What would YOU do?

Ian_J

Ian_J

Hubschrauber Flieger
Staff member
You're a 55 hour private pilot working on an instrument rating. You decide to exercise your PPL privileges and take a friend on a XC from Rochester to Elmira.

Flight is to be from 2000 - 2200 zulu.

Weather is below. Would you go?

KROC 251954Z 25017G21KT 7SM FEW060 SCT250 31/13 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP196 T03110133
KROC 251738Z 251818 25014G18KT P6SM SCT050 SCT250
FM2200 26012KT P6SM VCSH SCT050CB SCT090 BKN250
FM0000 31007KT P6SM SCT020 BKN040
FM0700 29005KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050 BKN080
FM1200 31005KT P6SM SCT050 SCT080 BKN250 FM1500 31005KT P6SM BKN250

KELM 251953Z AUTO 31005KT 9SM CLR 28/15 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP201 T02830150 TSNO
KELM 251728Z 251818 25008KT P6SM SCT050CB
FM0400 VRB03KT P6SM SCT025 BKN100 TEMPO 0812 3SM BR
FM1400 32010KT P6SM SCT050 BKN200

NY LOLO...SCT030 BKN CI. 20Z SCT-BKN030-050 LYRD TO FL250. WDLY SCT - TSRA. CB TOP FL360. 00Z SCT150. OTLK...VFR.WRN/CNTRL NY...BKN030-050 LYRD TO FL250. WDLY SCT -TSRA..POSSSEV. CB TOP FL370. 05Z SCT-BKN040 BKN120. OTLK...VFR.LONG ISLAND-SERN INTR...SKC. OCNL SCT050. OTLK...VFR.RMNDR NY...BKN050-060 TOP 080. WDLY SCT -TSRA. CB TOP FL350. BECMG 0406 SKC. OTLK...VFR.

The storms in the radar are moving eastbound and will be clear of Elmira well before you get there.
 
During daylight hours it doesn't seem to be too bad. At night I wouldn't be so happy with it. The other thing would be getting back to ROC if those storms move off the lake.
 
I would do the trip...

With that said, I'd have a backup plan just in case the wx turns out to be worse than forecast.

I've had forecasts that called for the end of the world, but in actuality turned out be isolated thunderstorms. Then again, it's also gone the other way.
 
Based simply On what I know (me only has 7 hours, lol, don't flame) I would go. I personally would pack an overnight bag if those storms did move off the lakes.
 
Well, considering there are supposed to be storms all through the evening in the area, I don't know :p

I don't think the friend would enjoy the ride, it seems a bit bumpy up there
 
If we look past the almost state wide convective sigment and the convective outlook, the first thing that caught my eye were the winds at Rochester. As a new (55hr inexperienced pilot) that would be my first sanity check. Not sure what orientation the runways are there but I would at least be doing the double check on the X-Wind limits for what ever plane you plan to fly. Given that your comfortable with those two situations that next thing I would wanna be comfortable with are flying VFR dodging T-Storm Cells randomly appearing. Me personally.., with 55 hrs under your belt, if it were me, I'd say what you need to ask is, how much "fun" do you want to have. Does this flight mean so much to you and your friend, that your willing to risk being put into a bad situation. Seems to me I'd MUCH rather go flying on a nice clear day where my biggest decision is gonna be what I'm gonna put on my hundred dollar burger when I get to Elmira! Just my 2 pennies
 
All good points. I'll wait a little bit to give the background behind this post. But so you know, the runway in use at ROC is 25 - perfectly aligned with the wind.
 
SeatClutcher said:
All good points. I'll wait a little bit to give the background behind this post. But so you know, the runway in use at ROC is 25 - perfectly aligned with the wind.
Click to expand...

Crap! I'm using Kristen's computer and was accidentally logged in as her. The above post is mine.
 
I'm pretty certain now that I wouldn't make the flight. Tomorrow will have some much nicer weather :>

Especially because I've heard random thunder for the last hour or so, and I wouldn't want to risk running into thing as the light dims out. It's hard enough to visually see storms in New York as it is, with the constant overcast everything often just looks 'grey'.

And as I said before, even if there aren't any T-storms popping up on you, I wouldn't enjoy the ride in such unstable air. So, why bother.
 
This is my first post so please bear with me. I am a pilot. An important aspect of getting a PPL is exercise of good judgment. Anybody can takeoff and land, but experience flying in both good weather and bad is priceless. 55 hours is not much. Unless it was something urgent, I probably would not go. However, if a number of those 55 hours were in bad weather, I would consider going. I'd also ask the friend how he felt about it. If he could also fly, then you'd have two pilots to help each other out.
 
