The Death of General Aviation

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Roger, Roger

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Something from the "Crisis in flight training" thread got me thinking about the decline in GA. It is evident at my home FBO here... there are dozens and dozens of owned, paid for, airworthy airplanes that do nothing but sit and fly just a few times between annuals. The pattern is dead most days. Our flight training business is pretty skimpy, even though we're in an area with oodles of oil and other money that hasn't been totally decimated by the economy.

So what do you think is causing the decline in hobby and personal transportation flying?

Insurance costs?

Parts/maintenance costs?

Other more attractive hobbies?

Cheap airline tickets?

Gubmint regulation?
 
Roger said:
Something from the "Crisis in flight training" thread got me thinking about the decline in GA. It is evident at my home FBO here... there are dozens and dozens of owned, paid for, airworthy airplanes that do nothing but sit and fly just a few times between annuals. The pattern is dead most days. Our flight training business is pretty skimpy, even though we're in an area with oodles of oil and other money that hasn't been totally decimated by the economy.

So what do you think is causing the decline in hobby and personal transportation flying?

Insurance costs?

Parts/maintenance costs?

Other more attractive hobbies?

Cheap airline tickets?

Gubmint regulation?
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Look up SATS, I really think that that's the way of the future. I think insurance is really what kills small time mom-and-pop operations from starting up. In some cases, the insurance is more than fuel.
 
I sometimes think that airplane owners bought into this business when money was readily available. Not they have lost pensions or whatnot so they can no longer afford the costs associated with flying a luxury dreamliner.

If a retired couple is on a fixed income then there isn't much money to go around if some of the fees have risen to what is needed to survive.
 
I'm glad you posted this because I posted more or less the same thing in that thread.

The PPL is the gatekeeper. The old guys you see puttering around in their 140s or 172s probably earned their PPLs back in the 70s or 80s - when you could do it for about $2k +/-. If I'm that guy driving by the airport every day, thinking "man, I've always wanted to learn how to fly!", a $25 discovery flight and an investment of $500 a month for 4-months or so isn't prohibitive.

I recently had a friend's husband contact me about learning to fly. Has wanted to learn for as long as he could remember. I set him up with a local FBO to take a discovery flight at $125. He took the flight, and despite having a lot of fun, he came back and said he couldn't really justify dropping $7-8k on a license. This guy is a business professional who travels quite a bit, and could actually benefit substantially from having a GA aircraft - but the PPL is too great of a hump.

The other big consideration is that our expendable wealth is decreasing. There's a local surgeon (Dick Karl) who has a column in Flying. For years I've read about him flying his turboprop aircraft around the country for various events, family gatherings, vacations, etc. One of his last columns before I stopped getting the magazine was about how he was considering selling it because he couldn't justify spending $2k to fly he and his wife to Nashivlle, when airline tickets are $200.

I even look at myself - my wife and I make a very good living - about $140k a year combined in a state with sub par wages, but no state income tax. I can't afford to own my own 172. In fact, I sometimes stress about the costs associated with sharing a 172 with 14 other guys! 15-years ago, adjusting my salary for inflation, I wouldn't have had any problem with it.

So you have all of these old guys looking to sell their planes to a generation of men and women who can't afford to buy them, let alone take care of them. On top of that, fewer of us are getting PPLs in the first place.

With or without user fees, I think GA will probably shrink in capacity to a considerable extent - driven in no small part to the sizeable gap between auto fuel and avgas prices. And if I am someone with money, why am I going to spend $400k on a new 400, when I can spend that much for an early 80s model Citation jet? Or spend $300k on a King Air 90?

On the plus side, if you do want to own your own GA aircraft, just wait a couple of years. They'll be giving them away soon enough.
 
Insurance has to be the #1 killer, especially the "walk into any FBO and there are planes to rent" way of the past.

RD
 
rd757 said:
Insurance has to be the #1 killer, especially the "walk into any FBO and there are planes to rent" way of the past.

RD
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Insurance? Sounds familiar to healthcare problems. But let's not waste our energy on that in this thread!

It seems as though insurance is there to help us when in need, like say an accident or incident. But if there aren't any accidents because people aren't flying and not paying their premiums, then what is an insurance company to do then to generate revenue?
 
Roger said:
So what do you think is causing the decline in hobby and personal transportation flying?

Insurance costs?

Parts/maintenance costs?

Other more attractive hobbies?

Cheap airline tickets?

Gubmint regulation?
Click to expand...

Yes.

