Another pilot shortage prediction.

[BravoHotel]

http://www.eraualumni.org/s/867/soc...=2981&ecid=2981&crid=0&calpgid=61&calcid=1938

Airlines, Embry-Riddle Examine Projected Pilot Shortage

Representatives of 14 major U.S. airlines and regional carriers recently joined Embry-Riddle staff and faculty for a one-day Pilot Supply Summit at the Daytona Beach Campus to address a projected professional pilot shortage facing the aviation industry.

Key aviation leaders from United, JetBlue, American and other airlines gathered on Nov. 8 with Embry-Riddle representatives to discuss and develop approaches to deal with the impending shortage of qualified pilots. The dialogue aimed to help quantify the issue, identify the primary causes and define Embry-Riddle’s role in supporting a solution.

“The need for qualified pilots in sufficient numbers has never been greater in this country,” said the summit’s moderator, Cape Air President and Chief Operating Officer Dave Bushy. “Under the leadership of Embry-Riddle, we all have the opportunity to come up with ways to energize young people interested in aviation and to provide them structured pathways toward their goals."

Recent reports, including one by Boeing, forecast nearly 460,000 pilots and more than 600,000 aircraft maintenance technicians will be needed globally during the next 20 years. U.S. industry experts say the expected increase in pilot retirements and next year’s stricter pilot qualification standards could significantly impact domestic carriers.

“The new rules regarding first officer qualifications make it imperative that Embry-Riddle, as the leader in professional pilot education, join the leaders of the airline industry in finding joint solutions to the pilot supply problem,” said Tim Brady, dean of
Embry-Riddle’s College of Aviation at the Daytona Beach Campus. “It is not a future problem; it is upon us now.”

Last month, a meeting of airline representatives also took place at the Embry-Riddle Prescott Campus in Arizona. Participants examined how the shortage could affect regional airlines, how airline closures impact supply, and the salaries of incoming pilots. Discussion points from that meeting were incorporated into the Nov. 8 summit in Daytona Beach, which was not open to the public or media.

 

[chrisreedrules]

I'm still on the fence about the whole "shortage". Part of me thinks that the regionals will be in desperate need of pilots but part of that is because they pay so poorly. Now that I've been flying professionally for a little while, I feel like I am worth way more as a pilot than 20,000 a year. If the industry was still hiring 250 hour wonders into the right seat of regional commuters then I think that would be a fair salary, but with the ATP mins I would need to go work for an airline, it would take some more money to get me to go for it. I could make about 26,000 a year flying a little 172 around for Traffic Watch and about 30,000+ flying aerial survey in a 210. And probably smewhere inbwetween as a CFI. Why would I go fly for a regional for so much less? I could make more than that if I just flew freight or found a 135 charter position with those kind of hours for more money. There wouldn't be a pilot shortage if pilots at regionals were paid what they are worth. Of course none of this means anything if there is another major terrorist attack, gas prices go through the roof, or if turmoil in the middle east boils over into open conflict. Then none of us will have a job and there will simply be fewer regional airlines and far fewer routes to fly.

As for the majors/legacies... They will never have a pilot shortage. It will be just as difficult to get hired by them as it has always been.

 

[jtrain609]

I'm still on the fence about the whole "shortage". Part of me thinks that the regionals will be in desperate need of pilots but part of that is because they pay so poorly. Now that I've been flying professionally for a little while, I feel like I am worth way more as a pilot than 20,000 a year. If the industry was still hiring 250 hour wonders into the right seat of regional commuters then I think that would be a fair salary, but with the ATP mins I would need to go work for an airline, it would take some more money to get me to go for it. I could make about 26,000 a year flying a little 172 around for Traffic Watch and about 30,000+ flying aerial survey in a 210. And probably smewhere inbwetween as a CFI. Why would I go fly for a regional for so much less? I could make more than that if I just flew freight or found a 135 charter position with those kind of hours for more money. There wouldn't be a pilot shortage if pilots at regionals were paid what they are worth. Of course none of this means anything if there is another major terrorist attack, gas prices go through the roof, or if turmoil in the middle east boils over into open conflict. Then none of us will have a job and there will simply be fewer regional airlines and far fewer routes to fly.

