Regional Airline Trouble?
- Thread starter Soonermurph
- Start date
flyover
New Member
This is all "fun" speculation. Of course Boyd has been warning for some time that the regionals were over-expanding. So this article just repeats that.
There are so many dynamics at play that no one article can cover them all. The industry is just starting a major transformation. There will be some stone losers and much consolidation.
The wild card that no one speaks to is the scope clauses that currently keep regionals from flying bigger jets. There will be a great deal of pressure from within and outside of ALPA to do away with scope. That's probably the bigger challenge ALPA faces.
There are so many dynamics at play that no one article can cover them all. The industry is just starting a major transformation. There will be some stone losers and much consolidation.
The wild card that no one speaks to is the scope clauses that currently keep regionals from flying bigger jets. There will be a great deal of pressure from within and outside of ALPA to do away with scope. That's probably the bigger challenge ALPA faces.
Timbuff10
Well-Known Member
I predict CO will transfer alot of their 737s to CO express and eventually CO mainline will be primarily an international airline with hub to hub service, a few feeder domestic routes and perhaps some cross country domestic flights such as EWR to LAX and a few other large cities that an RJ can not make.
sigmanu499
New Member
Ya know, Aviation Week had an article about that almost two years ago. I dont remember specifics but it said something like the main line carriers will do international flying and then have alliances with low fare carrier for the domestic flying. Like if United instead of messing with Ted, just bought Frontier but kept it as an independent carrier with code share. Or something like that.
stultus
New Member
[ QUOTE ]
and eventually CO mainline will be primarily an international airline with hub to hub service, a few feeder domestic routes and perhaps some cross country domestic flights such as EWR to LAX and a few other large cities that an RJ can not make.
[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't it that already?
I mean they've only got ONE mainline from MSP to EWR!--which is almost hub to hub--and IAD to IAH is all, or just about all RJ.
and eventually CO mainline will be primarily an international airline with hub to hub service, a few feeder domestic routes and perhaps some cross country domestic flights such as EWR to LAX and a few other large cities that an RJ can not make.
[/ QUOTE ]
Isn't it that already?
Soonermurph
New Member
Well, we can take solice in the knowledge that people need to fly places and airlines, in whatever form, will be around to fly them.
JJJoeJabba
New Member
Perhaps, but if there is any validity in the speculations and the regional ailines can become more competitive. It would drive down the wages of pilots in the major airlines, and thereby the earnings of pilots as a whole.
Timbuff10
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it that already?
I mean they've only got ONE mainline from MSP to EWR!--which is almost hub to hub--and IAD to IAH is all, or just about all RJ.
[/ QUOTE ]
MSP is a bit of an exception. Cities like MSP and DTW are fortress hubs. NW protects its routes like no other. We at Frontier are finding that out right now although we are slowly pecking away rather than going away.
Check Cleveland, seen the CO traffic there lately? ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, 757, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, 737, ERJ, ERJ.... repeat. Soon those two mainlines will be replaced by ERJs.
Isn't it that already?
[/ QUOTE ]
MSP is a bit of an exception. Cities like MSP and DTW are fortress hubs. NW protects its routes like no other. We at Frontier are finding that out right now although we are slowly pecking away rather than going away.
Check Cleveland, seen the CO traffic there lately? ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, 757, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, ERJ, 737, ERJ, ERJ.... repeat. Soon those two mainlines will be replaced by ERJs.
flyover
New Member
[ QUOTE ]
The thing is, I think the regional pilots need to drive the pay up and stop thinking that the regional is a stepping stone to the majors. At least that is how it appears from the outside.
[/ QUOTE ]
No pilots are in a position to "drive the pay up" right now. Many will be faced with the prospect of losing their jobs. Some regional pilots will start to resent scope clauses that keep them from flying bigger jets. They will be willing to fly bigger jets for less than "standard" mainline rates (whatever that is anymore).
In the mad scramble of industry consolidation any pilot group that tries to "hold the line" on pay and other issues will get shut out or bypassed.
This is definitely a time for ALPA to think about cutting losses and living to fight another day. If they don't they won't exist as a national union in a few years.
And that's the rosy scenario!
The thing is, I think the regional pilots need to drive the pay up and stop thinking that the regional is a stepping stone to the majors. At least that is how it appears from the outside.
[/ QUOTE ]
No pilots are in a position to "drive the pay up" right now. Many will be faced with the prospect of losing their jobs. Some regional pilots will start to resent scope clauses that keep them from flying bigger jets. They will be willing to fly bigger jets for less than "standard" mainline rates (whatever that is anymore).
In the mad scramble of industry consolidation any pilot group that tries to "hold the line" on pay and other issues will get shut out or bypassed.
This is definitely a time for ALPA to think about cutting losses and living to fight another day. If they don't they won't exist as a national union in a few years.
And that's the rosy scenario!
Icelandair
New Member
Theres always Amtrak then...
ramprat2035
New Member
Again we all forget how regionals can fly passengers to airports that majors just cannot. Not to mention not too many people fly to cities such as Macon GA or Waco TX.
ACA was a bust!!! They were not happy with the deal United offered them and it appears that Delta was not happy with them. It is a tough market but as mentioned 3 regionals have more effect than 1 737.
I have trouble with many of the points made in the article. Most of the regional carriers that are contract carriers for majors did not go through much in the way of change. In some cases there were voluntary pay cuts that did not last very long. If anyone would listen to rumors, we would still be in the dark ages. This was no surprise with ACA. Working the D/FW ramp we used to hear a different rumor every day.
The smart airlines seek more contracts. The difference is the service they provide their passengers on behalf of their Major carrier.
