The largest 121 changes you see coming

[Tangodelta29]

Disclaimer:
This may thread may involve some questions/topics that have been beat dead (not on purpose though)

I'm pretty curious as to what most of you think will be the biggest changes to the 121 world in the next, uh say... 50 years or so. I don't mean exclusively pilot pay, and the "regional" situation, but they are fair game.

I know its pretty vague, but if you look at the way the industry is now, compare it to what you see in 10, 20, 30 years, anything you want.

What will be good? What will be bad? What will the largest changes be?



Open discussion.

 

[fly6785]

Layoffs?? Oh wait... That already happened... More layoffs???

 

[MQAAord]

I do not think it's possible to predict the state of the industry's future.

9/11 was a massive shaping force, and no one saw it coming. The key is to remain ever-vigilant, planning as best we can, but being able to adapt quickly to changing circumstances should/when they happen.

 

[bafanguy]

Layoffs?? Oh wait... That already happened... More layoffs???

Airlines and layoffs are interchangeable terms. No one entering the airline biz can expect anything else at some point in their career...maybe multiple "points".

You have been warned...plan accordingly. The past is prologue even 50 years from now. :bandit:

 

[ready2fly]

I predict ebb and flow at the regional and major level over the next decade to century.

I see some airlines growing while some shrink...and some may even go away. I see some merging. I see a lot of older pilots retiring and a lot of flight instructors getting hired by regionals.

I see pilots whining about salaries, rest rules, junior manning and schedules.

That's what I see for the Part 121 world.

The Great Carnac has spoken. And so it is written...and so it shall be.

 

[LOGS]

In the next 50 years? Well I see the pilot being cut out all together.

=J-

 

[ChrisH]

Airlines and layoffs are interchangeable terms. No one entering the airline biz can expect anything else at some point in their career...maybe multiple "points".

You have been warned...plan accordingly. The past is prologue even 50 years from now. :bandit:

I'm not even an airline pilot, but have been a CSR for the airlines for about three years. I've been laid of twice, and possibly about to face a third. It is not a stable industry to work in, that is for sure!

 

[Minuteman]

The development of North American high-speed rail will restore some legiimacy to the RLA's name.

 

[Tangodelta29]

In the next 50 years? Well I see the pilot being cut out all together.

=J-

I SURE hope not... because I'm gonna be pretty sad/mad/wasted a lot of money.

 

[minitour]

Layoffs?? Oh wait... That already happened... More layoffs???

We're pilots. "Layoff" is too informal for our fragile egos. It's "furlough".

furlough


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loʊ/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [fur-loh] –noun <table class="luna-Ent"> <tbody><tr> <td class="dnindex" width="35">1.</td> <td>Military. a vacation or leave of absence granted to an enlisted person.</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="luna-Ent"> <tbody><tr> <td class="dnindex" width="35">2.</td> <td>a usually temporary layoff from work: Many plant workers have been forced to go on furlough. </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table class="luna-Ent"><tbody><tr><td class="dnindex" width="35">3.</td> <td>a temporary leave of absence authorized for a prisoner from a penitentiary.</td></tr></tbody></table>
lay⋅off

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-mini

 

[PGT]

Some of today's regional carriers will grow becoming large while some majors will go away.

Decreased pay across all levels, probably PFJ type for FO's...this includes foreign pilots flying int'l routes.

I really think the good days are over. Why am I still pursuing a career and getting a degree in aviation? Not sure.

 

[Tangodelta29]

Some of today's regional carriers will grow becoming large while some majors will go away.

Decreased pay across all levels, probably PFJ type for FO's...this includes foreign pilots flying int'l routes.

I really think the good days are over. Why am I still pursuing a career and getting a degree in aviation? Not sure.

What does PFJ mean? :drool:

I'm with you on the school part, I just hope I get to use the education and training for a long time...

 

[mattp1803]

More and more RJ's. :banghead:

 

[PGT]

What does PFJ mean? :drool:

I'm with you on the school part, I just hope I get to use the education and training for a long time...

Pay for Job...buy RJ intro programs, pay for FO seat. I'm not 100% sure this will happen because there will be significantly less applicants in the near future simply because the industry sucks and people will realize that.
When there is a shortage of pilots management will beg congress to bring in foreign pilots/airlines. Look at the United/Air Lingus.

More and more RJ's. :banghead:

No, there is nothing 'RJ' about 100 seat jets. Notice how it started with the CRJ2, then 700/900 and now it's 100 seat EMB190's... The camel got it's nose in the tent, hard to stop now.

What's worst is that nobody is doing anything to stop it now. Yea we have ALPA but the RLA prohibits striking. There are other ways to get the point across but nothing is being done.

Yea I'm mad the generation before me completely f'ed up the industry I'm about to get into.

 

[mattp1803]

No, there is nothing 'RJ' about 100 seat jets. Notice how it started with the CRJ2, then 700/900 and now it's 100 seat EMB190's... The camel got it's nose in the tent, hard to stop now.