As for the majors/legacies... They will never have a pilot shortage. It will be just as difficult to get hired by them as it has always been.

I used to think like you. I went from instructing, to a freight company, to a regional.

On second year pay, with a line, you can clear $50,000 a year at my regional. You've got to work some overtime, but the money is there.

First year pay at Continental is like $30,000 and you have no health insurance for 6 months, but it's still a better move than staying at a regional. You have to look at long term goals, not first year pay.

 

[Inverted25]

You are only looking at first year pay. Regional pay my be bad at first but it will go up and surpass 135 pay and it makes you more marketable to the majors then 135.

 

[chrisreedrules]

Yes, but there is upward movement in other types of operations too. Not saying I'd want to make a career out of Traffic Watch or survey or CFIng for that matter... But at a couple of the 135 charter company I am familiar with, starting pay is 35,000 with second year going up to 45,000 and your home most nights. Captains at these companies end up making over 100,000 after about 5 years. Thats not too shabby either with a much better QOL. And those kinds of operations are out there. I think regionals need to start paying more and then they won't have an issue finding pilots to sit in the cockpit. Just my .02 (and it is just that... .02 because I've only been at this a couple of years) but that would fix a lot of the problems they are having. And I understand it isn't that simple from a business perspective for them to just offer more pay, but then again maybe the entire regional airline business model is simply broke if that is the case.

 

[dasleben]

I'm still on the fence about the whole "shortage". Part of me thinks that the regionals will be in desperate need of pilots but part of that is because they pay so poorly. Now that I've been flying professionally for a little while, I feel like I am worth way more as a pilot than 20,000 a year. If the industry was still hiring 250 hour wonders into the right seat of regional commuters then I think that would be a fair salary, but with the ATP mins I would need to go work for an airline, it would take some more money to get me to go for it. I could make about 26,000 a year flying a little 172 around for Traffic Watch and about 30,000+ flying aerial survey in a 210. And probably smewhere inbwetween as a CFI. Why would I go fly for a regional for so much less? I could make more than that if I just flew freight or found a 135 charter position with those kind of hours for more money. There wouldn't be a pilot shortage if pilots at regionals were paid what they are worth. Of course none of this means anything if there is another major terrorist attack, gas prices go through the roof, or if turmoil in the middle east boils over into open conflict. Then none of us will have a job and there will simply be fewer regional airlines and far fewer routes to fly.

As for the majors/legacies... They will never have a pilot shortage. It will be just as difficult to get hired by them as it has always been.

The problem with staying at a $30,000/year C210 job is that you'll have a tough time progressing past $30,000/year C210 jobs. Regionals aren't great, but the experience gained leads to bigger and better things.

 

[7700]

stop blaming low pilot pay on the regionals, it's their contracts with mainline carriers that dictate pilot compensation. I'm sorry, but being "home" every night isn't all it's cracked up to be, especially when it involves leaving at 6am and walking in the door at 8pm. Please don't humor anyone with an 8-hour duty day. Some people would much rather go out for 3-4 days and then have 2-3 consecutive days off. QOL is what the individual makes of it, im sick of hearing people say "QOL is better" at one place versus another, QOL is subjective.

 

[Inverted25]

Yes, but there is upward movement in other types of operations too. Not saying I'd want to make a career out of Traffic Watch or survey or CFIng for that matter... But at a couple of the 135 charter company I am familiar with, starting pay is 35,000 with second year going up to 45,000 and your home most nights. Captains at these companies end up making over 100,000 after about 5 years. Thats not too shabby either with a much better QOL. And those kinds of operations are out there. I think regionals need to start paying more and then they won't have an issue finding pilots to sit in the cockpit. Just my .02 (and it is just that... .02 because I've only been at this a couple of years) but that would fix a lot of the problems they are having. And I understand it isn't that simple from a business perspective for them to just offer more pay, but then again maybe the entire regional airline business model is simply broke if that is the case.

