National Airlines B747-400 Freighter (BCF) Down in Bagram, Afghanistan

To dog hump on my other comment on this subject, trying to put it back down after takeoff in the remaining runway distance is just not something you do in jets. Even if it is an 11,800' rwy. That is how you die for sure, compared to maybe (or probably in this case) dying by taking it airborne with whatever hand you were dealt.

yeah, but you can also punch out
 
To dog hump on my other comment on this subject, trying to put it back down after takeoff in the remaining runway distance is just not something you do in jets. Even if it is an 11,800' rwy. That is how you die for sure, compared to maybe (or probably in this case) dying by taking it airborne with whatever hand you were dealt.

Ya, almost any jet you are not forcing it back down on the runway in the event something happens. They are designed to get away from the terrain even with emergency situations.
 
yeah, but you can also punch out

Yep. I'd do that before I put it back down on the runway. But even if I couldn't, I'd still rather take my chances airborne, as they are better chances. If I had a dual engine fire when I was rotating, I'd still take it flying.....or any emergency for that matter. You just have too much energy to do what a guy in a smaller/slower aircraft can do. I'm sure you are well aware of this though.
 
Yep. I'd do that before I put it back down on the runway. But even if I couldn't, I'd still rather take my chances airborne, as they are better chances. If I had a dual engine fire when I was rotating, I'd still take it flying.....or any emergency for that matter. You just have too much energy to do what a guy in a smaller/slower aircraft can do. I'm sure you are well aware of this though.
you are preaching to the choir...we are go oriented 99.9% of the time above 80 knots on the takeoff roll
 
I wonder what a load shift feels like as it is happening? Can you feel the cargo move even prior to its ill effects on CG? That's what my question about putting it down and taking your chances were about. If you can feel/hear/sense that you've had a load-shift I would imagine your mind would say "Wow...that could potentially be a quarter of a million pounds (guessing as far as payload)...we'll take our chances with chopping the throttles and staying on/or close to the ground". Again, just guessing at the thought process - and taking into account that it would be damn near impossible in my view that you could sense the shift, make the decision that quickly and then execute it. Probably beating a dead horse - I look at that video and imagine all that weight and the effects and it's about as likely to be able to do something as it would be if a wing fell off.
 
Others have said the same but it's not necessarily true. My Bellanca has full aileron authority in a stall, even when held in a stall. Can't believe it's the only model of aircraft that does that.
Roll authority during a stall is very airplane specific and based on many aerodynamic factors. Most GA airplanes are designed to stall first at the root, which is how a rectangular planform behaves. This preserves some aileron control during a stall. Swept wings, on the other hand, are optimized for high-speed flight but have very unfavorable stall characteristics, tending to stall first at the tips.

Image downloaded from http://www.dauntless-soft.com/PRODUCTS/Freebies/Library/books/FLT/Chapter17/WingPlanform.htm
imagehk0.jpg
 
Brief statement of facts from National:

http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/statement-from-national-air-cargo-205694291.html

  • National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.
  • The cargo contained within the aircraft was properly loaded and secured, and had passed all necessary inspections prior to departing Camp Bastian.
  • The aircraft landed safely and uneventfully in Bagram.
  • No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure.
 
Is there anything else besides a load-shift that could have happened? Trim runaway? Anything to make the airplane behave like that?
 
"The disturbing video seems to show a U.S. cargo plane crash in Afghanistan. But is it authentic?" - CNN

...classy.
 
Is there anything else besides a load-shift that could have happened? Trim runaway? Anything to make the airplane behave like that?


Nothing will be ruled out! everything is subject to a microscope. As a professional pilot with maintenance experience I would like to see all maintenance paperwork/files on this aircraft since the day it was born of course the paperwork on all aircraft at this company will be examined. I hope everything checks out because this particular NTSB board has a very cohesive link to congress in which I have never seen before. The FAA use just ignore them.
 
On a side note, for any of you that work in or pass through Bagram, PM me and I'll give you my roshan. Green Bean is on me!
I get back back in country on th 5th.
 
Brief statement of facts from National:

http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/statement-from-national-air-cargo-205694291.html

  • National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.
  • The cargo contained within the aircraft was properly loaded and secured, and had passed all necessary inspections prior to departing Camp Bastian.
  • The aircraft landed safely and uneventfully in Bagram.
  • No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure.


Well, that's definitely interesting. What seemed to be an almost sure case of cargo load shift may indeed be something else.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Well, that's definitely interesting. What seemed to be an almost sure case of cargo load shift may indeed be something else.

I'd wait for the NTSB to put something out.
 
Just because the company is saying that doesn't meant its truthful.
Yeah, I didn't want to say that, but... it's true. Of COURSE they are going to say that. I can't imagine the press release looking like this:


  • National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.
  • We are pretty sure that the cargo contained within the aircraft was properly loaded and secured, and it probably would have passed all necessary inspections prior to departing Camp Bastian if they had been conducted.
  • The aircraft landed safely and uneventfully in Bagram.
  • No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and we hope that the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure.
 
That said, with the level of catastrophic destruction, I can't imagine how in the world the investigators are going to be able to determine precisely what happened. Then again... I'm not an inspector, and it is truly amazing what those incredibly talented people can determine from the smallest, sometimes microscopic details.
 
You guys realize that the company isn't going to say anything but the above statement, right? A company is never going to come out and say, "Oh yeah, we're pretty sure that the cargo shifted and that our friends were hosed from the moment the rotated." They have to come out and say that everything was done within regulations.
 
Well, that's definitely interesting. What seemed to be an almost sure case of cargo load shift may indeed be something else.

Again, all that's saying is that the load checked good twice before the flight. That's no proof that a load did not break way and subsequently shift and cause the accident.
 
Actually, Train, they don't have to come out and say anything at all specific. The fact that they did is an indication that they're relatively confident of the facts that they've released. Otherwise, they would have remained silent on them.
 
Again, all that's saying is that the load checked good twice before the flight. That's no proof that a load did not break way and subsequently shift and cause the accident.

Not disagreeing. But in light of this, I think it's prudent to not jump to conclusion and just assume that it was a load shift. It's entirely possible that it was something else.
 
The fact that they did is an indication that they're relatively confident of the facts that they've released. Otherwise, they would have remained silent on them.

Right. Because no company has ever lied or intentionally misled the public after a tragedy. I'm not saying that is what happened here, but I always take what a company says in its defense after something like this with a very healthy grain of salt.

And it absolutely is a possibility it could have been something other than a load shift. Someone else mentioned trim runaway, another mentioned wind shear or a burst of some sort. Some folks here call all of our ideas speculation, and that may be the case, but I view it as education. It is an interesting discussion, especially in such a dramatic incident like this, to explore the different things that could have caused this to happen. That opens up the safety mind a bit, and just might heighten awareness of certain dangers that some of us might not give a lot of credence to.
 
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