Delta ponders pilot sources (Flightglobal article)

[derg]

A couple of "from the peanut gallery" notes on AA and DL. AA has a pretty large gulf of furloughed pilots. DL-S is a relatively young group as during 2005, if you were 50 and had some years of experience, you probably took an early-out so for a period of time, it was "How old are you? What the heck are you still doing here?". DL-N is somewhat older, as a group.

The biggest threats are cabotage and expanded international codeshare. If we let go of those two items, a domestic pilot "shortage", will find a global solution overnight.

Speaking of shortages, when I was in high school they were talking massive pilot shortages and here my career is almost at the half-way point after 20 years and I still haven't seen it! Great marketing tool that is!

 

[MikeD]

The biggest threats are cabotage and expanded international codeshare. If we let go of those two items, a domestic pilot "shortage", will find a global solution overnight.

But....but, we're a global economy!!

And Delta had their ab initio........called DCA

 

[Center_Mid]

There are things about the airline industry that remain a mystery to me. I thought a key purpose of an ab initio program was to identify pilot candidates most likely to succeed in the 121/CRM/FMS universe. Forgive me for asking a dumb question, but isn't flying the line for a regional strong evidence that an individual is likely to succeed at a major? I know that might not be true for everyone, just like not every F-16 pilot will make a good MD-80 FO. But we (and "we" includes Delta) reasonably expect the F-16 guy to do well. Why doesn't the ERJ guy get the same presumption of competence?

If the answer is "well, regional training depts don't uniformly adhere to legacy training standards," then don't the legacies have an interest in investing in regional training? If for no other reason than to maintain a steady supply of qualified pilot candidates? That investment might be cheaper than creating an ab initio program from scratch.

 

[MikeD]

Forgive me for asking a dumb question, but isn't flying the line for a regional strong evidence that an individual is likely to succeed at a major?

No. It's only evidence that they'll do that job for nearly nothing in compensation.

 

[jynxyjoe]

There are things about the airline industry that remain a mystery to me. I thought a key purpose of an ab initio program was to identify pilot candidates most likely to succeed in the 121/CRM/FMS universe. Forgive me for asking a dumb question, but isn't flying the line for a regional strong evidence that an individual is likely to succeed at a major? I know that might not be true for everyone, just like not every F-16 pilot will make a good MD-80 FO. But we (and "we" includes Delta) reasonably expect the F-16 guy to do well. Why doesn't the ERJ guy get the same presumption of competence?

If the answer is "well, regional training depts don't uniformly adhere to legacy training standards," then don't the legacies have an interest in investing in regional training? If for no other reason than to maintain a steady supply of qualified pilot candidates? That investment might be cheaper than creating an ab initio program from scratch.

No. It's only evidence that they'll do that job for nearly nothing.

Regionals are bad mmmmkay.

 

[TopGunn]

except thatthere is not an endless supply of pilots in the US. AOPA ran an article last year about how instructing has dropped off. The number of instructors out there who can actually make a living on it has gone to almost zero, and the number of primary students in the country has dropped 98% in the last ten years. Thats just those looking at getting a private cert, the numbers are much worse for the few of those who will go on to pursue aviation as a career. One of two things are going to happen with the airlines in the next ten to 15 years. You will either see regionals grow and the majors shrink, or the regionals will trend towards going away completely. I hope its the later but in any case look at the number of old guys that are about to retire from the majors. Look at USAir first. what is that, a 7000 pilot group? 87% of them are over the age of 55, 87%! That is a huge amount of movement in the next ten years, starting in DEC of 2012, if the world doesn't end first . American Airlines is probably the next oldest, 80% are over the age of 50. Last I heard only around 400 of them were under 40. I haven't looked to see if it works out or not, but I have a buddy of mine who works for ASA, math wiz, he said after running the numbers there aren't enough regional captains in the US to replace the retirees from just American, much less the whole industry. Delta isn't super young, and neither is United. Things are gonna change guys... and only for the better!

Love your optimism.

 

[derg]

There are things about the airline industry that remain a mystery to me. I thought a key purpose of an ab initio program was to identify pilot candidates most likely to succeed in the 121/CRM/FMS universe. Forgive me for asking a dumb question, but isn't flying the line for a regional strong evidence that an individual is likely to succeed at a major? I know that might not be true for everyone, just like not every F-16 pilot will make a good MD-80 FO. But we (and "we" includes Delta) reasonably expect the F-16 guy to do well. Why doesn't the ERJ guy get the same presumption of competence?

If the answer is "well, regional training depts don't uniformly adhere to legacy training standards," then don't the legacies have an interest in investing in regional training? If for no other reason than to maintain a steady supply of qualified pilot candidates? That investment might be cheaper than creating an ab initio program from scratch.

I really don't think anyone is god's gift to aviation but I think it's a little like this.

Among the standards for entry to qualify for UPT are physical aptitude, education and cognitive skills. But a large percentage of those people who qualify will wash out during the process. If you start getting negative evaluations, you're going to end up a chief bottle washer.

The basic standard for entry to begin career pilot flight training are pretty much money. You can fail every checkride and at the end of the day, so to speak, still get a flying job in the civilian sector.

We, the royal "civilian we", don't have an element of the finality of a washout the way military flying does. I think it would help if we did and had some sort of "minimum standard" for career entrants.

