Pilots sought after travel boom?

MJetR said:
At my flight school, I hear both schools of thought -- shortage and no shortage. The media is hyping up the shortage hence I'm trying to see whats really going on. :bandit:
Click to expand...
The only thing going on is the doggie hasn't pulled away the curtain yet.
 
I think there will be a boom time similar to pre-2008 hiring again in a year or so, but shortage? Maybe. If the guys in the left seat at the majors start retiring at a decent clip, and there's nobody getting into flying (due to costs, etc) then I see the potential for there to be a lack of pilots in certain segments of the industry. That said, I don't think its going to be quite as your flight school forecasts, let alone some post-apocalyptic Kit-Darby hell-scape.
 
Whether there ever is a shortage or not, we've already seen that when there is a demand in this industry, instead of increasing wages and incentives to attract the best candidate, airlines and other operators will just lower the bar, so they can hire the person with the minimum legal qualifications, more minimal pay.
 
I am not here to be the voice of doom and gloom believe me....but a touch of reality and this is just my opinion and two cents worth. How many current furloughed pilots are here at the Legacy and Regional carriers in this country? Plenty. How many more mergers or BKS may happen next year? No one knows. There have been a few this year. You also need to look at the projected retirement numbers at the Major carriers for right and left seat. There is no real shortage here in the US of qualified pilots nor will there be one in the near future.

I know a pilot who was just recently hired on by JBLU and he has been hoping and vying for this opportunity for several years now....had an ap in the pipeline a long damn time. It's a non union carrier, he will have to move himself and his wife and two kids and he is excited as all get out. They are still a decent outfit and I am happy for him.

Look at the Regionals here for example. A decade and a half ago they were a blip on the radar. Now they carry half of all domestic pax. How does this affect the Majors? It's not good. I see them continuing to turn over seats to the Regionals frankly. The Mainliners will keep and expand larger jets (parking smaller aircraft) and the Regionals will fly and expand the mid size jets.

That being said, some of the foreign carriers have wanky work rules and do you really want to domicile in China or UAE? Then you need to look at the qualifications for each carrier abroad, (and some of the requirements are much stiffer than they are currently in this country) the pay, the length of time to upgrade, the cost to live abroad, the taxes, how many cadets to the carriers already have in training and how many in the pools and much more. In some countries, US pilots are not exactly welcomed either. Even conversion training to a JAA license for example, is often difficult for a pilot from here. Not to mention that the license issued by the JAA is specific to that airline so the person is then married to that carrier.

Many EU carriers and contractors will simply not accept an only FAA licensed pilot. It is much more common, to see a foreign national with US FAA credentials, employed in the US, than it is to see a US citizen employed as a pilot in some EU countries.

So when reading these "reports" in the media, one needs to look at the details, the specifics and do a little research to balance out the reality and practicality of the situation.
 
I'll give you a example of some of my old squadron buddies. Being from the P3 community, there a lot of pilots that are fully qualified but for one reason or another, haven't flown in 5+ years. I had some guard squadron mates that use to fly BONES and they aren't looking for a flying job thank you very much. They aren't gonna seat right seat in a CRJ for peanuts. They are not currently competitive for the majors. They will press on with their lives and never look back.

I hate to repeat it too much but is oft said here by many: no shortage, just a shortage of people who wont work for peanuts 20 days away from home. I could name 15 to 20 dudes off the top of my head that could succeed tomorrow in the majors if it was worth their time.
my .02
 
MJetR said:
Hi everyone,

A colleague I had met while in Hong Kong, attending the CX cadet interviews sent me this and I thought I'd share. Just wondering how much is proving to be true or looking like it's going to happen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...vel-boom-in-asia-creates-shortage.html?ref=nf
Click to expand...

You also need to consider 2 separate parts of this equation:

First, Kit Darby is an idiot, a self-proclaimed authority of aviation. But if you listen to what he says, he hasn't been right in his predictions...pretty much ever. He's the front man for recruiting uninformed people into pilot mills to keep them in business.

Second, the airlines addressed in the article are major players. Look at Emrates- the MINIMUM experience for direct entry to Captain (remember this is not competitive) is:

10,000 hours total time
and among other things, about 4,000 hours as an airline pilot.

What do you think competitive times are?

That narrows the playing field significantly, so yes, when you look at the upper echelon of pilots there is a slight shortage of those who are willing to be ex-pats with that type of experience BECAUSE:

they are most likely older and have families which they may not want to uproot for the pay.

Now, let's look at one other part....

The Asian market is growing: India/China etc.

Recently you might have read about underqualified Chinese pilots doctoring their logbook to obtain positions as flight deck crew.

The culture is different over seas, and even IF there were a shortage for lower time pilots, they most likely will be filled with only a small percentage of non-national pilots.

So, what you're really interested in might be: "Well, what are the prospects for me, living in North America as I begin my journey as an aspiring pilot, who might be interested in the airlines?"

There are many sarcastic replies I could insert, but I'll just answer your initial question - there really is no pilot shortage for entry level pilots.
 
Duck_Twacy said:
LOVE the new avatar.

My neighbor just got a set up and we have put down many frosty beverages playing well into the dark the last two weekends.

And, yes, it does sound gay.

</thread hijack>
Click to expand...

Sweet! My friend and I are actually in a bar league here in St. Pete. In fact we just won the championships last week. We started our fourth season this week - it's really a lot of fun.
 
MRJET

Cathay Pacific, for example, who claims there is a shortage, recently turned myself down as well as probably 50+ other pilots who had already passed all their pilot interviews and waited over a year in their holding pool.

The reason? We would be too expensive, compared to the inexperienced cadets that they are now moving towards hiring instead.

Bottom line:

There is no pilot shortage, never will be. There is however, a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap pay and conditions.
 
Prodrive555 said:
MRJET

Cathay Pacific, for example, who claims there is a shortage, recently turned myself down as well as probably 50+ other pilots who had already passed all their pilot interviews and waited over a year in their holding pool.

The reason? We would be too expensive, compared to the inexperienced cadets that they are now moving towards hiring instead.

Bottom line:

There is no pilot shortage, never will be. There is however, a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap pay and conditions.
Click to expand...

Thank you all for your posts. During my interview I asked the two training captains why open the cadet-ship to international, why now? They looked at each other and said 'it's purely economic'. After sitting in on their presentation and realizing that living in HK on 55K/year as a SO without housing, I realized that it's just not for me. However, they have been receiving a tremendous amount of applicants a year, even now offering a short course to pilots with hundreds of hours. So it seems that there will really be no shortage as these guys are willing to work for peanuts.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top