The hiring boom

Turbine

Turbine

Well-Known Member
So we all know the talk about the big hiring boom that is coming. Were already seeing some movement in the industry, but not quite the mass scale hiring that has been projected. My question is, when do you think this big hiring boom is going to start? Granted it doesn't happen overnight, and may have started already to some degree..but when will the huge demand for pilots come? After all that's what the talk is, that airlines won't have enough pilots to fill the positions.

Your thoughts..
 
I'm not sure they will ever run out of pilots, but we seem to be in some sort of hiring spurt. I heard eagle is already down to 800/1. If it gets much lower it'll be just like last time... 250/pulse. Probably exactly like it though, where 3/4 of the pilots hired are on furlough in 2 years.. enjoy the roller coaster.
 
Turbine said:
So we all know the talk about the big hiring boom that is coming. Were already seeing some movement in the industry, but not quite the mass scale hiring that has been projected. My question is, when do you think this big hiring boom is going to start? Granted it doesn't happen overnight, and may have started already to some degree..but when will the huge demand for pilots come? After all that's what the talk is, that airlines won't have enough pilots to fill the positions.

Your thoughts..
Click to expand...

What talk about a hiring boom? Who is projecting one?
 
Turbine said:
So we all know the talk about the big hiring boom that is coming. Were already seeing some movement in the industry, but not quite the mass scale hiring that has been projected. My question is, when do you think this big hiring boom is going to start? Granted it doesn't happen overnight, and may have started already to some degree..but when will the huge demand for pilots come? After all that's what the talk is, that airlines won't have enough pilots to fill the positions.

Your thoughts..
Click to expand...

My thoughts? Well, I'm not betting against the largest economy in the world.

That said, the growth is not going to be in the lower 48, that is for sure.

China.

The companies that can capitalize on growth overseas are the ones that are going to expand.

The rest are going to be hiring to cover retirements for a while, and eventually maybe some growth if they don't outsource any more than they already have. It does seem like the outsourcing has finally reached a peak and fuel costs are going to maybe force it to start going the other way.

That is not meant to sound pessimistic, just realistic. The growth is not in North America, it is in Asia.

Honestly, I am jealous of the students I taught as a CFI a few years ago. 36 months on property at the company that will most likely be their career in China and they are at the point of upgrading to captain. Some already are. Their aviation industry now is what was going on in the USA in the 1960s.
 
Turbine said:
So we all know the talk about the big hiring boom that is coming. Were already seeing some movement in the industry, but not quite the mass scale hiring that has been projected. My question is, when do you think this big hiring boom is going to start? Granted it doesn't happen overnight, and may have started already to some degree..but when will the huge demand for pilots come? After all that's what the talk is, that airlines won't have enough pilots to fill the positions.

Your thoughts..
Click to expand...

It already has started.
 
Nick said:
My thoughts? Well, I'm not betting against the largest economy in the world.

That said, the growth is not going to be in the lower 48, that is for sure.

China.

The companies that can capitalize on growth overseas are the ones that are going to expand.

The rest are going to be hiring to cover retirements for a while, and eventually maybe some growth if they don't outsource any more than they already have. It does seem like the outsourcing has finally reached a peak and fuel costs are going to maybe force it to start going the other way.

That is not meant to sound pessimistic, just realistic. The growth is not in North America, it is in Asia.

Honestly, I am jealous of the students I taught as a CFI a few years ago. 36 months on property at the company that will most likely be their career in China and they are at the point of upgrading to captain. Some already are. Their aviation industry now is what was going on in the USA in the 1960s.
Click to expand...

Not much to add, except they know how to milk a cow without killing it along the way.
 
Turbine said:
Pilots ive talked to, "industry experts", rumor.etc..
Click to expand...

Would they happen to be in the pilot certification business? (I am skeptical about the "great pilot shortage" that always seems to be right around the corner.)
 
Nick said:
My thoughts? Well, I'm not betting against the largest economy in the world.

That said, the growth is not going to be in the lower 48, that is for sure.

China.

The companies that can capitalize on growth overseas are the ones that are going to expand.

The rest are going to be hiring to cover retirements for a while, and eventually maybe some growth if they don't outsource any more than they already have. It does seem like the outsourcing has finally reached a peak and fuel costs are going to maybe force it to start going the other way.

That is not meant to sound pessimistic, just realistic. The growth is not in North America, it is in Asia.

Honestly, I am jealous of the students I taught as a CFI a few years ago. 36 months on property at the company that will most likely be their career in China and they are at the point of upgrading to captain. Some already are. Their aviation industry now is what was going on in the USA in the 1960s.
Click to expand...

We are at the same point too (at a lower scale). South America is doing very well economically, our company alone has ordered almost 50 aircrafts (Airbus). Everyone in Colombia is hiring, and it's pretty much the same all around us. The thing is that I don't think I'd want to live and China and have to deal with Chinese management...
 
I feel one coming on too, and believe it even more based on what I heard from an alpa executive today, who is saying in about 2 years it is going to explode again.
 
You know the old one about believe aircraft deliveries when the plane is parked on the ramp? Somehow seems a propos. One thing's for sure: no one knows.
 
Autothrust Blue said:
Would they happen to be in the pilot certification business? (I am skeptical about the "great pilot shortage" that always seems to be right around the corner.)
Click to expand...

Nope, I actually just mentioned that to someone today. Flight schools claiming "there has never been a better time to train". They claim that same statement year round, so I definitely understand what your saying.
 
Actually scratch that. Two things are certain. No one knows. And it is in the interest of everyone who is proclaiming a forthcoming pilot shortage for people to believe that there is a forthcoming pilot shortage. Not saying it's not coming...myself, I'm extremely "cautiously optimistic". But consider the source.
 
If retirement is what is expected to cause future hiring, what caused the last hiring boom?

It seemed to come out of nowhere, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention.
 
tlewis95 said:
I feel one coming on too, and believe it even more based on what I heard from an alpa executive today, who is saying in about 2 years it is going to explode again.
Click to expand...

Yes, there it is. The industry cycle is coming to an upswing, as Kit Darby says.
 
Douglas said:
If retirement is what is expected to cause future hiring, what caused the last hiring boom?

It seemed to come out of nowhere, but maybe I just wasn't paying attention.
Click to expand...

I defer to the airline guys, but from what I can tell, it happened because there was insane, runaway expansion at the regionals as they took over mainline routes in the wake of the 9/11 malestrom. No doubt the ludicrous, unsustainable economic bubble of the early to mid aughts had something to do with it, too.
 
I don't think I'd necessarily focus on boom or bust.

If aviation is a profession you want to enter, get in, do your best to succeed and stay hungry. Move up the food chain.

No flying is safe and the closer you move up the food chain to who actually owns the flying, the better.

Technique only and your mileage may vary.
 
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