 

[Gonzo]

There are things about the airline industry that remain a mystery to me. I thought a key purpose of an ab initio program was to identify pilot candidates most likely to succeed in the 121/CRM/FMS universe. Forgive me for asking a dumb question, but isn't flying the line for a regional strong evidence that an individual is likely to succeed at a major? I know that might not be true for everyone, just like not every F-16 pilot will make a good MD-80 FO. But we (and "we" includes Delta) reasonably expect the F-16 guy to do well. Why doesn't the ERJ guy get the same presumption of competence?

If the answer is "well, regional training depts don't uniformly adhere to legacy training standards," then don't the legacies have an interest in investing in regional training? If for no other reason than to maintain a steady supply of qualified pilot candidates? That investment might be cheaper than creating an ab initio program from scratch.

No, because flying is only a small part of what a major is looking for.
Most regional airlines are looking for some one to fill the seat and not crash.
Most major and LLC airlines are looking for a person that fits their corporate culture. I can teach a monkey how to fly an airplane.
Most of the high paying airlines are hiring a person not a logbook, most regional airlines hire a logbook and could care less about the person.

 

[derg]

I think we need to modernize the definition of professionalism and hold ourselves to that standard. But there's too many of us that want to chase glory, chickens and get those sweet sweet captain epaulets at the earliest possible moment and get the weekends off so we can tell the barflies about how we almost died once in an airplane.

 

[MikeD]

I think we need to modernize the definition of professionalism and hold ourselves to that standard. But there's too many of us that want to chase glory, chickens and get those sweet sweet captain epaulets at the earliest possible moment and get the weekends off so we can tell the barflies about how we almost died once in an airplane.

As I said a few posts before.......

It'll never happen. Just go take one look at the 20 page Commutair thread down in the Jobs Available section, for proof of all those willing to work for next to nothing.

We, the royal "civilian we", don't have an element of the finality of a washout the way military flying does. I think it would help if we did and had some sort of "minimum standard" for career entrants.

So long as the almighty dollar is thrown out there to "keep training the student", you'll never have washouts. At worst, you'll just have "professional student pilots".

 

[dasleben]

I think we need to modernize the definition of professionalism and hold ourselves to that standard. But there's too many of us that want to chase glory, chickens and get those sweet sweet captain epaulets at the earliest possible moment and get the weekends off so we can tell the barflies about how we almost died once in an airplane.

Absolutely agree. The work itself should be more important than the result of the work.

 

[Center_Mid]

We, the royal "civilian we", don't have an element of the finality of a washout the way military flying does. I think it would help if we did and had some sort of "minimum standard" for career entrants.

I get that. And I don't want to get into the old military vs. civilian discussion. Comparing RJ pilots to F-16 pilots is an "apples to really unusual apples" comparison. Still, I would think that if the regionals can produce a steady flow of 2500hr TPIC RJ captains with no violations, the legacies would scoop them up instead of trying to solve the theoretical shortage by rounding up pilot candidates and washing out 2/3 of them. UPT ain't cheap.

Of course, UPT would be a helluva lot cheaper for the taxpayers if every 2LT had to sign a promissory note to cover the training costs. Hey, deficit problem solved!

 

[Center_Mid]

Most of the high paying airlines are hiring a person not a logbook, most regional airlines hire a logbook and could care less about the person.

That's just about the neatest breakdown of the difference between regionals and majors I've ever read. I have no idea if it's true since I'm not an airline pilot, but it rings true given what I've seen and heard and read.

 

[FL900]

Burn the industry down and start again.

National Senority List.

Seriously? The Founders are spinning in their graves. God help us.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Seriously? The Founders are spinning in their graves. God help us.

You're right. Death to unions!

 

[dasleben]

Seriously? The Founders are spinning in their graves. God help us.

Unfortunately, the current seniority system (which has some uses) has caused unintended consequences like this one. If anything, I think the entire seniority system should be torn down and replaced by an actual merit and experience-based system. Unfortunately, those who don't have either will cry foul all the way.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Unfortunately, the current seniority system (which has some uses) has caused unintended consequences like this one.

Like what one, or are you referring to the quote where the founders roll around in their graves?

 

[Gonzo]

Unfortunately, the current seniority system (which has some uses) has caused unintended consequences like this one. If anything, I think the entire seniority system should be torn down and replaced by an actual merit and experience-based system. Unfortunately, those who don't have either will cry foul all the way.

What would you based your merit system on? I have never gotten an answer to this question.

 

[jynxyjoe]

What would you based your merit system on? I have never gotten an answer to this question.

MY guess would be, merit based on how good you look in your uniform. How bushy is your mustache. Hopefully it's not, how quickly would I sell my QOL and compensation down a river.

 

[mshunter]

What would you based your merit system on? I have never gotten an answer to this question.

MY guess would be, merit based on how good you look in your uniform. How bushy is your mustache. Hopefully it's not, how quickly would I sell my QOL and compensation down a river.

For starters, by being treated as a person, and not a number. By how much time you have, not how long you've been with the company alone. Being with a company for x numbers of years is not a representaion of how experinced you are. Remember previous thread where someone was in IOE for 45 hours? Times, although not perfect, is a better indicator of experince, otherwise one would be able to get hired into a BBJ/G550/A380 woth 250TT.

There are so many ways. Time with the company should be one factor, but merrit/skill should be as well. Records are already kept by captains on FO performance, are they not?