What Do You Think?

[FutureLeader]

Hello JC,

I know it has been a while since I have posted anything or participated in any posts for that matter. I guess you can say I have been quietly involved in that I have read many of the posts, just have not responded to any of them. Nevertheless, I have a 3 part question that I would love to ask the members here at JC based on a very interesting conversion that I had with one of my classmates. We are in the Commercial Aviation Management program at The University of Western Ontario (http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/deansoffice/acs/aviation/) so we talk about these topics quite often. It should be very interesting to see everyone's opinion. I want to make it clear that I do not have any particular side in this. State what you think and why you think the way you do. Feel free to take some time and think about your answer before you post.

1.Do you think that with the increased automation that is now present in modern airlines that flying has become "too easy" in relation to flying aircraft built prior to the 1980s; before electronic flight systems, FMSs, FMCs and "modern" fly-by-wire technology was introduced? Do you think planes nowadays know too much? How much automation is too much automation?

*note that I say "modern", since older fly-by-wire systems existed on airliners such as the Concorde in the late 1960s, well before 1980.

2. With the introduction of highly efficient Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) and struggling legacy carriers (Using the USA as an example), that airlines wll have no choice but to lower fares and cut costs (including pilot salaries) permanently in order to compete well enough with the LCCs and to turn a profit?

3. Does anyone believe the prestige of being an airline pilot has faded; that the Glory Days of ex-vietnam pilots and their flying machines is over? Does anyone believe the industry has changed for the worst, from a pilot's perspective?


In asking all of that, I can now ask the BIG question.

In contrast with all that I have stated and based on your opinion and some facts, does anyone believe the Golden Era of highly paid airline pilots is fading and will eventually come to an end? Will we start to see a permanent reduction in pilot's salaries over our lifetime (relatively speaking since I am 19 years old)? Has the role of the airline pilot changed too much from what it was originally and do you think the airline pilot will ever disappear?

I know I gave everyone a lot to think about, but I just want to see if the members here at JC can provide some good analysis. All opinions are respected.

Cheers.

 

[kellwolf]

[ QUOTE ]
.Do you think that with the increased automation that is now present in modern airlines that flying has become "too easy" in relation to flying aircraft built prior to the 1980s; before electronic flight systems, FMSs, FMCs and "modern" fly-by-wire technology was introduced? Do you think planes nowadays know too much? How much automation is too much automation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's less about the airplane "knowing too much" and more about the pilot being out of the loop. If you have to initiate a go around because of some trees in your way, I don't think the plane should be able to say "no." In some cases, it may even raise the workload. It takes more to program a hold into the FMS than turn the dial on a VOR/LOC indicator. That's less time spent outside the window.

[ QUOTE ]
With the introduction of highly efficient Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) and struggling legacy carriers (Using the USA as an example), that airlines wll have no choice but to lower fares and cut costs (including pilot salaries) permanently in order to compete well enough with the LCCs and to turn a profit?

[/ QUOTE ]
It all depends on what pax are willing to pay. I personally think there should be two or more tiers of carriers out there. The LCCs that cater to the leisure and economy travellers, and the larger carriers that cater to business travellers and those willing to pay extra for more room/comfortable seats/meals/etc. Everyone trying to copy SWA will do nothing but saturate the market with LCCs, eventually pushing companies out. SWA started by serving the economy niche, and the legacies said it couldn't be done since business travel was the backbone. Maybe it can work in reverse.
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone believe the prestige of being an airline pilot has faded; that the Glory Days of ex-vietnam pilots and their flying machines is over? Does anyone believe the industry has changed for the worst, from a pilot's perspective?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the prestige of the pre-deruglation "Catch Me If You Can" days has been long gone for years. Now as far as has it changed for the worst from a pilot's perspective, can't make that call since I'm not there yet.
[ QUOTE ]
does anyone believe the Golden Era of highly paid airline pilots is fading and will eventually come to an end? Will we start to see a permanent reduction in pilot's salaries over our lifetime (relatively speaking since I am 19 years old)? Has the role of the airline pilot changed too much from what it was originally and do you think the airline pilot will ever disappear?

[/ QUOTE ]
Fading? I think it's gone. The media like to scream about pilots only working 5 days a week and making $300K a year. They don't tell you that that's only like 3 guys, and they have been at their airlines for several decades. Most of the guys that crack $200-250K are working their individual systems. I think we'll see a gradual rise of regional pay scales as pilots negotiate better contracts since they are no longer the "stepping stone to the majors" they once were. With regional pilots staying at that level longer, they'll need better pay and QOL. I think the major pay scales will probably come down to somewhere slightly above those regional scales. I'd like to see them a little higher to give the regionals guys (and me) something better to shoot for. SWA's main advantage is cost control, and they've been doing that for over 30 years. You can't take a bleeding legacy carrier (i.e. US Air) and suddenly say we're going to control costs. Ideally, they should hit the pilot salaries on a temporary basis, and as other costs get under control, negotiations upward can begin.