collateralized Loan Obligations. Essentially the exact same thing as Mortgage-Backed Securities except they are loans to corporations instead of home mortgage loans.

Ten bucks says the bank that loaned to Great Lakes went back and broke it up and packaged the derivatives.
 
gotWXdagain said:
I guess the big thing this time around is CLO's, aka Collateralized Loan Obligations. Essentially the exact same thing as Mortgage-Backed Securities except they are loans to corporations instead of home mortgage loans.

Ten bucks says the bank that loaned to Great Lakes went back and broke it up and packaged the derivatives.
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Oh goody. That worked out really well last time.
 
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