Interesting article on the changing regional landscape...
- Thread starter Polar742
- Start date
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Yup.
But that's their fault though.
Not that I like it of course.
If I was Mainline A, and one of my regional contract feed vendors is now operating mainline sized craft competing directly with me - while I also provide them the ability to fly "regional" legs on the same route - I'd be a little concerned about their performance and their long term intentions.
Why should I continue to feed them cash when they could eventually eat my hand off?
But, then again, that's why one real Mainline partner won't be renewing one of their regional "partners" agreement.
Yup.
But that's their fault though.
Not that I like it of course.
If I was Mainline A, and one of my regional contract feed vendors is now operating mainline sized craft competing directly with me - while I also provide them the ability to fly "regional" legs on the same route - I'd be a little concerned about their performance and their long term intentions.
Why should I continue to feed them cash when they could eventually eat my hand off?
But, then again, that's why one real Mainline partner won't be renewing one of their regional "partners" agreement.
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Do you actually see this as a negative for the mainlines? They just found a way to replace their costly narrow body fleets. You missed thewhole point of the article. The problem will be with scope but that as we all know that has been circumvented many times in the past. At the very lest, this could mean regional style pay at the majors if they integrate this "RJ" flying. It's not good for anyone.
Do you actually see this as a negative for the mainlines? They just found a way to replace their costly narrow body fleets. You missed thewhole point of the article. The problem will be with scope but that as we all know that has been circumvented many times in the past. At the very lest, this could mean regional style pay at the majors if they integrate this "RJ" flying. It's not good for anyone.
SpiraMirabilis
Possible Subversive
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Replace them with costlier RJ fleets??
Replace them with costlier RJ fleets??
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Oh...I...see.
You see, I didn't read the article, but instead provided a response to another member, which is what you are now responding to trying to indicate as if it was some sort of response towards the linked article - which it was not.
Why any mainline partner would continue to feed the dog that is trying to bite it's hand is beyond me. Sure, Bedford doesn't admit he is trying to compete with his mainline partners (be it Delta or US Airways), but on some routes they are. He may not want to admit it, but I know managers at Delta are very concerned with his operation affecting Delta's revenue streams - all while they're paying them for services on Delta's network.
Oh...I...see.
You see, I didn't read the article, but instead provided a response to another member, which is what you are now responding to trying to indicate as if it was some sort of response towards the linked article - which it was not.
Why any mainline partner would continue to feed the dog that is trying to bite it's hand is beyond me. Sure, Bedford doesn't admit he is trying to compete with his mainline partners (be it Delta or US Airways), but on some routes they are. He may not want to admit it, but I know managers at Delta are very concerned with his operation affecting Delta's revenue streams - all while they're paying them for services on Delta's network.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
How can you NOT compete with DAL and the other mainline partners? That makes no sense. Unless you're doing point to point to small markets, you're competing, doesn't matter if it's admitted or not.
How can you NOT compete with DAL and the other mainline partners? That makes no sense. Unless you're doing point to point to small markets, you're competing, doesn't matter if it's admitted or not.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Exactly.
And it's viewed as a threat by the mainline companies. As it rightfully should. What is worse, is that these mainline companies are financing their enemies. Which, over a period of time (courtesy of contract terminations, expiration, and non-renewals), will eventually end. Which is my point. It's one thing to do the sub-contract feed for mainline A, but it's another thing all together if mainline A is financing their own direct competition. If mainline wants to survive, and with the furious nature of business being what it is, they should want to absolutely destroy all competition within a specific market place. That means not feeding the dog and letting it starve and die.
I'm not going to give the guy breaking into my house with an empty chamber a couple bullets he can use to kill myself and family.
Either way, Bedford is smart. It's the fools at the mainline companies who are now going to be feeding this animal until the contracts expire. They're directly financing a competitor, just amazing. But, gets back to Bedford. . .he knew how to make it happen. Now to see if long term it is successful.
Exactly.
And it's viewed as a threat by the mainline companies. As it rightfully should. What is worse, is that these mainline companies are financing their enemies. Which, over a period of time (courtesy of contract terminations, expiration, and non-renewals), will eventually end. Which is my point. It's one thing to do the sub-contract feed for mainline A, but it's another thing all together if mainline A is financing their own direct competition. If mainline wants to survive, and with the furious nature of business being what it is, they should want to absolutely destroy all competition within a specific market place. That means not feeding the dog and letting it starve and die.
I'm not going to give the guy breaking into my house with an empty chamber a couple bullets he can use to kill myself and family.
Either way, Bedford is smart. It's the fools at the mainline companies who are now going to be feeding this animal until the contracts expire. They're directly financing a competitor, just amazing. But, gets back to Bedford. . .he knew how to make it happen. Now to see if long term it is successful.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
I didn't start this to be a regional bashing thread.
