The infamous "pilot shortage" again...

However, 15 years from now the industry will not resemble how it is today.

Which is why I always caution people about getting too comfortable, too early, too low on the food chain and keeping your options open.

How many WestAir guys, without degrees, thought they would retire off the BAe-146 and bought houses in Fresno? You guys do remember WestAir right? :)
 
Ultimately, it would be best to do all flying 'in house' (insourcing), but corporate leadership is still in love with cross-bidding and outsourcing so it's going to take a golden cow and a burning bush in order for them to see the light.

"YAY! We can sell tickets on Air France to go from Dallas to Paris! Hoo hooo!"

But guess what? Now Air France is on strike, YOUR customers blame you and you take it in the PR shorts.
 
Could Majors outsource further to foreign carriers? I remember hearing United wanting Aer Lingus to take over some of its international routes, but I'm not sure what happened with that.
 
Well, it's a multi-pronged fight.

The two most notable are cabotage laws and contractual protections.

We've got to keep the cabotage laws tight because, without them, suddenly not only can Air Lingus fly DUB to IAD for United. Now they can fly IAD to DEN and UAL could say "Ooh, yeah, it's cheaper than flying our own metal so let's just call that a United flight and let Air Lingus fly the route for us" -- loss of jobs.

Next, I think we've really got to get out fecal matter together when it comes to allowing more and more international codeshare. For example, it was sold to my union as "it'll be great! we make money, YOU get a raise! hoo hoo!" and a lot of us were (not I) were psychologically strong-armed into supporting it ("It makes sense! YOU just don't get it...) and it's become the mainline carrier dropping routes left and right and the codeshare carriers doing the flying. Like we're going to lose Nice, FR. Well, AF has a 380 they need to fill in a soft market, and they can do NCE and places like LYS out of CDG and keep those 777-300's, A-380's and 747-400's packed to the gills. "We" actually got JFK-CDG back on a 767, but for a couple of years we lost that leg entirely.

I'm rambling.
 
Doug Taylor said:
How many WestAir guys, without degrees, thought they would retire off the BAe-146 and bought houses in Fresno? You guys do remember WestAir right? :)
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Which is why I always tell guys that no matter how comfortable you are at your regional, it's best to go a major for the job security. I think the majors are now "too big to fail," and the government would prop any of them up to prevent a Chapter 7.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
I think the majors are now "too big to fail," and the government would prop any of them up to prevent a Chapter 7.
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Now? They've been for some time. And they've been bailed out already. That said, I agree that any seat at any major would be preferable to any seat at any regional, at least from a job security angle.
 
Even then, say if UAL+CAL floated like a lead balloon and went chapter seven, there are going to be a lot of regionals that follow them into the murky abyss.

There were a few people at the regionals that were shrugging off Delta's trip through bankruptcy. If they didn't make it out of BK court, it would have left a swath of destruction much larger than a lot of people were willing to believe.

Stay a little hungry, move up the food chain. Horse. Water. Why don't they drink.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Well, it's a multi-pronged fight.

The two most notable are cabotage laws and contractual protections.

We've got to keep the cabotage laws tight because, without them, suddenly not only can Air Lingus fly DUB to IAD for United. Now they can fly IAD to DEN and UAL could say "Ooh, yeah, it's cheaper than flying our own metal so let's just call that a United flight and let Air Lingus fly the route for us" -- loss of jobs.

Next, I think we've really got to get out fecal matter together when it comes to allowing more and more international codeshare. For example, it was sold to my union as "it'll be great! we make money, YOU get a raise! hoo hoo!" and a lot of us were (not I) were psychologically strong-armed into supporting it ("It makes sense! YOU just don't get it...) and it's become the mainline carrier dropping routes left and right and the codeshare carriers doing the flying. Like we're going to lose Nice, FR. Well, AF has a 380 they need to fill in a soft market, and they can do NCE and places like LYS out of CDG and keep those 777-300's, A-380's and 747-400's packed to the gills. "We" actually got JFK-CDG back on a 767, but for a couple of years we lost that leg entirely.

I'm rambling.
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TEACH US JEDI MASTER! lol I agree with everything you have said today.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Really? I made that much at a crappy regional 5 years ago, and I wasn't even someone who worked that hard. I think you should check your facts. Most regionals top out over six figures, and you can make $70k-$90k as a mid-seniority captain, unless you're really, really lazy.
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It's all based off of conversation I have here, and the posted pay scales on other websites. So, if I am wrong, many many people are spewing loads of crap about regionals. I just landed at John Wayne, I'll look up the pay scales when I have some time. But IIRC, when I last looked at the pay scales on the other forum, it was just barley into six figures after 10'ish or so years as a captain. Figuring in working as an FO, then the upgrade, thats about 10-12 years before decent wages come someones way.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Well, it's a multi-pronged fight.

The two most notable are cabotage laws and contractual protections.

We've got to keep the cabotage laws tight because, without them, suddenly not only can Air Lingus fly DUB to IAD for United. Now they can fly IAD to DEN and UAL could say "Ooh, yeah, it's cheaper than flying our own metal so let's just call that a United flight and let Air Lingus fly the route for us" -- loss of jobs.

