Where are the airline pilots going to come from?

He just can't figure out how someone could possibly not want to be a regional pilot. Hey, nimrod, pay more.
The money doesn't excite me (at the moment—ask me again five years from now)...but I still am enthused about the business.

Oh, this is scary:
Then we send them on to a basic instrument proficiency checkout in an Elite PCATD. Again, it's shocking how many people can't scan a basic six-pack. Is it because Cessnas today have G-1000's? I actually interviewed one candidate who got so slow on an ILS that he stalled and went out of control. He probably would have gotten lost in the holding pattern, except he never got there because he turned the wrong way when I told him to go directly to the VOR. He couldn't read the HSI well enough to know whether he was TO or FROM.
I think you will find that has more to do with a lack of basic flying proficiency/lack of focus on the fundamentals, and can easily be isolated from whatever equipment you learned on...
 
From the article comments (sums it pretty well!):
"It's the FAA, it's idiot management and their golden parachutes, it's the TSA. I enjoy flying, been doing it for 34 years, 16 with an airline. Yet our POI has flown nothing bigger than a Cessna 310 and has no clue what I do for a living. I work 4 out of 7 days because our idiot in charge of scheduling thinks 8 is greater than 12 and actually argued about that with me in front of a Federal Mediator during contract negotiations. Everytime I try and get to my office I have to be strip searched in front of the very people I'm supposed to command respect from. Why should a young person starting a career come here? In my grandfather's day (started with Pitcairn in 1928), Captains were god. If they want more fuel or had a concern about the weather, they were listened to. Now, I spend most of my time answering second guess from morons who have half the facts and much more time than I did to make a decision. The writer mentions the 1500 hour rule, a brillant idea from Congress, who knows jack about aviation. Instead why didn't they bring up the Colgan POI who had been relieved of his position for pointing out how bad Colgan's training was -- BEFORE the crash? So much for oversight. Look at what Wolf did to USAir, look at the recent mergers and backruptcy and how they turned out for the employees. And, of course, the TSA confiscates cupcakes in dreams of keeping us safe. I can't wait to get out and go fly my warbird at my local grass strip."
 
We can't quite put our fingers on what's occurring in the industry right now. I've talked to my counterparts at other regional airlines and they all are seeing the same thing. For lack of a better description, a large percentage of newly hired airline pilots just aren't as excited about their career prospects as they used to be.
During our last hiring boom in 2007 and 2008, it seemed as if we had people climbing all over each other just to get an interview. Now, we'll frequently call 10 for an interview and only five will show up. I don't know if other airlines are hiring them before we can interview them or what, but it just seems the level of interest in our industry isn't there.

"Well duh" came to mind.
I stopped reading.
 
I jumpseated a delta 75 two days ago, FO says to me "I just don't know why anyone young wants this job". Captain starts talking about how his son has all his licenses, but he told him to try for an airport manager job instead.
 
I think the comments are as enlightening as the article.

From what I can see, flying a RJ for Eagle is the same job as flying a 737 for Southwest. The difference is the paycheck, and a number of other factors. One can't get half the people to actually show up for its interview, and the other is flooded with applicants.
 
article said:
(2) The industry has driven the good people away: The last four years have not been kind to the airline industry.

Four years?? It's been a lost decade kid. What he meant to say was "You know I got hired 7 years ago and made captain pretty quick, I'm fairly happy but I've noticed for the last 4 years everyone I fly with (read: FO's) has become more and more unhappy. By the way, an FO who left for corporate asked me yesterday if I remembered what a pension was, does anyone know? Email me privately if you could please, I'm lost and just old enough not to know I can google it. When I don't know everything I feel like less of a pilot, and ego is everything for me."

I'm kind of speculating here because I've had the chance to upgrade for a while, and am back to making first year CA pay on the Saab (from 3 years ago though... eh) being an FO and not doing jack. It seems like the guys I talk to are pissed because they still haven't upgraded in 4-6 years time and any pay raise is nearly meaningless compared to the almighty TPIC and the 40% payraise that comes with it.


article said:
(3) The upcoming 1500-hour / ATP minimum requirement for all airline pilots might be scaring away good people. The ATP rule won't go into effect until 2013, so this is a perfect time to get an airline job. In two years of flying 85 hours a month, it'll be easy to beef up the logbook. This may be the last time in history that a guy with less than 1000 hours has a shot at an airline career. But I'm concerned that some pilots have only heard part of the story and have given up, thinking the rule is already in effect.

What he meant to say was "I also believe in the pilot shortage, unicorns, and that I'll be at a major in 3-4 years even though it's been seven for me. Luckily though, Maria in planning makes my life so nice thanks to being a checkairmen and I never have to deal with scheduling, so I suppose as a checkairmen who spends a couple months each year at the training center and are home every night that- I'm sorry I lost my place talking, I just like hearing myself. God I've got it good."


(4) Now that we're all wired and connected to the cloud, we just process information differently: My company is taking a hard look at our training procedures to see if we can present the information in a way that's more exciting for tech-savvy pilots. Unfortunately, many regional airlines see their training departments as expenses rather than investments, so there's not exactly an open checkbook for new training initiatives.



