Re: The guaraneteed interview, just Q, no controve
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This is a half truth, at best, according to the numbers. If the total enrollment is 300 (arbitrary figure) and 30 get a interview and a job then that would indicate a 10% success. What happened to the other 270? Comair/DCA can shoot you out of the saddle at any point along the way and therein lies the problem.
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It feels to me that you are looking for guarantees. Of course you can show me a flight school where say 50% of the total enrollment graduates. Or if not 50% than what is the % that one would consider acceptable?
For comparison, a typical university in the USA has a 60% average graduation rate. This rate is not to be confused with the “success rate” which means the amount of people get a job at the end. The number is further decreased by those who don’t want to work in the field, but simply want to have a degree. Taking those into account, I would say it is fair to guesstimate the success rate down to 50%. Probably I was still a bit optimistic. Of course such a success rate is possible because of well standardized prescreening methods like GMAT which will make it or break it for a BBA holder to get into a good MBA program. So what would be the number without prescreening? I have no clue but definitely lower.
So lets take a look at aviation, where due to the nature of the business, at most places there is no prescreening. Some schools like FSI or MESA prescreen but I have yet to hear about an FBO who does. DCA doesn’t either. It would also be very hard to do so as ones ability to learn to fly is hard to measure by regular standards. If one can’t handle it, it only becomes apparent after one has flown with several instructors and is well over the average hours. Unfortunatelly you have to to try to find out. There are no indicators that would ensure failure or success. Just because one was poor in high school does not meant he will be a bad pilot, and vice versa.
So without prescreening just about everyone who wakes up one day with the dream of becoming a pilot can start flight training somewhere. And they do too as attrition in flight training is muchos higher than in a normal university.
Just for the sake of the numbers:
It takes you an average of 250-350 total training hours to finish from zero to MEI at most places. The low would be part 141 and the high would be part 61 due to the higher FAA requirements. Now take into account that an average CFI needs about 1200-1500 dual given to get into a position where he will become interesting for a regional or a part 135 operator.
Where does that leave us? To me this tells that approximately every CFI needs to finish a minimum of 4 to 5 students from zero to MEI. Granted you also do other things like flight reviews, proficiency checks, maintenance flights but those don't account for the majority of the hours for a typical CFI even if he is working at an FBO. You also give instruction for people who do not want to instruct for time building or simply don’t want to go to the airlines. So let say (and this would depend on the specific school) you need about 1000TT dual given from those who train to be a CFI and the rest comes from other flights. You still need to finish 3-4 guys from zero all the way up. That right there is 66%-75% attrition. So that is 25%-33% graduation rate. I really have no clue how to figure out the average success rate for an average CFI in getting a job but it has to decrease the graduation rate well below 25% (especially nowadays) IMO. May be 15% or 20%? I have no clue but whatever it is, it won’t be 50% that is for sure.
If there would not be any significant attrition than we would see the CFI population double/triple in every 1.5-2 years, or whatever is the average to finish all the training.
BTW I forgot include all those CFIs who will leave once they start time building because of financial hardship. DCA is no exception. CFIs leave for financial reasons, some leave because they don’t get the time as fast as they hoped, some simply pick up a job while they are waiting for their number to come up and they stick to it… etc. When the hiring went on several guys were impatient to wait out their dual given requirement that makes one eligible for the interview. And of course there are those who figure out that instructing was really not for them. All this further decreases the success rate.
On top of all this, when you read the posts here or elsewhere, pretty much everyone says who attended, that the program is very intense and competitive. 10% may sound too low but it is just a little intro for what is ahead if one has a major airline in front of him/her.
I think many who once figured “I want to be an airline pilot!” need to do a reality check before diving into training and opening the checkbook. It is no cakewalk regardless if you go to an FBO, or to a known academy. Many will never make it.