Next, I think we've really got to get out fecal matter together when it comes to allowing more and more international codeshare. For example, it was sold to my union as "it'll be great! we make money, YOU get a raise! hoo hoo!" and a lot of us were (not I) were psychologically strong-armed into supporting it ("It makes sense! YOU just don't get it...) and it's become the mainline carrier dropping routes left and right and the codeshare carriers doing the flying. Like we're going to lose Nice, FR. Well, AF has a 380 they need to fill in a soft market, and they can do NCE and places like LYS out of CDG and keep those 777-300's, A-380's and 747-400's packed to the gills. "We" actually got JFK-CDG back on a 767, but for a couple of years we lost that leg entirely.

I'm rambling.
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Not really a ramble. Isn't the short-sided thinking of the pilot group what gave away all the flying to the regionals in the first place?
 
mshunter said:
I just landed at John Wayne, I'll look up the pay scales when I have some time. But IIRC, when I last looked at the pay scales on the other forum, it was just barley into six figures after 10'ish or so years as a captain.
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You can't just look at pay scales. That doesn't paint a true picture at all. If you looked at my pay rate, you'd think I only made about $80k. But that's not even close to what I really make. The average AirTran pilot makes about 1150 hours of credit each year, thanks to the work rules and all of the soft pay that's available. You won't see that by looking at just a pay scale. The same is true at many regionals. My pay rate at Pinnacle when I left was only about $65/hr, but I made just under $80k on that.

Figuring in working as an FO, then the upgrade, thats about 10-12 years before decent wages come someones way.
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There aren't too many regionals with 10-12 year upgrades. Probably about 4-6 years is more likely. That's going to drop way down when the hiring boom kicks in late next year.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
You can't just look at pay scales. That doesn't paint a true picture at all. If you looked at my pay rate, you'd think I only made about $80k. But that's not even close to what I really make. The average AirTran pilot makes about 1150 hours of credit each year, thanks to the work rules and all of the soft pay that's available. You won't see that by looking at just a pay scale. The same is true at many regionals. My pay rate at Pinnacle when I left was only about $65/hr, but I made just under $80k on that.



There aren't too many regionals with 10-12 year upgrades. Probably about 4-6 years is more likely. That's going to drop way down when the hiring boom kicks in late next year.
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In Soviet Russia, upgrade hires YOU!
 
ATN_Pilot said:
You can't just look at pay scales. That doesn't paint a true picture at all. If you looked at my pay rate, you'd think I only made about $80k. But that's not even close to what I really make. The average AirTran pilot makes about 1150 hours of credit each year, thanks to the work rules and all of the soft pay that's available. You won't see that by looking at just a pay scale. The same is true at many regionals. My pay rate at Pinnacle when I left was only about $65/hr, but I made just under $80k on that.



There aren't too many regionals with 10-12 year upgrades. Probably about 4-6 years is more likely. That's going to drop way down when the hiring boom kicks in late next year.
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Thats a whole bunch of working to make more than $80k a year. You only get paid by the flight hour right?
 
mshunter said:
Thats a whole bunch of working to make more than $80k a year. You only get paid by the flight hour right?
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Not quite. ATN referred to "soft pay" in his post, which includes duty rigs, min day pay, and other negotiated compensation. For example, I'd routinely fly 70-80 hours of "FAR block" and CREDIT 100+ hours a month thanks to duty rigs. For your reference, here is what my W-2 said, MINUS per diem and rounded down, from my time as an FO at the regionals. I left out my time in the training department.

1st year regional FO: $22,000
2nd year regional FO: $44,000
3rd year regional FO: $43,000 (I took an entire month off without pay)
4th year regional FO: $51,000

Don't get me wrong: there is plenty to be desired when working for a regional (better schedules, commutability, etc.). That being said, I was not "uncomfortable" at my 50-seat regional jet operator.
 
Doug Taylor said:
If your regional paid $80K to start, the synthetic "shortage" will solve itself virtually overnight.
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The problem is 80K to start is not a realistic amount. Hell find me a mainline airline that starts at 80K. Even 80K on the top end of FO pay at a regional is not realistic. I just don't see any way to pay FOs more then a $1 a hour per a seat. SO you have FOs topping out at $50-$80. Regional pilots are some of the highest per a seat paid pilots.
 
Gonzo said:
The problem is 80K to start is not a realistic amount. Hell find me a mainline airline that starts at 80K. Even 80K on the top end of FO pay at a regional is not realistic. I just don't see any way to pay FOs more then a $1 a hour per a seat. SO you have FOs topping out at $50-$80. Regional pilots are some of the highest per a seat paid pilots.
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I'm not sure pay is even the primary problem at some regionals. I think Doug's argument still has merit, but would contend that overall treatment is the factor preventing some qualified pilots from entertaining the idea of working for a regional. If regional airlines made an effort to improve schedules (in line with modern sleep science and commutable on at least one end) and allow pilots more schedule control (swapping, dropping, personal days, etc.), I think there would be more interest.

Pay is certainly a factor, but I think there are a lot of "soft benefits" that need improvement as well.
 
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