Princess Pilot said:
This is my first post so please bear with me. I am a pilot. An important aspect of getting a PPL is exercise of good judgment. Anybody can takeoff and land, but experience flying in both good weather and bad is priceless. 55 hours is not much. Unless it was something urgent, I probably would not go. However, if a number of those 55 hours were in bad weather, I would consider going. I'd also ask the friend how he felt about it. If he could also fly, then you'd have two pilots to help each other out.
Click to expand...

Don't ever let the urgency of a flight dictate whether you need to go or not. You're not flying organs, and you're not doing close air support. You're a private pilot with more limitations than freedoms when it comes down to it.

Pack of an overnight bag and see what you get.
 
I wouldn't fly. When I had 55hrs and my private, I was very judgemental about anything that made me feel a bit uncomfortable. Those winds right there, in a 172, wouldn't have made me comfortable at 55hrs. That alone would be one tick in the don't go catergory. Additionally, with the weather having a good chance of going south on me in flight, convective activity etc. There are just too many "what if's" in there that honestly, isn't worth risking. I'd wait for a better day.

This all being based on the 55hrs as a PPL. As a CFI, it would be a good flight to take a student on and I would go, good experience for the student.
 
I would only go if the person I were flying was OK with barell rolls and spins. Also, there would have to be a person in the back to whom the beer can on the dashboard could be floated to in the negative-g pushover.
 
SeatClutcher said:
All good points. I'll wait a little bit to give the background behind this post. But so you know, the runway in use at ROC is 25 - perfectly aligned with the wind.
Click to expand...


Uh doubt I'd make that trip. Never in that much of a hurry or need to be somewhere.

As for the background I hope nothing happened to the individual who may have took this trip and was training for his IR in the area where Army helo pilots live and instruct. ;)
 
Here's the background:

I trained this student for his PPL and am currently training him for his IR. He's also building that 50 hours of XC PIC for the rating. I knew about the flight - but it's not like he's required to tell me or anything.

Him being a new PPL, I did check the weather at work a few hour before the flight just to make sure it was all okay. It was nothing like the weather I posted above - no SIGMETS or anything, and light winds. Then I was off to meetings for the rest of the day.

When I got home after work, I got a frantic voicemail message from the front desk lady at the school demanding I call her because "what sense did my student have flying into thunderstorms!?"

Huh?

Instead of calling her, I got a weather briefing, and came up with the above info. I was initially concerned at the convective SIGMET that popped up, and then at the surface winds at ROC. A look at the radar helped ease the SIGMET fears (although pop-up storms still concerned me), and then I thought about how during PPL training I routinely took this student into very difficult winds - heck, he learned to land in 10-14 kt crosswinds before he learned regular landings. 20 kts right down the runway were well within his limits.

So my next worry concerned his decision making. Did he have "get-there-itus?" Did he have an exit plan? Did he consider the possibility of pop-up cells? Did I teach him enough to recognize and avoid them? I decided to call him - maybe he landed at Elmira by now. He picked right up, and I asked where he was.

Rochester. Why? He took off, took a look at the conditions, noticed deteriorating visibility along his route of flight, and decided to turn back. Decision-making, check.

I then called front desk lady to explain the situation and back my student. She immediately told me even though he was a PPL, maybe he shouldn't have solo privileges at the school. I explained, as patiently as I could, everything I just wrote above about his decision-making. Did she read the METAR, TAF, or look at any weather products? No. What did she look at? Radar. I told her I had printed out the radar report during the time period he was flying and was looking at while we were on the phone - could she please tell me what her concerns were? (Bear in mind folks, she is not a dispatcher, or a pilot... she just runs the school in lieu of the owner or the chief pilot - but that's a long, sordid story for another thread.) All she kept saying was he was planning on flying into thunderstorms and she doesn't trust him.

Why??!! I signed him off for his PPL. I trust him. I had the chief pilot fly him for a stage check prior to his PPL. He signed him off. The DE signed him off. Where is front desk lady in this chain?

Anywho - Monday when I go in I'm gathering the Chief and the assistant chief for a meeting (And its sad some random part-time instructor has to do this) for a talk about things. I already called the owner, who backs me, but who doesn't participate much in his business.
 
Ian J said:
Here's the background:

I trained this student for his PPL and am currently training him for his IR. He's also building that 50 hours of XC PIC for the rating. I knew about the flight - but it's not like he's required to tell me or anything. .....I decided to call him - maybe he landed at Elmira by now. He picked right up, and I asked where he was.

Rochester. Why? He took off, took a look at the conditions, noticed deteriorating visibility along his route of flight, and decided to turn back. Decision-making, check.

......
Click to expand...

Congrats, Ian. It looks like you taught your student well. Good Job to the both of you.
 
Thanks guys, but to clarify - this ain't about me. I'm really sort of whining about the flight school management and I'm not trying to give myself kudos or anything. Kudos to the student though - but really, some front desk lady shouldn't have been questioning him anyway.
 
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