Maybe add video games to the list. Kids who used to grow up wanting to be pilots now get all their experience from video games instead of the real thing- plus video games are easier for them to master.
 
The root of the problem is trial lawyers. GA is probably one of the hardest hit industries but not the only one. If you examine closely you will find a significant amount of destruction to the US economy from their efforts. Sure sometimes a legitimate wrong needs to be addressed but there needs to be a balance point. The trail lawyers are so far from it they don't have a clue where the balance point should be. The destruction will continue until there is nothing left or a force outside their world stops them from their unbalanced activity.
 
Hi Guys,

Think the big killer was insurance. Many, many commercial operators reported horrific increases after 9/11.

From what I understand, there is getting to be more competition in that arena, so the usurious rates that the insurers are getting is starting to abate somewhat.

On top of that, FBOs no longer wanted to be the end-all-be-all to everyone, or be exposed to the liability, so they outsourced (or eliminated) training/rental. With piston aircraft "outside the tent", FBOs saw leaseback aircraft as a revenue source, not a loss leader, and squeezed until leasebacks were no longer even a break even proposition. This alone was probably responsible for the huge reduction in rental availability.

In a HUGE market such as SoFL, would would think that it'd be full of rental aircraft. Nope...I can count on my hands the total number available. Selection is bad, prices are high, and the trouble from cranky operators simply not worth it. When I first started flying down here in 1989, even the scrub operations had 8-10 birds.

What chills me more, IMHO, is the distance that the AOPA seems to be putting between themselves and the piston market. Every time I get their mag, more and more of it is devoted to the high end turbine market (it's starting to look a LOT like Flying, which I haven't read in years for the same reason).

This latest "cooperative" venture with the EAA tells me they want to "position" themselves as the defender of the money crowd, and let the piston guys slogg it out with the experimental folks.

Paranoid? Hurm...maybe after years watching my airline outsource flying has given me reason to be suspect...but watch how the money flows, and that will usually give you your answer....

Richman
 
I know the FBO that I trained out of this past summer didn't do aircraft owners any favors into placing planes in the leaseback program. About 5 years ago, they had about 15 airplanes, from PA28's to C172 and even a couple of BE-76's. Flash forward to today, and they have 1 PA28, 2 DA20's and 2 DA40's. Their policy is that they have to sale the brand of airplanes (Limiting them to Pilatus, Piper and Diamond.) So, basically 2 types for rental. Secondly, they have to be less than 18 years old, so that the airplane is covered by GARA. Their maintenance department is so scared of being sued, they won't touch an airplane older than 18 years, again due to GARA.

Insurance is likely the biggest hurdle to rental aircraft out there today. But, if you own your own, nobody says you have to carry anything. And, quite frankly, on something really old (say a mid-70's 172) I don't think I'd carry hull insurance. I'd carry liability, but probably nothing more.
 
flyingmaniac said:
Insurance? Sounds familiar to healthcare problems. But let's not waste our energy on that in this thread!

It seems as though insurance is there to help us when in need, like say an accident or incident. But if there aren't any accidents because people aren't flying and not paying their premiums, then what is an insurance company to do then to generate revenue?
Click to expand...

I mean rates. The hikes post 9/11 and a few other times have put many FBO's out of the rental business. You used to you just walk into any old FBO and they'd have rentals.
 
Roger said:
Something from the "Crisis in flight training" thread got me thinking about the decline in GA. It is evident at my home FBO here... there are dozens and dozens of owned, paid for, airworthy airplanes that do nothing but sit and fly just a few times between annuals. The pattern is dead most days. Our flight training business is pretty skimpy, even though we're in an area with oodles of oil and other money that hasn't been totally decimated by the economy.
Click to expand...


I would disagree with that last statement I see you are at lone star executive in Conroe(houston). I lived in Houston until April of this year and worked in the Oil and Gas bidness and there were a lot of lay offs. I know many people down there looking for work and have not found it. I believe it is the economy.
 
Insurance has got to be it. I rent a really really nice PA28 from a company about 2 hrs south of me. They had it on the flight line and it cost them $140/hr to operate because of insurance. They took it off the flight line and added me as a pilot. I'm paying them $110/hr now.

It's ridiculous. You can operate some of the light sports for just under $50/hr but insurance will nearly double that price.
 
Mike H said:
Maybe add video games to the list. Kids who used to grow up wanting to be pilots now get all their experience from video games instead of the real thing- plus video games are easier for them to master.
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IDK about that. Playing the few flying games I have, has only motivated me more to become the pilot I dream of being.