What he meant to say is, "God I'm pissed I might have to go back to being a real pilot and flying the line. I've become fat and happy sitting in the training department and doing IOE for a bunch of wide eyed FO's who think I know everything... and I do! These "Technologies", whatever those are, are gonna kill my lifestyle. Oh well I'll get in a class somewhere at a major, I'll have to call Todd and see who is hiring these days."


(5) Economic hard times have made it difficult for instrument pilots to stay proficient if they're paying for their time themselves. I'll be honest; I don't know if I could have afforded to get all my ratings in today's fuel environment. I paid between $50 and $85 an hour to rent most of my training planes, and I struggled to do that. That was when avgas was about $1.50 a gallon. Throw in reduced hours at work or downright unemployment, and staying proficient takes a back seat. We're seeing a lot of people coming in the door who haven't touched an airplane for three years!

"I trained and went to flight school from the years of 97-01, I can't remember exactly, and when 9/11 happened I still had a good CFI job living in the same town as my folks and my wife (at the time) made pretty good money so I didn't have it so bad."

(6) No one is getting commercial pilots' licenses any more. The FAA will tell you that the number of commercial pilots licenses issued has plummeted in the last three years. It is only a fraction of what it was four years ago. That means that the regionals are going to be competing for a smaller and smaller pool of pilots. When that happens, the quality of the candidate pool remaining quickly drops.
"I'm oblivious to the fact there are nearly 20,000 pilots furloughed or working at the regional level who can either make ok money doing something that keeps them home every night(and will come back when the industry doesn't blow), or who will leave their regional in a heartbeat at the outstation. Luckily, I've always been able to fly for a living and I'll be able to get picked up right at the hiring "boom" for retirements at mainline so I'll be able to secrete myself back into the training department at my next airline and I can tell them how dumb they were for not getting to the airlines 2 years ago when I did. God I'm smart. I hope those 2 extra years of not flying and being home every night with your family and making a descent wage were worth it because I'll get in the Training department again, nah nah nah nah nah. Wait, they are gonna do it all online now??? WTH! Oh well I'll just stay at my regional and keep flying these new pilots I hate so much on IOE. What do you mean they are getting rid of the CRJ? Dammit!"
 
Well, I think this article is kind of general. How can they say that hardly anyone is applying and interviewing? Look at the jobs available section where airline jobs are posted. Each one has about 50 pages of people asking about minimums, interview experiences, being hired. Doesn't even look like the "crappy airlines" are short on resumes... just saying.
 
The author is leaving out:

a) Compensation:
How ridiculous is it that regionals are hinting at pay cuts? "Hey, Tony Bag O' Donuts, go spend $100,000 on your ratings and certificates, we'll give you a job at $18,000, but whoops, we want a bigger bonus and didn't quite do due diligence with a sensible business plan, so we'll be needing some of that money back. Crap, why are guys lining up, clawing themselves because we announced that our hiring window is open?"

b) Professional respect:
A lot of airlines treat their employees like kindergarteners. A lot of airline pilots act like kindergarteners too but, that's another discussion to be had! :) If I have to bring a note from my doctor and talk to the chief pilot because I got sick in December, I find that goofy. If you get a common cold, I need to try to get an appointment, last minute, go into the office and potentially infect more people only to have the doctor say "Yup, you've got a common cold. Plenty of fluids, you'll be better in a week!"

I'd suggest that he goes to play "line pilot only" for a while and just observe. No line check airman meetings with the company, no special trip assignments, just live eat and sleep like a regular line pilot and then he may understand the pressures that his co-workers are experiencing.
 
I'd suggest that he goes to play "line pilot only" for a while and just observe. No line check airman meetings with the company, no special trip assignments, just live eat and sleep like a regular line pilot and then he may understand the pressures that his co-workers are experiencing.
"[Air Carrier] is a great place to work, did you know? Bid a month of reserve and see for yourself. Thank you, [Air Carrier]!"
 
I don't fly at a 121 airline, but if this guy can't figure out the reason people like me (3000+TT, 135 current, etc) aren't even applying at the regionals, I can't help him. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
 
I don't fly at a 121 airline, but if this guy can't figure out the reason people like me (3000+TT, 135 current, etc) aren't even applying at the regionals, I can't help him. There are none so blind as those who will not see.
But I remember not long ago on here the general agreement was that over the long run 121 lead to a better life style.
 
But I remember not long ago on here the general agreement was that over the long run 121 lead to a better life style.
What's your definition of life style? Being home every night but maybe 6 and being on a beeper every day, or being home 16 days a month but time away from base at 280 hours (factor no commuting)?

Let's face it, the real job everyone wants is the part 91 owner who flies 2x a year and pays you six figures to sit on your butt at home waiting for him to email you he wants to go out next week to FL to see the grandkids.
 
Let's face it, the real job everyone wants is the part 91 owner who flies 2x a year and pays you six figures to sit on your butt at home waiting for him to email you he wants to go out next week to FL to see the grandkids.

Would LOVE that job!
 
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