Beaker
Well-Known Member
I saw in another thread that a Delta ALPA study once reported that the average age of a deceased Delta pilot is 66.49 years. This struck me as concerning, given that American male life expectancy should be at least 10 years better than that, and female even better. It also struck me as a funny way to phrase things: "average age of those deceased." My assumption is that "average age of the deceased" tracks all pilots who die, young and old alike (not just retirees). I was curious what that really meant, or didn't, as far as appraising the health outcomes of the airline pilot life.
Therefore, I founded TransFallacious Airlines and followed its pilots through 150 years of breathtaking aviation history. At its start, TransFallacious airlines was staffed with a cohort of 35 year-old pilots. Each year, the pilots got older, and unfortunately some of them died according to the mortality rates listed in the Social Security actuary table. Those that kept on trucking were forced to retire at 65, but we kept track of these retirees and noted when they died as well. New 35 year-old pilots were added each year to account for attrition.
We also considered two growth scenarios, where the pilot workforce grew by 3% or 6% annually. In this case, the number of new 35 year-olds added each year was increased to accomplish the growth. To be clear, every single 35 year-old pilot that joined TransFallacious had an actual life expectancy of 78 years. Now let's track the "average age of the deceased" over the history of TransFallacious and see how it compares:
You can see that the very early years of the airline were very dark indeed. In those days, the average age of a deceased pilot was less than 40! Of course, when you only have young pilots in your population, the average age of those who have died will also be young.
But time marches on, and after many many decades things improved. As the pilot group ages, so does the average age of the deceased. In the case of no growth, an asymptote is eventually reached that approximates the actual life expectancy. However, it never fully gets there, because of the young pilots that are always being added. These new young pilot cohorts have the "opportunity" to contribute their young deaths, but have not had enough time to contribute their old deaths. Thus the "average age of those deceased" will always be less than a person's actual life expectancy. This effect is magnified if the airline is growing, as more and more young pilots are added to account for the growth. In the case of 6% annual growth, the average age of a deceased pilot plateaus at 64. So watch out: the stronger your airline, the sooner you die!
There are certainly reasons to suspect the airline life is not the best for one's longevity, but take anything reported as "average age of the deceased" with a grain of salt. It is not the same as a cohort study, where you follow a group of same-aged people through all of their deaths, and it is highly sensitive to the demographic and growth history of the airline. The figure of 66.49 years does not seem that weird.
Therefore, I founded TransFallacious Airlines and followed its pilots through 150 years of breathtaking aviation history. At its start, TransFallacious airlines was staffed with a cohort of 35 year-old pilots. Each year, the pilots got older, and unfortunately some of them died according to the mortality rates listed in the Social Security actuary table. Those that kept on trucking were forced to retire at 65, but we kept track of these retirees and noted when they died as well. New 35 year-old pilots were added each year to account for attrition.
We also considered two growth scenarios, where the pilot workforce grew by 3% or 6% annually. In this case, the number of new 35 year-olds added each year was increased to accomplish the growth. To be clear, every single 35 year-old pilot that joined TransFallacious had an actual life expectancy of 78 years. Now let's track the "average age of the deceased" over the history of TransFallacious and see how it compares:
You can see that the very early years of the airline were very dark indeed. In those days, the average age of a deceased pilot was less than 40! Of course, when you only have young pilots in your population, the average age of those who have died will also be young.
But time marches on, and after many many decades things improved. As the pilot group ages, so does the average age of the deceased. In the case of no growth, an asymptote is eventually reached that approximates the actual life expectancy. However, it never fully gets there, because of the young pilots that are always being added. These new young pilot cohorts have the "opportunity" to contribute their young deaths, but have not had enough time to contribute their old deaths. Thus the "average age of those deceased" will always be less than a person's actual life expectancy. This effect is magnified if the airline is growing, as more and more young pilots are added to account for the growth. In the case of 6% annual growth, the average age of a deceased pilot plateaus at 64. So watch out: the stronger your airline, the sooner you die!
There are certainly reasons to suspect the airline life is not the best for one's longevity, but take anything reported as "average age of the deceased" with a grain of salt. It is not the same as a cohort study, where you follow a group of same-aged people through all of their deaths, and it is highly sensitive to the demographic and growth history of the airline. The figure of 66.49 years does not seem that weird.