I, naively, expected people to read the article. I thought it was a pretty good "State of the Industry" analysis.
I forgot it's uber cool to bash airlines instead of stopping to take stock and see how the landscape is changing around you.
Fighting yesterday's wars will not get you ahead.
I didn't start this to be a regional bashing thread.
I, naively, expected people to read the article. I thought it was a pretty good "State of the Industry" analysis.
I forgot it's uber cool to bash airlines instead of stopping to take stock and see how the landscape is changing around you.
Fighting yesterday's wars will not get you ahead.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
I can't say I see anyone bashing any regional.
What I'm saying is that it was damn smart for Bedford to position his company in a way that provided financing through regional partnerships while taking ownership of two mainline companies that have the ability to directly compete with his client partnerships. But, the risk in that is what happens when his mainline partnerships end because mainline doesn't like financing their competitor(s)?
Or at least that's what I'm talking about.
Thanks for sharing the link though Martin. It is a good analysis, and many more topics could be discussed that come from it. I merely picked one paragraph to focus on initially, if others wish to discuss other elements then so be it.
Don't toss the towel in just yet.
I can't say I see anyone bashing any regional.
What I'm saying is that it was damn smart for Bedford to position his company in a way that provided financing through regional partnerships while taking ownership of two mainline companies that have the ability to directly compete with his client partnerships. But, the risk in that is what happens when his mainline partnerships end because mainline doesn't like financing their competitor(s)?
Or at least that's what I'm talking about.
Thanks for sharing the link though Martin. It is a good analysis, and many more topics could be discussed that come from it. I merely picked one paragraph to focus on initially, if others wish to discuss other elements then so be it.
Don't toss the towel in just yet.
killbilly
Vocals, Lyrics, Triangle, Washboard, Kittens
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
Interesting and pretty well-written article. Three things stood out to me...
First:
That's insane. IND to SFO for $78.20 is insane. I know that I don't know anything about Revenue Management at an airline, and I know I don't see the "big picture" with regard to running an airline, but I just don't understand what scenario has to exist for that kind of math to make sense. Because I KNOW you're going to burn $78.20 worth of fuel before you even take off. I realize that might be a limited number of seats, but how many other seats do you have to sell to make up for that?
Second:
Specifically the bolded part, but isn't this an inaccurate representation of scope? I thought scope was a mainline vs. vendor relationship and not a union vs. non-union relationship. Unions don't have anything to do with scope in this context, correct?
Finally:
I'm floored that he didn't comment further on what he thought the next life cycle would look like. Multiple discussions on this website have led me to a similar conclusion, but I've no idea what it might "look" like after "this" particular cycle.
Interesting and pretty well-written article. Three things stood out to me...
First:
That's insane. IND to SFO for $78.20 is insane. I know that I don't know anything about Revenue Management at an airline, and I know I don't see the "big picture" with regard to running an airline, but I just don't understand what scenario has to exist for that kind of math to make sense. Because I KNOW you're going to burn $78.20 worth of fuel before you even take off. I realize that might be a limited number of seats, but how many other seats do you have to sell to make up for that?
Second:
Specifically the bolded part, but isn't this an inaccurate representation of scope? I thought scope was a mainline vs. vendor relationship and not a union vs. non-union relationship. Unions don't have anything to do with scope in this context, correct?
Finally:
I'm floored that he didn't comment further on what he thought the next life cycle would look like. Multiple discussions on this website have led me to a similar conclusion, but I've no idea what it might "look" like after "this" particular cycle.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
Perhaps Abbey isn't really that great of a consultant?
The issue with pricing is simple, at least in the following example.
If you can fly cheaper than you can drive to a destination, something in the pricing equation is broken. $80 for IND.ORD.SFO You'd get to Kansas City before having to spend another $80 for gas to get you to Denver, and then another $80 to get you over the hills, and perhaps another $40 to get you to SFO.
If Chris_Ford was still around, he'd get all emotional about us questioning the pricing systems utilized. That said, those of you working under the US Airways brand, seems he is in yield management over there now.
Perhaps Abbey isn't really that great of a consultant?
The issue with pricing is simple, at least in the following example.
If you can fly cheaper than you can drive to a destination, something in the pricing equation is broken. $80 for IND.ORD.SFO You'd get to Kansas City before having to spend another $80 for gas to get you to Denver, and then another $80 to get you over the hills, and perhaps another $40 to get you to SFO.
If Chris_Ford was still around, he'd get all emotional about us questioning the pricing systems utilized. That said, those of you working under the US Airways brand, seems he is in yield management over there now.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
If you replace the non-union statement with "regional airline partner", it's good.
