Is there still plenty of time?

NJA_Capt said:
For the last 10 years, student starts have averaged 60,000 per year. New commercials average about 9000 per year. New ATP issuances average approx 5000 per year.
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how many of those are foreign students? I know at my flight school, i'm the only american, everyone else, including the instructors are heading back to india.
 
ahsmatt7 said:
I understand. However I would like that the first 20 not be spent scraping money from under the couch cushions to pay bills. If the airlines are not going to be a viable option then I will pursue another career in aviation or just go into a career outside of aviation and fly for a hobby.
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It's all fate, or luck if you don't believe in fate.

A JC member was hired at a major when he was 22 years old, he ended up living out of his car for a while when he was furloughed. He now flies for a large corporation.

A guy I met makes 200k + flying with a great schedule. However, when he was building time he said him and his wife were scraping for money. Once he told me he was going on a 4 day and asked his wife for money to eat, all they had at the time was a $20 bill.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Retirements start big in December 2012, and go on indefinitely. Delta has as many as 800 retirements per year in some years. But pretty much all of the majors have 300+ retirements per year, so you're looking at 2000+ retirements per year just at the legacies. This doesn't account for any growth, which we can safely assume will begin in a few years as the economy rebounds. I honestly think we'll see things again as they were in 1999-2001, when pilots were getting offers from DAL, AMR, and UAL simultaneously with less than 3,000 total time. Anyone that's finishing their ratings in the next 2-3 years should be set up well for a quick climb up the career ladder.
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Whew... your koolaid is amazing, and for me much needed. Just curious where you get these numbers, you have seniority numbers/ages of each legacy airline group?
 
PGT said:
It's all fate, or luck if you don't believe in fate.

A JC member was hired at a major when he was 22 years old, he ended up living out of his car for a while when he was furloughed. He now flies for a large corporation.

A guy I met makes 200k + flying with a great schedule. However, when he was building time he said him and his wife were scraping for money. Once he told me he was going on a 4 day and asked his wife for money to eat, all they had at the time was a $20 bill.
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That's just horrible, A part of me does not think its worth going through that. However, I have always wanted to fly. :confused:
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Retirements start big in December 2012, and go on indefinitely. Delta has as many as 800 retirements per year in some years. But pretty much all of the majors have 300+ retirements per year, so you're looking at 2000+ retirements per year just at the legacies. This doesn't account for any growth, which we can safely assume will begin in a few years as the economy rebounds. I honestly think we'll see things again as they were in 1999-2001, when pilots were getting offers from DAL, AMR, and UAL simultaneously with less than 3,000 total time. Anyone that's finishing their ratings in the next 2-3 years should be set up well for a quick climb up the career ladder.
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I hope it plays out like this, with few (or no) huge hurdles for the industry. It would be great to get recalled and be riding the front of a multi-year wave of hiring.
 
You guys are basing this on major retirements. I would venture to guess that the only people that will benefit from an actual pilot shortage in 2012 and beyond will be current regional pilots. Someone that is starting training now might be able to get on at the end of that wave but the majority will be working for the regionals.
 
Socal321 said:
You guys are basing this on major retirements. I would venture to guess that the only people that will benefit from an actual pilot shortage in 2012 and beyond will be current regional pilots. Someone that is starting training now might be able to get on at the end of that wave but the majority will be working for the regionals.
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Historically, that's not the case. There are enough pilots at the regionals that don't want to move on that it leaves a lot of openings for the more junior pilots to move up. Take a look at how senior the lists at regionals like Eagle, Comair, and Piedmont are. Tons of these guys are staying put and not going anywhere.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Historically, that's not the case. There are enough pilots at the regionals that don't want to move on that it leaves a lot of openings for the more junior pilots to move up. Take a look at how senior the lists at regionals like Eagle, Comair, and Piedmont are. Tons of these guys are staying put and not going anywhere.
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If the senior guys aren't moving, then how do the junior guys get to move? This seniority stuff always confuses me.
 
ahsmatt7 said:
If the senior guys aren't moving, then how do the junior guys get to move? This seniority stuff always confuses me.
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Imagine a regional airline seniority list with just 10 people on it.

If the top 4 people "don't want to move on to a major airline", then the lower 6 will still send in their resumes to the majors when they build enough time, interview, and maybe get hired. Meanwhile the top 4 people at the regional will stay there.
 
ahsmatt7 said:
If the senior guys aren't moving, then how do the junior guys get to move? This seniority stuff always confuses me.
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If you are a 15 year Regional Captain making $90/hour, first year FO pay at a major suddenly doesn't sound so great. On reserve. Going to the bottom of a seniority list. And having a much higher risk of furlough when things slow down.

I'm not an airline pilot, that's just my speculation.
 
Clocks said:
Imagine a regional airline seniority list with just 10 people on it.

If the top 4 people "don't want to move on to a major airline", then the lower 6 will still send in their resumes to the majors when they build enough time, interview, and maybe get hired. Meanwhile the top 4 people at the regional will stay there.
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I understand now. This is only true for the captains correct. Don't the majors require turbine PIC time. Assuming that some of the junior guys on that list came from the CFI ranks, they wouldn't have any TPIC time. AAHHH I see now, those FO's would now move up where the other guys who left where in the seniority list. It all makes sense.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
If you are a 15 year Regional Captain making $90/hour, first year FO pay at a major suddenly doesn't sound so great. On reserve. Going to the bottom of a seniority list. And having a much higher risk of furlough when things slow down.

I'm not an airline pilot, that's just my speculation.
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That's the time calculated risks come into play. Does one move on in hopes to get hired early enough to make the proverbial "cut," or does one stay at the level they currently are at and catch the next wave...if they have time. Its a big cut but most would rather top out at $168/hr rather than $90/hr. It's a risk like you said though. A scary one at that.
 
The age 65 rule gives the more senior guys a little more time to play. Given the right kind of job I'm sure they would jump on it instead of retiring as a CRJ pilot. The problem is that there hasn't been that kind of job because no one is hiring regularly. If I was a 10-20 year CA I would probably be reluctant to go to Allegiant as well, but if it was DAL or Fedex, I'd reconsider.
 
Is there still time? I don't know. Is there somewhere else you need to be?

If you want to be a professional pilot, start working at it. There's no time limit. You'll get there when you get there.

A lot of people will tell that timing is everything in this business. I call on that. You don't have any control over what will happen when in this business. You can't "time" it. All you can do is work to be prepared for when opportunity comes along. Yes, you may "miss" an opportunity for whatever reason, but that does not mean another won't come along.

There is no timing, and "luck" is where preparation meets opportunity.
 
ahsmatt7 said:
That's the time calculated risks come into play. Does one move on in hopes to get hired early enough to make the proverbial "cut," or does one stay at the level they currently are at and catch the next wave...if they have time. Its a big cut but most would rather top out at $168/hr rather than $90/hr. It's a risk like you said though. A scary one at that.
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I'm not moving from my regional because I am not going to roll the dice on my families well-being. I will be very happy and financially secure making $85-100+/hr while having furlough protection and good line bidding thanks to my high seniority level. Moving to a major just to be furlough fodder for a few years while commuting to junior reserve and making less money for a few years. Yes, it can pay off but I can think of thousands of pilots where that bet did not pay off. I think having a working wife/kids makes a big difference in your decision though. Maybe my outlook will change in the future.
 
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