Comm. Airline Pilots Increasing

H

heeha

New Member
According to a report on US News, the need for commerical airline pilots is expected to grow by 19% before 2018.

If you are an airline pilot, how do you feel about that report?

Will the demand for comm. pilots increase over the next decade?
 
heeha said:
According to a report on US News, the need for commerical airline pilots is expected to grow by 19% before 2018.

If you are an airline pilot, how do you feel about that report?

Will the demand for comm. pilots increase over the next decade?
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Suuuuuuure. How long have people been spouting this crap? The need for commercial pilots will not grow by 19%. The percentage of furloughs might grow by 19% though. ;) In all seriousness...don't buy the hype of astronomical growth and pilot shortages.
 
Makes sense, airlines have drastically reduced staff. They will have to increase staff due to increased demand and a growing population. There will be a lot more people in the world in 2018, so more pilots will be necessary. It may not be any easier to get a job, the increased population with prodoce lots of aspiring pilots. Limited credit, economic rebound, and age 65 could create a sticky situation for companies looking to hire entry-level pilots in a couple of years. There seems to be a vacuum forming after the pilots that completed their training prior to the credit crunch.
 
You're lying to yourself.

There has never been a pilot shortage, for all the things that have happened in the last 100 years.

History tells us that there won't a pilot shortage.

It's a hard pill to swallow, I know, trust me; I'm on furlough right now because there were TOO MANY pilots in the system, so trust me I know how much it hurts.

At the same time, don't believe the hype; there will never be a pilot shortage, and no matter what facts you bring up? It's been brought up before, and it fell through before.

slough said:
Makes sense, airlines have drastically reduced staff. They will have to increase staff due to increased demand and a growing population. There will be a lot more people in the world in 2018, so more pilots will be necessary. It may not be any easier to get a job, the increased population with prodoce lots of aspiring pilots. Limited credit, economic rebound, and age 65 could create a sticky situation for companies looking to hire entry-level pilots in a couple of years. There seems to be a vacuum forming after the pilots that completed their training prior to the credit crunch.
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Yes, it sounds like a reasonable number. Retirements start on the date you see below in the countdown in my signature, and retirements will number in the thousands per year.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Yes, it sounds like a reasonable number. Retirements start on the date you see below in the countdown in my signature, and retirements will number in the thousands per year.
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The talk when the 65 rule changed was generally that the geezers were expected to stay on an extra 2-3 years at most. That was, of course, before the recession. Are there any numbers on whether post-60 retirements are increasing, or are they all hanging on to resupply their retirement funds?
 
Clocks said:
The talk when the 65 rule changed was generally that the geezers were expected to stay on an extra 2-3 years at most. That was, of course, before the recession. Are there any numbers on whether post-60 retirements are increasing, or are they all hanging on to resupply their retirement funds?
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Retirements have been at a mere trickle. Don't expect any real numbers until 2012. The idea that these guys would bow out gracefully at 62-63 was just rhetoric spread by APAAD to get support from younger guys that were going to get screwed.
 
In two years, if the pilots are being hired in the numbers they were in 2006-2008 where will they come from? I am not involved in flight training, but from what I can gather the credit crunch reduced the number of american student pilots drastically. The old way of ramping up student pilot training with an increase in demand for pilots seems to have a significant roadblock. Maybe credit will loosen, or all the foreign pilots training in the U.S. will be allowed to stick around, who knows, but I do think it will be challenge for airlines in the coming years.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Retirements have been at a mere trickle. Don't expect any real numbers until 2012. The idea that these guys would bow out gracefully at 62-63 was just rhetoric spread by APAAD to get support from younger guys that were going to get screwed.
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Exactly!!! You couldn't have said it any better.
 
A lot of this demand for pilots is a world wide need as opposed to a domestic need. Any developing country is going to require more air traffic.
 
not sure were all of you get your facts. But when 50% of continental airlines pilots are gone in 2012 because of retirement, and the number of pilots being trained is down drastically because know one can afford it. Sounds like a nice recipe for a need for pilots. Same thing happened in 2007 when everyone and there brother got hired, they pushed the retirement age back just to delay the obvious.
 
Shortage was not even a part of the equation

It seems like some of the replies to the thread opener are mixing net growth in the airline industry with pilot shortage.

The two are completely different.

As the population grows the airlines will need to keep up if there is more demand to travel.

Whether or not the airlines will have a difficult time filling new hire classes is an entirely different situation, just like the quality and desirability of the jobs that do become available.

So, heeha, I do agree with the report barring any massive changes in the world such as indefinite $200/barrel oil or WW3.
 
matman said:
not sure were all of you get your facts. But when 50% of continental airlines pilots are gone in 2012 because of retirement, and the number of pilots being trained is down drastically because know one can afford it. Sounds like a nice recipe for a need for pilots. Same thing happened in 2007 when everyone and there brother got hired, they pushed the retirement age back just to delay the obvious.
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Exactly right! Age 65 saved the airlines some time but they know what is coming in a couple years. There will be unprecedented movement in the industry. The pilot shortage is not a myth, its reality.
 
jtrain609 said:
You're lying to yourself.

There has never been a pilot shortage, for all the things that have happened in the last 100 years.

History tells us that there won't a pilot shortage.

It's a hard pill to swallow, I know, trust me; I'm on furlough right now because there were TOO MANY pilots in the system, so trust me I know how much it hurts.

At the same time, don't believe the hype; there will never be a pilot shortage, and no matter what facts you bring up? It's been brought up before, and it fell through before.
Click to expand...

The number of retirements is way bigger than the number of furloughs. If age 65 had not happened you would not have been furloughed. In fact you might have been sitting left seat or at least close to it.
 
ATN_Pilot said:
Retirements have been at a mere trickle. Don't expect any real numbers until 2012. The idea that these guys would bow out gracefully at 62-63 was just rhetoric spread by APAAD to get support from younger guys that were going to get screwed.
Click to expand...

So says the guy that will fly until age 65.
 
Trip7 said:
The number of retirements is way bigger than the number of furloughs. If age 65 had not happened you would not have been furloughed. In fact you might have been sitting left seat or at least close to it.
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I got furloughed because my airline lost 39 airframes worth of flying in one week, with most of those coming from Delta.

The best thing that could have happened is I'd still have a job and be commuting to reserve in one of the CAL bases.
 
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