Basically the theory goes that if we get merged into a union carrier, the union will have it's way with us non union types. I've heard everything from we would be stapled to just straight replaced. There's precedent in place to prevent both from happening.
Do I know what will happen in a merger? Of course not. I believe what us more important in determining who gets screwed is not whether you are a union carrier or not, but instead how financially strong your company was at the time of the merger (combined with which one was acquired).
It could end up that being non union is a major disadvantage, but I would rather remain non union, and accept any consequences.
I just find it frustrating when people act like they "know" what will happen. No one does, even with two union carriers. Watch what happens with US Airways. That's going to be interesting.
I'm not saying this will happen, and I can't even tell you that what I'm about to say is possible, but consider this for a moment.
Bond-McCaskill says that the integration of seniority lists must be "fair." It does not define what that means, but I think it's safe to say that it means that there won't likely be a staple of two seniority lists.
But other than fair, what does it mean? A 2 to 1 integration? A 3 to 1 integration? If your management group is the agent bargaining with the union carrier you merge with for the seniority list integration, what's to stop the union from agreeing to a pay cut in order to make gains in seniority? Again, it has to be fair, but if I were in management, I would stretch that to the absolute limit. And if I was running the other union, I'd off to take a 10% pay cut across the board in order to get big gains in seniority. Your pilots may take pay cuts in their categories, but if everybody upgrades, then who cares. And if the non-union pilot group doesn't like it, there's likely nothing they can do about it.
Further, I don't think that the financial strength of the companies has anything to do with how the integration goes, but again, I'm not positive enough to say that with a high level of certainty. I will say I've never read of that happening when a case has gone before a tribunal of some sort.
EDIT: I should also add, if you say that management won't do something like this because "they care, and wouldn't want to piss us off," then how would they respond to a share holder that claims that they have breached their fiduciary responsibility to the share holders to maximize the return on their investment? Sure, there's the business judgement rule, but if you could create hundreds of millions in savings by hosing one pilot group, does it still fall within that scope? To be honest, I don't know, but if I was a CEO, I wouldn't want to find out.