I want to know what 135 charter operators are home every night.

 

[chrisreedrules]

stop blaming low pilot pay on the regionals, it's their contracts with mainline carriers that dictate pilot compensation. I'm sorry, but being "home" every night isn't all it's cracked up to be, especially when it involves leaving at 6am and walking in the door at 8pm. Please don't humor anyone with an 8-hour duty day. Some people would much rather go out for 3-4 days and then have 2-3 consecutive days off. QOL is what the individual makes of it, im sick of hearing people say "QOL is better" at one place versus another, QOL is subjective.

I'm not blaming the regionals for low pay... I already stated that I understand it is more complex than that. And you are right, QOL is subjective. To me, sleeping in my own bed most nights is great QOL. Everyone has differing views of this.

 

[A-300F4-622R]

I want to know what 135 charter operators are home every night.

My old 135 was 4 on, 3 off. Home every day unless you broke down on the road.

 

[chrisreedrules]

The problem with staying at a $30,000/year C210 job is that you'll have a tough time progressing past $30,000/year C210 jobs. Regionals aren't great, but the experience gained leads to bigger and better things.

And I realize this... But my point was that for the pay being offered to first and second year regional FOs, there are still better options out there. And maybe its just me, but there seems to be a disconnect between making more pay as a low-time cessna driver than an RJ FO with people's lives on the line. For the amount of time/experience one has to build just to be eligible to work for a regional carrier now you could just as easily go work for other operations for better pay and still have good upward movement and career outlook. I'm not arguing against regional airlines here, and I know they are the best way to get to a legacy/major airline (short of having a dad that works for one), but something is going to have to change if they want to attract pilots.

 

[chrisreedrules]

I want to know what 135 charter operators are home every night.

There are a lot of them.

 

[dasleben]

And I realize this... But my point was that for the pay being offered to first and second year regional FOs, there are still better options out there. And maybe its just me, but there seems to be a disconnect between making more pay as a low-time cessna driver than an RJ FO with people's lives on the line. For the amount of time/experience one has to build just to be eligible to work for a regional carrier now you could just as easily go work for other operations for better pay and still have good upward movement and career outlook. I'm not arguing against regional airlines here, and I know they are the best way to get to a legacy/major airline (short of having a dad that works for one), but something is going to have to change if they want to attract pilots.

No doubt, though regionals are a decent way to build a good deal of turbine experience quickly. Charter jobs don't always do that; I'm a little over 2 years into one, and I've logged about 700 hours.

 

[7700]

there seems to be a disconnect between making more pay as a low-time cessna driver than an RJ FO with people's lives on the line.

You don't have anyone's lives on the line as an RJ FO, the CA has the lives on the line

 

[dasleben]

You don't have anyone's lives on the line as an RJ FO, the CA has the lives on the line

I disagree with that fully.

 

[7700]

I disagree with that fully.

So when you put a plane into the fence, who is ultimately held responsible?

 

[dasleben]

So when you put a plane into the fence, who is ultimately held responsible?

The CA gets the brunt, but the FO doesn't get off scott-free. It's a team sport; the CA is in charge, but it takes all players on the team to win the game.

 

[jtrain609]

There are a lot of them.

And be sure to inform us which one of these charter companies you've worked for.

Because while I might not be in the charter sector of the industry, I don't have one friend who tells me how amazing their charter gig is.

 

[jtrain609]

So when you put a plane into the fence, who is ultimately held responsible?

Don't be mistaken, they hang pilots in pairs.

 

[cmhumphr]

You don't have anyone's lives on the line as an RJ FO, the CA has the lives on the line

You must not be flying 121 if you feel this way. The airline environment is a multi crew operation, therefore the First Officer and Captain both will make collective decisions together. CRM is becoming a hot topic lately. When I go to work I am not thinking the Captain has all the stress and weight on his shoulders.