HeyEng
Well-Known Member
I tend to get my weather from the NWS. The local TV meteorologists are a bunch of idiots and the NWS seems to forecast pretty well. As a rule, I tend to read the "scientific discussion" they put out every few hours. Anyway, the last few updates have discussed the "tropical depression" (officially named TD 2) extensively and on every update for the last 12-18 hours they have been calling "TD 2" "dew point 2". Why would they be calling it "dew point"? I almost have to think it has something to do with the software they use to put out the reports, but maybe one of cool guys out there have a better answer. Here is latest update:
Discussion...
heavy rains from dew point 2 remains likely across much of the area this
evening where feeder showers continue to move onshore across nearly
all of the Texas coast. With the dew point weakening and moving roughly
parallel and to the south of the Rio Grande overnight...the heavy
rain potential will contract southwest over the next 6-12 hours
toward the center of circulation. This process will become more
dramatic after dark...with another 1 to 3 inches of rain possible
across all of south central Texas for the tonight period. Later
this evening the next shift will be able to assess additional
model and upper air analysis and decide if probability of precipitation and flood
potential will possibly lower from east to west after midnight.
The flash Flood Advisory will likely remain intact through tonight for the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande plains where there is a slight possibility
of a core rain event extending as far north as del Rio. Highest
quantitative precipitation forecast is over Maverick County from 12-18z where feeder cells could
train around the northern part of the disturbance as it tracks SW
of Laredo. Another concern is that secondary rotations can be
seen already on radar...and these small features could expand the
area of influence of dew point 2 through early Friday morning. All of
this makes for a sensitive situation for the communities along the
Rio Grande as significant flooding continues in response to the
rains from former Hurricane Alex.
Discussion...
heavy rains from dew point 2 remains likely across much of the area this
evening where feeder showers continue to move onshore across nearly
all of the Texas coast. With the dew point weakening and moving roughly
parallel and to the south of the Rio Grande overnight...the heavy
rain potential will contract southwest over the next 6-12 hours
toward the center of circulation. This process will become more
dramatic after dark...with another 1 to 3 inches of rain possible
across all of south central Texas for the tonight period. Later
this evening the next shift will be able to assess additional
model and upper air analysis and decide if probability of precipitation and flood
potential will possibly lower from east to west after midnight.
The flash Flood Advisory will likely remain intact through tonight for the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande plains where there is a slight possibility
of a core rain event extending as far north as del Rio. Highest
quantitative precipitation forecast is over Maverick County from 12-18z where feeder cells could
train around the northern part of the disturbance as it tracks SW
of Laredo. Another concern is that secondary rotations can be
seen already on radar...and these small features could expand the
area of influence of dew point 2 through early Friday morning. All of
this makes for a sensitive situation for the communities along the
Rio Grande as significant flooding continues in response to the
rains from former Hurricane Alex.
