American has tried to cut their way to profitability. Didn't work for them, seldom has in any industry.
US Airways is picking up steam as a suitor by reaching if-we-merge deal memos with AMR's three biggest unions, long very pissed off with AMR's managers, as each successive suit screws up, one after another after another.
But some US promises are contradictory. Half the number of lay-offs mentioned by AMR Pres Horton, right-sizing, growth, pay promises, etc. Hard to have it all and be profitable.
With tweaking, the route structures can be made to fit. Eagle remains a question, although US Airways still owns Piedmont and PSA Regionals, as well as contracting w/ 5 other independent Regionals.
But they've elbowed their way to the front of the line, and the unions have seats at the bankruptcy table.
My crystal ball: It can work if:
* US Airways' unions get on board. They're still working on unity from the US Air - America West merger. Hmmmm.
* AMR spins off Eagle. Too much cost, smaller A/C and seniority baggage. Or US Airways won't accept Eagle as part of the deal.
* US Airways gets someone really smart to overhaul the combined route structure, dumps losing routes and provides good long-haul and feed to better International service.
* Ditto the public perception of American. Calling it 'new' won't be enough. Needs really first-rate customer service. Mebbe tail animals from Mt. Rushmore? No Doug the Dung Beetle.
* They create a new Legacy model, stealing ideas from United, Delta and Southwest without becoming a clone of any.
* Find a way to make Scope work in their new model. No one has yet.
It'll all be more fun to watch than to live through on the inside. Good luck to all!
