TUCKnTRUCK
That guy
I'd be waiting for a may class too... Should know the status of the q's etc by then.
Lates letter from the CEO of PNCL
- Thread starter sherpa
- Start date
BE19Pilot
Flying a Box
I am in the training dept. and have not heard of any increases (or decreases) in student throughput. At a certain point, I think some kind of decision will be made on what the company's business strategy will be over the next 5 years. We have options for 30 more Q-400s on the books, and have a contract with Delta on 120+ CRJ-200s up for amendment/rebid. These are the two major items I see on the horizon that will directly impact on whether PNCL Corp. remains economically viable or it fails. Perhaps we will know more by summer, at that time we will have passed the April 2nd deadline with UAL and at the end of May we will come to the end of credit relief on payments on the Qs/900s purchased by PNCL Corp.
I have not read the President's proposal for the 2013 budget to see if it contains any language regarding EAS funding, but I don't think that is going to continue or at least at the present spending levels. In any case, I don't see SAAB 340 flying continuing past Jan. 2014 if not sooner. Some communities that have had airline service for decades may find themselves either without it or curtailed.
Geopolitics, Price of oil, etc...all the items that we don't have firm answers for will make the decisions made by PNCL mgt. critical and erring to either conservative or aggressive business tactics both place the company in peril...Interesting times we live in.
I have not read the President's proposal for the 2013 budget to see if it contains any language regarding EAS funding, but I don't think that is going to continue or at least at the present spending levels. In any case, I don't see SAAB 340 flying continuing past Jan. 2014 if not sooner. Some communities that have had airline service for decades may find themselves either without it or curtailed.
Geopolitics, Price of oil, etc...all the items that we don't have firm answers for will make the decisions made by PNCL mgt. critical and erring to either conservative or aggressive business tactics both place the company in peril...Interesting times we live in.
Cruise
Well-Known Member
The question is, as always, how deep the mainline companies will have to dig into the talent pool to fulfill their hiring needs.
They've obviously dug fairly far in the past, what with guys like Doug getting hired
Oooh, BURN!
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
For every reason people give for a pilot shortage looming on the horizon, there's reason it won't happen. Someone says the pilots from the regionals will move on to the majors creating a shortage. With oil climbing again, the majors may park some of their RJs in favor of a 737 running once a day instead of an RJ running three times a day to DSM or some of the smaller markets. Look at Comair as an example. Delta is reducing their regional feed by quite a bit. If the regional feed was staying the same, you might have an argument for a shortage. It's shrinking, though. If 9E goes into bankruptcy and Delta has the chance to, they'll park more 50 seaters. For every airplane parked, on average, you can assume 6 pilot jobs gone. That's at Pinnacle's low ball staffing of 3 crews per airplane. At places that are properly staffed, it would be 10 pilot jobs for each aircraft. So, let's stick with Comair as an example. According to APC, they have about 77 airframes flying now which are being reduced to 44. That's a loss of 33 planes, or (at their staffing) about 330 jobs. To put that in perspective, that's not much fewer than the furloughs announced for AMR in the bankruptcy. So, you're looking at a loss of 730 jobs just between Comair's reduction and AMR's furloughs. Toss the Eagle ones recently announced on there, and you're around 780 jobs lost. Not maintained. Not grown. Lost. Now, almost every one of those guys would qualify for an FO job at a major. So, there's no job growth at all for the regionals since those guys are either a) going to back fill some of the major jobs vacated by retirements or b) fill jobs at the regional level left by guys moving on. This is, of course, assuming there's justice in the world.
Now, some say there will be a pilot shortage because the majors have airplanes on order. Most of those are to replace older airframes, so you're looking at null growth there. Even jetBlue is rumored to be replacing some of the their older airplanes with the new, more efficient A320NEOs. This is all due to the cost of oil. If it keeps creeping up or stay high, it will stagnate growth at the major level, and likely continue the reverse trend at the regional level.
I've been hearing the pilot shortage is just around the corner for well over 10 years. If any of what I've heard were true, I'd be half way up the FO list at a major by now. AMR bankruptcy, Delta's not hiring and might not for a while, despite retirements. Even then, there will be flow throughs from Compass and 9E to fill some of those spots for a while. 9E, if we can't get our act together, will file bankruptcy, shrink and won't hire for a while. If CAL's scope holds out, that will put a hurt on Skywest, GoJet, Republic and Mesa. You'll see larger airplanes on those -700 routes with less frequency. The route structure will shift, but we'll see little (if any) growth with a shrinkage at the regional level. ASA/XJT look like they'll be okay. Same goes with PSA and the US Airways side of Mesa.
For those that buy into the "there's a shortage around the corner." Go ahead. It's been around for well over a decade, and the only people that have made out are the marketing people at the academies selling the snake oil.
Now, some say there will be a pilot shortage because the majors have airplanes on order. Most of those are to replace older airframes, so you're looking at null growth there. Even jetBlue is rumored to be replacing some of the their older airplanes with the new, more efficient A320NEOs. This is all due to the cost of oil. If it keeps creeping up or stay high, it will stagnate growth at the major level, and likely continue the reverse trend at the regional level.
I've been hearing the pilot shortage is just around the corner for well over 10 years. If any of what I've heard were true, I'd be half way up the FO list at a major by now. AMR bankruptcy, Delta's not hiring and might not for a while, despite retirements. Even then, there will be flow throughs from Compass and 9E to fill some of those spots for a while. 9E, if we can't get our act together, will file bankruptcy, shrink and won't hire for a while. If CAL's scope holds out, that will put a hurt on Skywest, GoJet, Republic and Mesa. You'll see larger airplanes on those -700 routes with less frequency. The route structure will shift, but we'll see little (if any) growth with a shrinkage at the regional level. ASA/XJT look like they'll be okay. Same goes with PSA and the US Airways side of Mesa.
For those that buy into the "there's a shortage around the corner." Go ahead. It's been around for well over a decade, and the only people that have made out are the marketing people at the academies selling the snake oil.
The Juice
Well-Known Member
Sometimes maintaining the "status quo" is a victory in itself, especially in this industry
Indeed.
Like "Yay! We're ordering 100 737s! (but we're replacing higher-paying and larger 767's and 757's on a, at best, 1:1 ratio)"
