The Feast part of Feast or Famine
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flyover
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There has been a lot of conversation about the famine part of aviation. I was curious what things are/were like when the aviation industry is/will be on the other side of its pendulum.
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During the golden times it was a dream. 25 years ago the money was good, the time off was unbelievable, the load factors were low so you could non-rev any time you wanted. Senior captains had so much vacation they were in danger of forgetting how to get to work. It was sweet.
Then deregulation. At first there was panic at the majors as airlines like People Express sprang up, some airlines quickly got into trouble, like Frontier and Braniff. But after a little dust settling it was decided that things would be OK and while productivity went up, ie pilots had to fly a little more, wages could head back up again.
What wasn't understood was that deregulation was going to permanently change the industry, from a sheltered almost public utility type thing to a vicious, free-market driven business.
I personally can see no conceivable scenario that puts this industry back in the pre-deregulation mode. There is zero appetite for it in DC. The truth is the public loves how cheap and accessible airline travel has become. Business travelers, who carried the industry on their shoulders through the nineties, are not going back to paying anywhere near what they used to pay, period.
How tough it gets or stays depends on a lot of things. One is whether the drop in pay, benefits, and working conditions is enough to discourage many from becoming pilots. Also, how adept ALPA is at making it through this. When things got really tough in the beginning pilots saw a need for a union. But unions won't be able to overcome, to any great extent, market forces on pay and benefits.
That means the future is a little cloudy. No way it will be as chaotic as it is now. The airlines or their survivors will shed debt, pension obligations and a good chunk of their labor costs and become viable again. There will be fewer opportunites for upstarts to cherry pick because the hub carriers will be able to make money at lower fares. So it should settle down to some extent.
One thing that probably will happen, possible pretty soon, is liberalization of treaties with other countries to allow investment in US carriers. This will lead to merging US with European and Asian airlines. What this means for pay and work rules I'm not sure. But it will be good for the airlines as it brings fresh capital into the industry.
There are definitely a few more chapters to write in this wacky airline business.
Dave
There has been a lot of conversation about the famine part of aviation. I was curious what things are/were like when the aviation industry is/will be on the other side of its pendulum.
[/ QUOTE ]
During the golden times it was a dream. 25 years ago the money was good, the time off was unbelievable, the load factors were low so you could non-rev any time you wanted. Senior captains had so much vacation they were in danger of forgetting how to get to work. It was sweet.
Then deregulation. At first there was panic at the majors as airlines like People Express sprang up, some airlines quickly got into trouble, like Frontier and Braniff. But after a little dust settling it was decided that things would be OK and while productivity went up, ie pilots had to fly a little more, wages could head back up again.
What wasn't understood was that deregulation was going to permanently change the industry, from a sheltered almost public utility type thing to a vicious, free-market driven business.
I personally can see no conceivable scenario that puts this industry back in the pre-deregulation mode. There is zero appetite for it in DC. The truth is the public loves how cheap and accessible airline travel has become. Business travelers, who carried the industry on their shoulders through the nineties, are not going back to paying anywhere near what they used to pay, period.
How tough it gets or stays depends on a lot of things. One is whether the drop in pay, benefits, and working conditions is enough to discourage many from becoming pilots. Also, how adept ALPA is at making it through this. When things got really tough in the beginning pilots saw a need for a union. But unions won't be able to overcome, to any great extent, market forces on pay and benefits.
That means the future is a little cloudy. No way it will be as chaotic as it is now. The airlines or their survivors will shed debt, pension obligations and a good chunk of their labor costs and become viable again. There will be fewer opportunites for upstarts to cherry pick because the hub carriers will be able to make money at lower fares. So it should settle down to some extent.
One thing that probably will happen, possible pretty soon, is liberalization of treaties with other countries to allow investment in US carriers. This will lead to merging US with European and Asian airlines. What this means for pay and work rules I'm not sure. But it will be good for the airlines as it brings fresh capital into the industry.
There are definitely a few more chapters to write in this wacky airline business.
Dave
Cosmo1999
Well-Known Member
I think what I should have said was that even when the hiring is good at airlines I still think its in famine mode until you can at least upgrade to regional airline captain. Regional F/Os never make that great of money. Once you upgrade you can consider it feast. Hiring probably wont be like it was 5 years ago for the next few years at least. once you can get on at a major you can do pretty well. As far as hiring goes the regionals are hiring a lot but its still famine for two reasons. One there are always more applicants than job slots and two you still only make peanuts until you upgrade to captain.
