GAO Report on the pilot shortage...

[dbrault17]

I HAVE A SOLUTION!!!!

Management allows first year First Officers to generate their own revenue if they wish. By putting out a tip jar. Seems to work in other poorly compensated industries. The numbers are crude but this is how it breaks down.....

EMB 170 has 70 passengers. Since I'm the one filling in number of passengers for WB I can say that we fly more full/oversold flights then not so I'm going to go with the 70 pax numbers.

Judging from my experience as a velvet attendant (don't laugh, my best friend who got me the job makes more than I do now. Only difference is I have insurance) I can say about 85-90% of our customers tipped at least a dollar. Some more. Others nothing. So let's go conservative and say 60% of pax will tip at least a dollar. Obviously it would take some time for pax to adjust but I'm optimistic after all the media attention devoted to pilot salaries.

OK so 60% of 70 passengers equal 42 people. Or $42 in the tip bucket. If I could squeeze that out of just three flights a day that comes out to an extra $126 per day!

OK so three legs with 6 hours credit at first year pay around $23 an hour is about $138 flight pay. Gross pay (And I'll point out here that's the individuals "gross" before costs associated with said job like parking, crash pad, student loans etc, are accounted for before the individuals "net" or take home pay).

$138 plus $126 equals......$264. Around a 90% increase in pay. Boom. Shortage solved.

Why not? Starbuck Batistas can do it.

Or allow me to sign up pax with credit card apps. Seems to work at spirit for their newbie FAs. They already do it in the terminals. Why cant i have a stab at it? Is it the hat?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Please list the airlines that have a 35% labor cost.

Please list the airlines have have a 45% fuel cost.

I'll be happy to look these numbers up for you once you furnish the names of the airlines requested.

Joe

Sorry, buddy, but I don't have the time to dig it all up for you. You can certainly do that if you'd like, though, and you'll be embarrassed by what you see.

I'll give you my own airline's numbers, though. Southwest (which includes AirTran) spent 29% of its total expenses on labor for the last fiscal year reported, and 37% of its total expenses on fuel. I don't think anyone is at 45% on fuel costs today, but they were when oil peaked in 2008.

 

[dbrault17]

Southwest (which includes AirTran) spent 29% of its total expenses on labor for the last fiscal year reported, and 37% of its total expenses on fuel. I don't think anyone is at 45% on fuel costs today, but they were when oil peaked in 2008.

Is that 29% of all 44,000 labor? How such of that attributed directly to the 6300 something pilots? Just curious.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Is that 29% of all 44,000 labor? How such of that attributed directly to the 6300 something pilots? Just curious.

That isn't reported publicly, because they're not required to break it down by employee group. And I'm not a SWAPA rep, so I don't have a confidentiality agreement to have access, either. But I did have access to the AirTran data, and I guess it's not so confidential anymore. Under the old contract, we were at 9% of total expenses. On the first year of the new CBA, we jumped up to 11%, and it went up from there each year. Those numbers have changed since then, because AirTran no longer exists as a separate financial entity, but it gives you an idea of what a mostly domestic mainline carrier looks like. A legacy carrier with pilots at higher average longevity and with higher costs because of extensive international operations will see those numbers a few percent higher.

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

Southwest has one of the highest labor costs in the industry because they have not gone through bankruptcy and have a mature workforce.

I just looked up some numbers for you.

Let's start with the fuel costs which are the main issue in this industry. I looked up Southwest's fuel costs from 2002 going forward through 2010. Here is what it looked like:

2002 13.8% of gross revenue

2003 14.0% of gross revenue

2004 15.3% of gross revenue

2005 17.7% of gross revenue

2006 23.5% of gross revenue

2007 27.3% of gross revenue

2008 33.7% of gross revenue

2009 29.4% of gross revenue

2010 29.9% of gross revenue

I don't feel like waking anyone up tonight to get the 2011-2013 fuel numbers but you get the point.

As far as the pilot pay goes. Southwest has the highest in the industry. Here is the breakdown of the pilot pay as % of gross revenue.

2002 8.44% of gross revenue

2003 8.81% of gross revenue

2004 9.29% of gross revenue

2005 9.41% of gross revenue

2006 8.85% of gross revenue

2007 8.99% of gross revenue

2008 8.76% of gross revenue

2009 9.59% of gross revenue

2010 8.84% of gross revenue

Again Southwest has the highest pilot pay in the industry. They pay their pilots well. Other than the BS with AirTran, they have been a good operator. This is the exact opposite of some of the other airlines that do not pay their pilots well.

Joe

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Southwest has one of the highest labor costs in the industry because they have not gone through bankruptcy and have a mature workforce.