I'd say he's pretty nuts on with the lay of the land today. What's the landscape look like in 10 years?
I'd say it depends on a couple things.
First, and most importantly, is the success of Bedford's transition from contractor to mainline lift. Love him or loathe him, he successfully leveraged the 50 seater bubble in a disciplined manner to ultimately reach his strategic goal of having a mainly unencumbered fleet that can operate at mainline economics. With all the flying scoped into one contract with the CBA there, it could reset alot of the industry "standards" in regards to business models and what "successful" airlines look like.
If he fails, I see the shift from cost-plus regionals to yield flying. The return of Tprops in the 30 seat range, as well as the Big Tprops taking over some 50 seater routes. This will subvert the scope, by putting the number of seats on the route the mainline wants, and by not giving passengers a choice, they'll fly them. You can already see this trend from the deployment of the Q in EWR.
The overall number of aircraft at regionals won't change, but the type of aircraft will cycle from the 50 seaters to 30-74 seat tprops. This shift will occur whether BB is successful or not.
If you replace the non-union statement with "regional airline partner", it's good.
I'd say he's pretty nuts on with the lay of the land today. What's the landscape look like in 10 years?
I'd say it depends on a couple things.
First, and most importantly, is the success of Bedford's transition from contractor to mainline lift. Love him or loathe him, he successfully leveraged the 50 seater bubble in a disciplined manner to ultimately reach his strategic goal of having a mainly unencumbered fleet that can operate at mainline economics. With all the flying scoped into one contract with the CBA there, it could reset alot of the industry "standards" in regards to business models and what "successful" airlines look like.
If he fails, I see the shift from cost-plus regionals to yield flying. The return of Tprops in the 30 seat range, as well as the Big Tprops taking over some 50 seater routes. This will subvert the scope, by putting the number of seats on the route the mainline wants, and by not giving passengers a choice, they'll fly them. You can already see this trend from the deployment of the Q in EWR.
The overall number of aircraft at regionals won't change, but the type of aircraft will cycle from the 50 seaters to 30-74 seat tprops. This shift will occur whether BB is successful or not.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
Did Abbey make the non-union statement about scope? Thought that was from the author of the article.
My comment about Abbey was that he, as KLB indicated, certainly indicated the "end" of an era, but he failed to indicate what the next era would be.
Did Abbey make the non-union statement about scope? Thought that was from the author of the article.
My comment about Abbey was that he, as KLB indicated, certainly indicated the "end" of an era, but he failed to indicate what the next era would be.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
I, for some reason, forgot that he didn't write the article.
I, for some reason, forgot that he didn't write the article.
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
Apparently an ERJ190 is more efficient than a 717. Look for RAH to expand to other code shares with mainline. They see the future as regional providing domestic service with mainline doing int flying, looking at the trends, that's where we are going.
Apparently an ERJ190 is more efficient than a 717. Look for RAH to expand to other code shares with mainline. They see the future as regional providing domestic service with mainline doing int flying, looking at the trends, that's where we are going.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
Re: The hand that feeds has been bit
If that turns out to be true, I think I might die a little inside.
If that turns out to be true, I think I might die a little inside.
USMCmech
Well-Known Member
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
It should be clear by now that the airline biz is going through another major shift. Probably the biggest since 1978. The old model of "comuter" turboprop airline feeding the "legacy" jets is going to be a much smaller fraction of the industry.
The "mega regionals" (eagle, RAH, ect) are the new B scale, and many pilots will spend a large portion of their careers there. The RJ tail will start waging the mainline dog to a greater degree.
The Regional vs Mainline line has been blurred almost completely as far as pilots are concerned. You're flying a jet from a hub to an outstation and back, it's the exact same job regardless of how many seats are behind you.
Exactly how all this will shake out I have no idea, and neither does anyone else.
It should be clear by now that the airline biz is going through another major shift. Probably the biggest since 1978. The old model of "comuter" turboprop airline feeding the "legacy" jets is going to be a much smaller fraction of the industry.
The "mega regionals" (eagle, RAH, ect) are the new B scale, and many pilots will spend a large portion of their careers there. The RJ tail will start waging the mainline dog to a greater degree.
The Regional vs Mainline line has been blurred almost completely as far as pilots are concerned. You're flying a jet from a hub to an outstation and back, it's the exact same job regardless of how many seats are behind you.
Exactly how all this will shake out I have no idea, and neither does anyone else.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
Re: Interesting article on the changing regional landscape..
Mainline airlines buy the regionals, operate the RJs themselves and put all pilots on one seniority list? Yeah, sorry.....I'm awake now.
Mainline airlines buy the regionals, operate the RJs themselves and put all pilots on one seniority list? Yeah, sorry.....I'm awake now.
