...good news for OOTSK...

[Polar742]

The freight's moving again, kids. "unpredicted demand" is never a bad thing....

http://www.aircargonews.net/News/Capacity-crunch.aspx

Capacity crunch

11-Dec-2009
SUDDENLY the first flickers of smiles are appearing on the faces of cargo airline executives as the peak season out of Asia provides a bonanza of bookings and a rate escalation that has at least helped partially stem the haemorrhaging of cash.
Yet the unpredicted demand does not signal the beginning of the end of the financial problems besetting the industry. Shippers are crying foul as rates ex-Hong Kong have exceeded US$6 per kg and delays of up to seven days have been experienced. Mainland China, Thailand and Malaysia are among a number of other Asian countries experiencing serious backlogs in airfreight.
Yet the shippers and forwarders that have been a major force in driving airfreight rates down to unsustainable levels, cannot complain as airlines have scrambled to remove capacity from the market.
The sudden lack of capacity and build-up of shipments waiting for transportation highlights the disjointed nature of the air cargo supply chain. That airlines and apparently forwarders too were taken by surprise reveals that the nature and volume of shippers demands seems almost invisible to the rest of the supply chain.
The backlogs in Asia should disappear by the end of the peak season, but capacity is going to remain a headache for forwarders and shippers. Airlines will cut back further in the coming year, which will push them increasingly towards alliances, predicted Gary Schultheis, vice-president of airfreight, the Americas at DHL Global Forwarding.
Pressure on yields in a soft first quarter will keep the lid on capacity increases and induce airlines to cut back more, he reckoned. “The carriers cannot afford to operate with equipment that does not make any money,” he said.

 

[killbilly]

Questions....

1) If I'm understanding this, capacity was cut to keep the freight prices high, but now the demand is outstripping the capacity, the freight is sitting there, people are pissed, and there's a ripe opportunity for a carrier to step in and move the cargo, yes?

2) Your employer is buying some new airplanes, yes?

3) Could these be related?

 

[Polar742]

Questions....

1) If I'm understanding this, capacity was cut to keep the freight prices high, but now the demand is outstripping the capacity, the freight is sitting there, people are pissed, and there's a ripe opportunity for a carrier to step in and move the cargo, yes?

Just more freight, so more hours and people recalled from furlough.

2) Your employer is buying some new airplanes, yes?

I can only comment on the following: a couple classics are pulled out of the desert and there are no -8s for years.

3) Could these be related?

One could hope.

 

[Roger, Roger]

Maybe I won't be a wannabe for so very much longer....

 

[A-300F4-622R]

This surge is just temporary. After peak is over, expect volumes to decline substantially.

 

[Polar742]

Considering there was NO peak last year, I'd class this as a plus.

We've had big volumes since June.

With the capacity rationalization and the stabilization of freight volumes overall, I'd predict a normal Q1 cycle. Some carriers are still pulling down fleets too.

That's a complete WAG though.

Luckily, it won't affect your employer's network, so no need for you to worry.

 

[Polar742]

Jumanji!!

http://www.aircargoworld.com/News/Year-Of-The-Tiger-For-AN-124

Year Of The Tiger For AN-124?

DHL Global Forwarding says it needs additional capacity to avoid backlogs between China and Europe throughout the first quarter of 2010.



The company confirms there was a strong increase in demand for space in the last two months of this year that led to “steep increases” in prices.
Thomas Nieszner, CEO Europe/CEE for DHL Global Forwarding said, "In order to mitigate the shortage of space we will be securing extra capacity from commercial carriers between North Asia and Europe throughout the first quarter of 2010.”


Nieszner thinks capacity constraints will continue as airlines remain reluctant to reactivate grounded aircraft due to the high cost.
DHL says that while demand for airfreight space normally drops at the beginning of a new year, its latest customer forecasts for the first quarter suggest demand will continue to put pressure on capacity on trade lanes between North Asia and Europe. The company notes capacity out of China, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan is in particularly high demand, with the next peak expected to occur before the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Tiger on February 14.

 

[falconvalley]

This surge is just temporary. After peak is over, expect volumes to decline substantially.

As if the fact that there is a peak at all is irrelevant?