FlySooner9
Well-Known Member
Hey guys, not sure if anyone has noticed but XJT's stock is down to 55cents and has been on a steady decline as of late. Out of curiosity just how low can that price go before something happens?
XJT stock price
- Thread starter FlySooner9
- Start date
The Gardener
Terrafirma Phobic
So that would leave us with a tough decision at lunch. A couple of tacos or 14 shares of xjt.
I bought some Northwest and United stock just after Sept. 11. I though, hey, a couple hundred bucks, this will either go really well, or really bad, but it is worth a shot. The last time it still showed up in my portfolio it would cost me more to sell it in commission than to keep it. It eventually got filed away in the chapter 11 filling cabinet...
I bought some Northwest and United stock just after Sept. 11. I though, hey, a couple hundred bucks, this will either go really well, or really bad, but it is worth a shot. The last time it still showed up in my portfolio it would cost me more to sell it in commission than to keep it. It eventually got filed away in the chapter 11 filling cabinet...
typhoonpilot
Well-Known Member
Funny thing about trying to catch a falling knife is that sometimes it will cut you.
There is little to no upside to airline stocks in the near future. The only thing that will make the stock go up is a buyout offer or some major move lower in the price of oil.
Typhoonpilot
There is little to no upside to airline stocks in the near future. The only thing that will make the stock go up is a buyout offer or some major move lower in the price of oil.
Typhoonpilot
CaptainChris87
New Member
"How low can that go until something happens?" What do you mean????????....All the stock price is saying what the market thinks of it.... if you watch day-to -day patterns if at the end of the day it goes down or up drastically it means probably some news leaked out. and think about it in order for this to go back up to $1.00 a share you need a 90% gain...that must be one heck of a news..PR. And with todays trends, same with shareholders they are looking for under-bidding not paying at book value. Example: Countrywide with a BV of 27 a share, Bear Stearns with a BV of 60+ a share...
Well the rule is Since they are listed on an exchange for example NASDAQ, NYSE (their on NYSE) They have to maintain a value of over $1.00 a share (common) for 30 trading days or they get de-listed. And when that happens expect her to take a huge dump (price) As a large number of hedge funds and insitutions cannot hold shares on OTC (Over the counter markets). So expect a sell-off.
Now as I predictd in the past Skywest came out with a bid then it rose to over 100% to 3+ a share, now back to 55 cents... If you had a margin account with Fiedelty, Scottrade, or Etrade you may WANT TO LOOK INTO SHORTING THIS STOCK....(im no there to offer investment advice and it is your money your are liabile for your investment desicions). Another tip is too look at the Short Interest of XJT if its over 20% it means it may continue to go down and the sentiment is for them not to cover.
Sometimes the market tends to overreact to things, now if you had a keen eye and a good sense of DD (due DiligencE) you can identify them and make bank and beat the market.
so far does not seem they will enter a Chapter 11 re-org.....If they do furlough they are doing it to cut costs and may help maintain sharheolder value by reducing expenses.
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
I'm not a stock guru or anything but why would you consider shorting XJT? It doesn't really have a lot of room to go down.
On a side note, I noticed the market value of US Air is something like $225 million. If my understanding of the markets is correct, does that mean if you had $225 million you could buy up all the stock and own the company? And they have $2+ billion in the bank (or did prior to the end of this year...haha). Anyway why not buy the company, take it private, take your money back out and some, and then sell it's assets off piece by piece?
On a side note, I noticed the market value of US Air is something like $225 million. If my understanding of the markets is correct, does that mean if you had $225 million you could buy up all the stock and own the company? And they have $2+ billion in the bank (or did prior to the end of this year...haha). Anyway why not buy the company, take it private, take your money back out and some, and then sell it's assets off piece by piece?
DV8Pilot
DPE
granlistillo
Well-Known Member
You also buy a company's liabilities as well. I havent looked at any airlines balance sheet in a long time so i am just guessing, but very rarely will a company trade at less than their cash holdings unless there are some major liabilities. Last time I dabbled in airline stocks was frontier and did pretty well. As a rule, avoid airline stocks like the plague.
granlistillo
Well-Known Member
Like any short position, it can do down 100% and no more. In other words you short 100k and it goes TU, you profit 100k. Doesnt matter what the stock price is. If you covered after it went down 50% you would profit 50K.
