Start moving up the food chain...

It's not even legal for them to talk to each other and "agree" to match increases is it?

HAHA legal...

Its not a bad time nor is it a good time. Its aviation, its a crap shoot... Hopefully this so called "pilot shortage" will offset some of the furloughs that I think may come in the next couple years if the economy doesn't start getting better...

If the amount of people flying declines then the amount of pilots flying them will decline. Its as simple as that.
 
Because despite management's insistence that load factors don't matter and yield is everything they still have a perverse (and somewhat justified) fear that if they raise their prices and nobody else follows they will lose all their customers. Call it the "uber" Southwest Effect. It happens all the time. One company will slap on a fee or raise a fare and either everybody else matches it or nobody else matches it and the original company is forced to lower their fare or remove the fee.

Yup.

One thing I was also told from a few people from management at our company was that any price increase is short lasted. Eventually not enough companies follow in the increase, and even some chop the legs off short just for a few more passengers. These fare hikes last maybe 3-6 months.

What kinda gets me is that no one has kept these fares in LONG enough to see if it's beneficial. A 6 month fare hike won't do you any good 12 or 18 months down the road, but leave it in long enough, and you might be surprised at the loads when it is all said in done.

That's me taking my macro-economics thinking into the airline world. . .although it's not a perfect analysis, and I'm not a pricer, or an economist, it just makes sense if your raw good costs go up - you have to transfer that price somewhere (either to increasing the price of your service. . .which is WAY too low as it is, or to labor. . .which I'm obviously not a fan of).

I think before these companies start chopping off labor, they need to look deep and hard at their business model, and realize that every 5-10 years they can't keep coming to labor to save costs, otherwise in 40-50 years there will be no labor force that is willing to get chopped off every 10 years.

The pilot workforce is pretty damn militant as it is right now, so any FURTHER wage reduction is just going to make us go ballistic on someone or something. As far as the other work groups, well. . .I don't know. But I know my father, although he has been pretty lucky to not get furloughed or told to leave in his 20 years at Southernjets, he is tired of being thrown under the bus while management floats off in their parachutes.

Find a business model that works (I'm sure one exists. . .you just have to charge an appropriate fare to combat the increased cost of your raw goods) and stick with it. Keep any fare increases in long enough to see if people will eventually keep flying. 3-6 months is far too short.

Maybe with the coming up Spring and Summer travel seasons they'll up fares, and keep them in for more than just a season.
 
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5621590.html

Linked article said:
Continental warns of 'tough decisions'

Continental Airlines CEO Larry Kellner strongly hinted Friday that some big changes in the way the airline is operating may have to be made soon if high oil prices persist.

Airlines for months have been raising fares to try to offset the high prices. Another increase of as much as $50 on round-trip tickets was put in place by United Airlines and matched Friday by Continental.

But more may have to be done, the chairman and chief executive of Houston-based Continental said Friday.

Kellner told employees in a taped message that at today's fuel prices, the carrier will pay about $1.5 billion more for fuel in 2008 than it did last year.

"We can absorb these extraordinary high fuel prices for a little while," maybe a few months, Kellner said. "But if these prices continue, we will have to make some tough decisions to make sure the size of our network is right for a world with fuel at such astronomical rates."

At least one other airline signaled Friday that changes may be on the way because of high oil prices. At Atlanta-based Delta Airlines, Chief Executive Richard Anderson told employees it will be rolling out a comprehensive plan next week.

That carrier already has made some cuts domestically, he noted.

"Do everything you can to preserve fuel," Anderson told the Delta workers in his own taped message.

Kellner told employees the carrier would not ask for more cuts and concessions, as it did a few years ago.

However, "we'll all have to work together to increase revenues and decrease costs," if oil remains high.

Whatever steps may be taken, Continental pilots, who rallied this week in New York City to draw attention to their contract negotiations with management, will make sure their interests are protected, spokesman Mark Adams said Friday.

"This was the theme of our rally," Adams said. "Fuel costs what fuel costs and pilots cost what pilots cost and sometime you have to raise the fare for both."

Friday's fare increase by United and matched by Continental had not been matched by other big carriers, but Rick Seaney of FareCompare.com said he didn't find that surprising.

"Airlines along with consumers are probably absorbing the impact of this jolt and it may take them a few days to decide on proper levels of matching," Seaney said in a report. "Most likely they will match."

The $50 hike was only for the longest flights, with the increases for shorter trips starting at $4 a round-trip, he said.

To stay in place, fare increases need all major airlines to participate. If only one chooses not to raise prices, the attempt usually collapses.

Airlines have raised fares at least six times in the past three months as oil and fuel prices have continued to rise. The price for a barrel of West Texas crude closed at more than $110 a barrel Friday.

Well, that's a start.
 
It's not even legal for them to talk to each other and "agree" to match increases is it?

I'm reminded of a classic conversation between Braniff's CEO Howard Putnam and AMR's former CEO Bob Crandall:

Putnam: Do you have a suggestion for me?

Crandall: Yes, I have a suggestion for you. Raise your g--damn fares twenty percent. I'll raise mine the next morning. You'll make more money and I will too.

Putnam: Robert, we can't talk about pricing.

Crandall: Oh, bull----, Howard. We can talk about any g--damn thing we want to talk about.

:D
 
Over on FI they're talking about the announcement from Anderson next week, saying that DL might just go ahead with the merger without pilot support. If so, might be AWA/AAA redux in the long run...

Also, that maybe another trip to BK court might be coming, if voluntary concessions aren't reached!

All rumors and conjecture, yes, but, it's what's being talked bout' over there...
 
I think they'll have a hard time getting a court to approve another bankruptcy now that the laws have changed. They're not in debt issues, they're in a cost issue. I think after the beating all the labor groups industry wide took in the last round of bankruptcies, voluntary cuts are gonna be hard to come by without some SERIOUS work rules being altered.

Now might be the time for our MEC to go to Delta and NWA saying "Hey, you tell our company to settle this deal, and we'll tell our guys to taxi single engine more often."
 
Over on FI they're talking about the announcement from Anderson next week, saying that DL might just go ahead with the merger without pilot support. If so, might be AWA/AAA redux in the long run...

Also, that maybe another trip to BK court might be coming, if voluntary concessions aren't reached!

Actually, Max, they changed the bankruptcy laws that allowed companies to abrogate Union contracts in bankruptcy. Interestingly, the last trip Delta took through court came ONE day before the new laws went into effect.
 
Well, there were changes to bankruptcy laws, but not enough changes to prevent them from gutting our contracts. The 1113(c) process still exists in corporate bankruptcy law. ALPA is working hard to get it eliminated with a bankruptcy reform bill that is in committee, but no success yet. It's very important that this change be made before the next round of bankruptcies. All ALPA members: please contribute to ALPA-PAC!!!
 
Back
Top