Would you make this flight in a C172...

PGT

PGT

Well-Known Member
A JCer is telling me this flight is safe in a C172...I say no.


TAF:
KDSM 201606Z 2016/2112 18015G22KT P6SM BKN090
FM210300 16012KT P6SM VCSH OVC040
FM210700 15009KT P6SM BKN035

Halfway point:
KCID 201420Z 2014/2112 14010KT 3SM BR SCT090
FM201500 14012KT 5SM BR BKN090
FM201700 14012G20KT P6SM BKN120
FM210000 15012KT P6SM VCSH OVC060
FM210600 14008KT 6SM BR VCSH OVC035
TEMPO 2106/2109 5SM -RA BR

KORD 201126Z 2012/2118 VRB03KT P6SM FEW020
FM201500 11007KT P6SM SCT200
FM201900 13007KT P6SM BKN080 BKN200
FM202200 11008KT P6SM BKN080 BKN200
FM210200 14006KT P6SM BKN060 OVC100
FM211500 18012KT P6SM BKN050

Departing Chicago at 6-7PM, arrive in DSM at 9-10PM

Radar:
Moving SE
clipboard01qgm.jpg
 
I personally wouldn't see anything wrong with making the flight.. other than the wind I don't see anything worth fretting over. Staying out of the clouds this time a year should be a given.
 
Looking the TAF it seems fine. why would you not do it.....?

winds aloft look fine:

DSM 1926 1820+02 2217-05 2729-09 2937-20 3048-31 305946 306655 306763
MCW 1820 2228+00 2325-06 2523-11 2940-21 2953-32 296247 297756 297162
JOT 1005 3414-03 3314-07 3421-12 3139-23 3158-34 317247 317856 316661

Cloud cover doesn't look like an issue. Freezing Level looks fine.....????
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PGT said:
Clouds at 6,000.

A C172 cruises at 5-7,000. Night, can't see the clouds.
Click to expand...

Clouds at 6000.....Fly VFR.......

The C172 will only cruise at 6000 if you take it up that high. Stay below the clouds and if you start to lose sight of the lights then go lower. No one says you have to fly that high.

Clouds at 6000 fly at a lower altitude, not too hard....

If PIC doesn't feel safe then he/she shouldn't.
 
JEP said:
Clouds at 6000.....Fly VFR.......

The C172 will only cruise at 6000 if you take it up that high. Stay below the clouds and if you start to lose sight of the lights then go lower. No one says you have to fly that high.

Clouds at 6000 fly at a lower altitude, not too hard....

If PIC doesn't feel safe then he/she shouldn't.
Click to expand...

he has an IR too, file for four, if they ask you to go to 6 say unable...
 
JEP said:
Clouds at 6000.....Fly VFR.......

The C172 will only cruise at 6000 if you take it up that high. Stay below the clouds and if you start to lose sight of the lights then go lower. No one says you have to fly that high.

Clouds at 6000 fly at a lower altitude, not too hard....

If PIC doesn't feel safe then he/she shouldn't.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat: I'd do it in a heartbeat. That said, do what makes you comfortable.
 
Why would you need to see the clouds? Unless not instument rated? Is there no cultural lighting below the cloud deck (towns, etc) to help see them if you wanted to, and if you needed to stay VMC above broken decks?

My point being, single-engine IFR/IMC isn't an emergency. It can be done....even at night. It's not like the boogey man comes out then. I flew this way for years in cargo. In this case (assuming instrument rated and equipped?), you can cruise above the ceiling, and descend through it when you need to......night is easier to see if there's any convective activity....not that the TAF is calling for any, just seems like cloud. If not instrument rated, you just have to be more judicious about what's where......can use things like moon illum to help you, etc. The TAF also seems pretty steady....no rapidly changing conditions forecasted. But have a hip-pocket plan just in case, always.

But in the end, if you don't personally feel comfortable about it; then don't go. That's a personal decision based on experience, equipment, ratings, and comfort level.
 
I wouldnt do it personally. The overcast 6000 VCSH would have me a bit worried if the temps at altitude were below freezing, which according to the METAR at ORD of 02/-8 is very likely. Night, low ceiling, rain with low temps in the area...Id scrub the flight myself. I am not IR rated either. It would just be below my personal mins for a pleasure flight.
 
Matt13C said:
I wouldnt do it personally. The overcast 6000 VCSH would have me a bit worried if the temps at altitude were below freezing, which according to the METAR at ORD of 02/-8 is very likely. Night, low ceiling, rain with low temps in the area...Id scrub the flight myself. I am not IR rated either. It would just be below my personal mins for a pleasure flight.
Click to expand...

Yep exactly the reason I don't think it's safe. The clouds will be at 0, or just below, ideal for freezing.
Clouds at/below freezing level, night, NO ice protection, 2.5 hour flight, possibility of rain....the stack of cards is starting to add up.



JEP said:
mea = ifr
Click to expand...

Sure I don't have a problem flying at 2-3,000...just not in unfamiliar territory, at night, for 100-150 nm (half the trip length)
 
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