Of course there is no theoretical limit to your loss if it goes up. No way I would do a naked short at these levels, cause if the oil price drops, or a buyout happened, you could take a real shellacking.
IrishSheepdog
Sitting in the median
I wouldn't be surprised if our management buys all the stock and takes the company private. Especially with the massive growth in our charter division. It would give management more control over the direction of the company, without having hedge fund managers breathing down our necks.
WestIndian425
Well-Known Member
As Southernjets pilot "Agent Smith" would say, friends don't let friends buy airline stock.
I've heard that speculation going on since the major shareholders were putting pressure to just drop branded altogether, renegotiate with CAL, and get more CPAs. I thought it would have happened by now.
meritflyer
Well-Known Member
They'd have a helluva time buying for any less than $3.50 a share without any anit-trust suits.
CaptainChris87
New Member
I said it sbecause if they dot maintian a valu eof 1.00 or mroe for common stock, they will be de-listed by the NYSE. When that happens a lot of the big funds cannot hold common stock on th eOTC Over the coutner markets, so there will be a sell off.
mikecweb
Well-Known Member
Please elaborate.
CaptainChris87
New Member
The anti-trust act mainly deals with the potential for beating off compeition thus under Section 2 of the Sherman Anti- trust act condemns "every perons who shall monopolize or attempt to monopolize:. . The courts do something which is called the "market share test". if the market share is considerede to be 70 percent or more then ti is considered monopoloy power. I do not think if skywest Bid for XJT it would be considered a monopoly, due to the market size and other large reigonals like Pinnacle/Colgan, Americna Eagle, Mesa (who have flights from China). Especially since its the Rigonal airline market. Say at a small town theres one mom and pop gorcery store, only one. Now he will not be considered a monopolist if he is th eonly one and has the whoel towns market. Same with the Reigonal concept they fly into small er towns with little or no service.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
Uh, I'm not following here, merit.
I don't see how a stock buyback to take a company private would be forming a monopoly, engaging in price fixing or reducing competition. XJT doesn't own any other companies, and pretty much every market they go into to with their regional and branded operations has healthy competition already. There's plenty of competition for the charter biz, so I really don't see how anti-trust would apply in this case.
wheelsup
Well-Known Member
If I was an XJT shareholder I'd be pretty pissed that management rejected a $3.50/share buyout but then turned around and bought my shares at $0.50. I'd be so pissed in fact, I'd sue. Imagine if you owned a million shares, that's a lot of cashola down the drain just because management wanted to protect an ego.
Nick
Well-Known Member
Protecting Ego or Employees
The company offering the buyout was going to immediately layoff 1/3 of ExpressJet pilots and supposedly offer them preferential interviews to start over at their company, on first year everything. That's almost like Frank Lorenzo stuff.
Perhaps the XJT MEC and the company rejecting the buyout offer under the terms that were presented was actually an example of a company putting employees before the shareholders.
I'm not sure ExpressJet was as concerned about protecting an ego as it was protecting employees.
The company offering the buyout was going to immediately layoff 1/3 of ExpressJet pilots and supposedly offer them preferential interviews to start over at their company, on first year everything. That's almost like Frank Lorenzo stuff.
Perhaps the XJT MEC and the company rejecting the buyout offer under the terms that were presented was actually an example of a company putting employees before the shareholders.
mikecweb
Well-Known Member
Yeah I'm right there with you. How is management buying the shares of the company have anything to do with this?
CaptainChris87
New Member
The thing with buying BK stocks is that after a CH.11 the prefered shares, bondholders,debt holders, employees get paid before common shares. And in most Ch.11 cases they get wiped out. Even if they survive after re-emergence from BK (if they even do) the company ususally issues BRAND NEW shares rendering old ones worthless..
There are exceptions especially when assets exceed liabilities the company may throw the shareholders a bone, which in the case of Calpine, Bally's, and Mirant have. Their old shares were converted to X ammount of new one and they were given warrents (or options in the new company. Also if an EQUITY COMMITTEE is formed by shareholders it is a good sign. with the exception of Enron and Worlcom of course.
Now in CH. 7 which is a complete liquidation of a ocmpany almost always sharheolders may recieve something if there is something left.
CaptainChris87
New Member
Managment will not buy their own company shares for cheap. If that is even possible maybe a private equity firm could be doin that...but if someone purchases a company stock worth over 5% they are considered part owners already.And something would need to be filed with the SEC. I also think that not many want to purchase or invest in airline stocks as of now.