What's worst is that nobody is doing anything to stop it now. Yea we have ALPA but the RLA prohibits striking. There are other ways to get the point across but nothing is being done.

Yea I'm mad the generation before me completely f'ed up the industry I'm about to get into.

Couldn't agree with you more. I worked for Comair during the summers while I was in college. I was actually at the party fiasco Comair threw for the arrival of the CRJ900. Everyone there, which was a few hundred people, including many pilots went nuts in excitement when they rolled out the bran new 900. I however was thinking how they were getting gypped when I started comparing mainline DC-9 rates to the 900.

 

[MikeD]

Couldn't agree with you more. I worked for Comair during the summers while I was in college. I was actually at the party fiasco Comair threw for the arrival of the CRJ900. Everyone there, which was a few hundred people, including many pilots went nuts in excitement when they rolled out the bran new 900. I however was thinking how they were getting gypped when I started comparing mainline DC-9 rates to the 900.

The RJDC folks love them.....

 

[Bandit_Driver]

I don't see any meaningful changes coming. At most the feds will do some cosmetic changes to regs have a huge PR campaign about to make the flying public feel all warm and fuzzy. Just like people think they are protected by the TSA at airports...

 

[FlyChicaga]

OK, I'll bite. Here are some predictions (personal opinion only) of what we may see in the next 50 years. Remember, 50 years ago it was May 23, 1959. Imagine how much aviation has changed since that date. I expect to see just as much change.

In terms of the airlines, one of my biggest predictions is the return of supersonic international transport. It will be more reliable and less complex than the Concorde was, and it will revolutionize business travel across the globe. Expect only the most stable carriers to obtain those types of airplanes, and you'll see those airlines will be the ones to survive.

Regional airlines and major airlines will cease to exist as we know it today. The two will be merged, and expect to see pilot salaries and benefits find a happy medium. Gone are the days of huge salaries, but yet also gone are the days of bottom-of-the-barrel pay rates. Pilots will continue to be tasked with systems monitoring, since major enhancements in our ATC system will mean less workload and more automation.

Although regional airlines and major airlines will cease to exist, a wide range of aircraft will be used. Aircraft of 30 seats, 50 seats, 100 seats, and so forth will continue to carry passengers. Most will be jets.

Pilots will only be able to obtain a 10-hour minimum rest ruling, with a 14-hour max duty day. Some minor changes will occur in other rules of this sort. Not much else will change.

Training will move from the typical FBO, learn-as-you-go, to more of a European style. People will still learn to fly on the side, just not on their way to the remaining major airlines.

There will be a form of "open skies," but it will not hurt, nor help, the airlines very much. There will be much more regulation to restrict current pricing levels, thereby keeping us from driving down wages and benefits to unsafe (yes, unsafe) levels.

That's just my take.

 

[Tangodelta29]

OK, I'll bite. Here are some predictions (personal opinion only) of what we may see in the next 50 years. Remember, 50 years ago it was May 23, 1959. Imagine how much aviation has changed since that date. I expect to see just as much change.

In terms of the airlines, one of my biggest predictions is the return of supersonic international transport. It will be more reliable and less complex than the Concorde was, and it will revolutionize business travel across the globe. Expect only the most stable carriers to obtain those types of airplanes, and you'll see those airlines will be the ones to survive.

Regional airlines and major airlines will cease to exist as we know it today. The two will be merged, and expect to see pilot salaries and benefits find a happy medium. Gone are the days of huge salaries, but yet also gone are the days of bottom-of-the-barrel pay rates. Pilots will continue to be tasked with systems monitoring, since major enhancements in our ATC system will mean less workload and more automation.

Although regional airlines and major airlines will cease to exist, a wide range of aircraft will be used. Aircraft of 30 seats, 50 seats, 100 seats, and so forth will continue to carry passengers. Most will be jets.

Pilots will only be able to obtain a 10-hour minimum rest ruling, with a 14-hour max duty day. Some minor changes will occur in other rules of this sort. Not much else will change.

Training will move from the typical FBO, learn-as-you-go, to more of a European style. People will still learn to fly on the side, just not on their way to the remaining major airlines.

There will be a form of "open skies," but it will not hurt, nor help, the airlines very much. There will be much more regulation to restrict current pricing levels, thereby keeping us from driving down wages and benefits to unsafe (yes, unsafe) levels.

That's just my take.

Wow thanks! plenty of things to think about there...

 

[PGT]

Regional airlines and major airlines will cease to exist as we know it today. The two will be merged, and expect to see pilot salaries and benefits find a happy medium. Gone are the days of huge salaries, but yet also gone are the days of bottom-of-the-barrel pay rates. Pilots will continue to be tasked with systems monitoring, since major enhancements in our ATC system will mean less workload and more automation.

Happy medium compared to today would suck. Screw making 60-80k flying 100 people around after unloading 50k to get there.