Money and insurance... definitely.
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I think some of (a lot of) it is interest.. I see plenty of people buying high ticket items, Taking trips and what not. So the money is there.

I get the impression that the average person does not know the opportunities that GA offers. Nothing frustrates me more then the constant AOPA mail I get begging for money to "support GA" when I don't see one commercial on TV (much less prime time) telling people about learning to fly. They make great ads for their website that no one sees but their members.

I live in a town full of people that have money, true the prices are higher now to fly then they were 5 or 6 years ago but people can afford to learn to fly.

Insurance and gas is the likely reason some of the older pilots aren't flying right now and that will change when the economy picks back up but it comes back to 1) new student starts and 2) completion rate.. Unless we as an industry do a better way of selling flight, we will shrink and die off.

All that will be left is the pilot mills, training foreign students and sully wanna be s.
 
Mike H said:
Yes.

Maybe add video games to the list. Kids who used to grow up wanting to be pilots now get all their experience from video games instead of the real thing- plus video games are easier for them to master.
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I'd disagree, actually I'd even say that it helps get more people interested in it. It did for me.

surreal1221 said:
It's simple:

Most people just don't want to fly.

Case closed.
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:yeahthat:
 
Roger said:
So what do you think is causing the decline in hobby and personal transportation flying?
Click to expand...

The inability for instructors/flight schools to give a fairly solid average cost to spend for a person to get their private license. The lack of structure across the board with regards to "what am I getting out of my investment" other than that little greenish blue card. People spend 10,000 on flight training, and very few places really catch them up to speed on what they are investing in. Smart investors know what they are getting for the dollars they spend, and right now the smart investor is the only one with money.

Maybe your school doesn't fit into this category, but most I have been to in the NJ area do. I went around to about 20 schools in my area posing as a student and asking them to explain to me what I would get for an investment of 7k-10k. Let us just say, if I was a laymen I would feel like I was pissing my money away. Here is a typical list of what I got:

  • Basic cost of a/c and instructor
  • Average time to completion
  • A syllabus, sometimes, which was horribly explained
  • Materials needed (rarely included everything)
  • Occasionally a discussion about a ground school offered
  • A few offered a philosophy they adhered to
  • This lasted for maybe 50 percent of the time, the other 50 percent was getting the license and things you could do with it.

Well I am sorry, I am not investing in having a license, I can learn about what I can do with it if I choose to invest in the first place. A smart investor is looking for how you are using their money to get them there, their training as that is what they are in fact investing in.

One question I asked to each was, please explain "average" to me. Almost every school without fail looked as though I hit them in the face with a fish I caught earlier that morning. Others stuttered through giving answers between 70 and 95 percent. Absolutely non were willing or had available statistics to prove this. Smart investment? Likely not.

Some offered to print them out statistics. Of course after stuttering through the answer or not having one at all it obviously showed they had no idea. I would question how legit those statistics would be at that point.

Here is what I think a school should be able to answer at minimum, and some of this just isn't available with the way things are today.

  • A statistical analysis of completions. What percentages fall into the varying hourly totals.
  • Philosophy for teaching and working with the student.
  • A structured syllabus, not just a short pamphlet, that the investor could go home and review for a few days.
  • Documentation on cost, easy to read that doesn't require explanation. A smart investor can put the hours together on a calculator very easily without having to listen to the salesmen's BS.
  • Instructor/student pledge similar to that of a college.
  • Paper on things you can do with your private upon completion.
  • List of required and optional items to invest in and approximate cost that are required for their training.

Others I won't list here but you will all see in a couple months. As you can see though, the time would be spent handing them various forms and explaining how they can be read. From there you offer to answer any questions they have and allow them to take it home and learn what they are investing in. A smart investor can take that home and crunch the numbers, see what they are putting in, what the probability is of them making that as a smart investment, and come out ready to make an informed decision, which is what any smart investor would do.


On a side note to this, many people view flight as a nothing more than a fun thing to do that might provide slightly easier transportation (rarely). Meaning there is little financial incentive to investing in a pilots license. Maybe someday with newer aircraft and different ideas we can collectively come up with other things flight can offer to the investor, I believe that alone will help this industry.


Sorry for the rant, I have been doing research on this for over 6 months now, so I kind of had a lot to say.
 
Experimental seems to be the way to go. I'd love a Cherokee or something, but I doubt I could afford it.
 
shdw said:
I went around to about 20 schools in my area posing as a student and asking them to explain to me what I would get for an investment of 7k-10k.
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Somebody has too much free time on their hands...:D (Not that I disagree at all with your findings.)
 
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