While true a couple of years ago, not so today. New contracts at DAL, UAL, ALA, and others have changed the landscape.

Let's start with the fuel costs which are the main issue in this industry. I looked up Southwest's fuel costs from 2002 going forward through 2010. Here is what it looked like:

Yada, yada, yada, bunch of numbers here...

I don't feel like waking anyone up tonight to get the 2011-2013 fuel numbers but you get the point.

Southwest was hedged throughout this timeframe while other carriers weren't. It saved them a hell of a lot of money. While they were paying 30%, others (including AirTran) were paying 40%+.

As far as the pilot pay goes. Southwest has the highest in the industry

You still can't figure out the difference between pay and payroll. Southwest does not have the highest pilot payroll costs per pilot in the industry. Not even close, in fact. That number belonged to AMR by a country mile before they went through the last 1113 filing and got the concessions. Southwest is middle of the pack, actually.

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

Children, children, arguments are sooooooo much more plausible with facts (and pictures)!!!

Thanks for callin' the Heavy Hitter in. Now, where was I?

Ah, yes, pictures!!! Let's use Delta 2013, shall we?

For 2013, "salaries and related costs" was 20.4% of gross revenue. In terms of expenses, "salaries and related costs" represents 22.5% of the total expenses, with jet fuel being 33% this year for Delta. For those keeping track at home, Delta says they have 78,000 full-time equivalent employees. I will leave it up to you to determine how many are pilots.

Now, with tools in hand, you may continue your arguments! Carry on.

I believe there are 11,704 pilots at Delta. That would put pilots at about 15% of the total full time employees.

Now the question is how much of the salaries and related costs are charged to the pilots?

Joe

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Doesn't matter. You were claiming earlier in this thread that all employees put together should be around 10%, because you were claiming that pilots were only 2%. Now several people have schooled you so you're trying to backpedal. It's ok to admit that you were wrong.

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

Doesn't matter. You were claiming earlier in this thread that all employees put together should be around 10%, because you were claiming that pilots were only 2%. Now several people have schooled you so you're trying to backpedal. It's ok to admit that you were wrong.

EXACTLY which post did I say that all employees put together should be around 10%?

Actually I think you are the one being schooled. You are spouting out numbers from the olden days.

Let's look at a few things in this thread that you have posted:

In post 137, you said "Total labor cots of the average airline are about 35%" You also claimed that that fuel is "usually around 35-45%, depending on how the fuel is fluctuating that month"

Thus far, you do not have anything to support those numbers. The reason for that is because no airline could stay in business with those numbers.

In post 140 stormchaser was nice enough to post the current 2013 Delta Consolidated Summary of Operations.

At this point in time (FY2013) , Delta is the first airline to earn over 2.5 billion dollars (adjusted to 10.5 billion) in the history of the world.

Delta's salaries and related costs are 20.4% of gross revenue for ALL EMPLOYEES. That's not 35% as you claimed in post 137. In fact it's a long way from it. Do the pilots make half of that 20.4%? I don't think so. But I would estimate, based on past financial statements that they make around 32% of the 20.4%. That would put the Delta pilots at 6.52% of gross revenue. So if Delta pilots make 6.52% of the gross revenue--what percentage do you think the Endevour or Envoy pilots make? I'll give you a hint. It's less than 6.52%.

Delta's fuel cost is 33% of expenses which is not 45% as you claimed in post 137. However it is closer to your low end statement of 35%. Fuel continues to be the number one problem in this industry.

In looking over the financial statements of the airlines, the fuel costs since 2008 have run 30%-35%. I have not seen one over 35%, but maybe there was a bad fuel buyer at one of the airlines that is not on my list.

No matter what, the place to cut costs is with the fuel. That's where the airlines need to concentrate their efforts and quit having pilots subsidize their multi billion dollar companies.


Joe

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

You can keep trying to backtrack, pull numbers out of your ass, and mix revenue and expenses all you want, but everyone can read your post #134 for themselves and see how out to lunch you are. Claiming that pilot payroll is only 2% is about the craziest thing I've heard since Gary Kelly told me that I'd "won the lottery" with the merger.

Have a good night.

 

[99driver]

This report was published this morning. It's being pushed on a lot of major news networks...that's where I heard it. I did not read the whole thing, just the executive summary...but it seems that the majority of you guys on this forum are correct...there is not a shortage of pilots per-say...but a shortage of pilots willing to work for the wage and benefit package that the regional airlines offer.

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-232

Do you know what I think?
I think there is a shortage of Accountability at the Government Offices. I also think they are a bunch of self-interested idiots who have no clue what they're talking about.
The fact that they're right about this topic is simply a matter of statistics; you run your mouth long enough, and eventually something you say will be right.