I think the next 18 months or so will be very interesting.
ACA was a bust!!! They were not happy with the deal United offered them and it appears that Delta was not happy with them. It is a tough market but as mentioned 3 regionals have more effect than 1 737.
I have trouble with many of the points made in the article. Most of the regional carriers that are contract carriers for majors did not go through much in the way of change. In some cases there were voluntary pay cuts that did not last very long. If anyone would listen to rumors, we would still be in the dark ages. This was no surprise with ACA. Working the D/FW ramp we used to hear a different rumor every day.
The smart airlines seek more contracts. The difference is the service they provide their passengers on behalf of their Major carrier.
I think the next 18 months or so will be very interesting.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
[ QUOTE ]
No pilots are in a position to "drive the pay up" right now. Many will be faced with the prospect of losing their jobs. Some regional pilots will start to resent scope clauses that keep them from flying bigger jets. They will be willing to fly bigger jets for less than "standard" mainline rates (whatever that is anymore).
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, this is about to happen. ACA (Indenpedence Air, whatever) is getting ready to fly the A320s, so we'll see how that works for their pilot group. Mesa has been hinting at 737-300s, and their pilot group is already drawing a line in the sand on pay rates. Rumor had it that Mesa wanted them to fly the 737 for CRJ-900 pay. Most of the pilots said they wouldn't do it. So, now it's a question if Mesa will pull the Freedom stunt again to try to get the 737s on the cheap.
I've also read articles lately that say the regionals (along with the LCC) will soon dominate the domestic market. Somebody's gotta be wrong, they regionals can't dominate and crumble at the same time. If they are too tied into their mainline contracts and lack the foresight to strike out on their own, they will probably go down.
Anybody else see history starting to repeat itself here? When the airlines first started there were tons of smaller airlines, then the government forced most of them to merger into larger airlines. Pan Am was the only airline with international routes, so all the domestic airlines fed into Pan Am hubs for international flights. Looks like those large airlines might be spilitting back into the smaller airlines, and those small airlines may start feeding international airline hubs. Just an observation.
No pilots are in a position to "drive the pay up" right now. Many will be faced with the prospect of losing their jobs. Some regional pilots will start to resent scope clauses that keep them from flying bigger jets. They will be willing to fly bigger jets for less than "standard" mainline rates (whatever that is anymore).
[/ QUOTE ]
Well, this is about to happen. ACA (Indenpedence Air, whatever) is getting ready to fly the A320s, so we'll see how that works for their pilot group. Mesa has been hinting at 737-300s, and their pilot group is already drawing a line in the sand on pay rates. Rumor had it that Mesa wanted them to fly the 737 for CRJ-900 pay. Most of the pilots said they wouldn't do it. So, now it's a question if Mesa will pull the Freedom stunt again to try to get the 737s on the cheap.
I've also read articles lately that say the regionals (along with the LCC) will soon dominate the domestic market. Somebody's gotta be wrong, they regionals can't dominate and crumble at the same time. If they are too tied into their mainline contracts and lack the foresight to strike out on their own, they will probably go down.
Anybody else see history starting to repeat itself here? When the airlines first started there were tons of smaller airlines, then the government forced most of them to merger into larger airlines. Pan Am was the only airline with international routes, so all the domestic airlines fed into Pan Am hubs for international flights. Looks like those large airlines might be spilitting back into the smaller airlines, and those small airlines may start feeding international airline hubs. Just an observation.
CaptainChris87
New Member
yeah just a question, will there still be plenty of Oppurtunities for "young guns" like me and the others at JC to get a 'stepping stone' Job at a regonal airline in 2008 (when I turn 21)???
montanapilot
Well-Known Member
[ QUOTE ]
yeah just a question, will there still be plenty of Oppurtunities for "young guns" like me and the others at JC to get a 'stepping stone' Job at a regonal airline in 2008 (when I turn 21)???
[/ QUOTE ]
well if you do find someone who knows the answer to that question, give them my number so they can give me some stock tips!!!
yeah just a question, will there still be plenty of Oppurtunities for "young guns" like me and the others at JC to get a 'stepping stone' Job at a regonal airline in 2008 (when I turn 21)???
[/ QUOTE ]
well if you do find someone who knows the answer to that question, give them my number so they can give me some stock tips!!!
tonyw
Well-Known Member
The answer is:
Definitely maybe.
For what it is worth, the regionals have hired about 1,800 pilots this year. Total pilot hiring is about 4,100, and this includes everyone from the legacy carriers on down to air taxi and helicopter operations. That's according to the folks at Air Inc.
Definitely maybe.
For what it is worth, the regionals have hired about 1,800 pilots this year. Total pilot hiring is about 4,100, and this includes everyone from the legacy carriers on down to air taxi and helicopter operations. That's according to the folks at Air Inc.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
[ QUOTE ]
yeah just a question, will there still be plenty of Oppurtunities for "young guns" like me and the others at JC to get a 'stepping stone' Job at a regonal airline in 2008 (when I turn 21)???
[/ QUOTE ]
<Miss Cleo Voice>
Call me now! I can tell joo who jool bee flyin fur in 2008, how much mooney jool bee makin, and how much ganja joo can buy each week.
</Miss Cleo Voice>
If you DO find someone with the for sure answer to this, I'm taking them to the craps tables in Vegas.
yeah just a question, will there still be plenty of Oppurtunities for "young guns" like me and the others at JC to get a 'stepping stone' Job at a regonal airline in 2008 (when I turn 21)???
[/ QUOTE ]
<Miss Cleo Voice>
Call me now! I can tell joo who jool bee flyin fur in 2008, how much mooney jool bee makin, and how much ganja joo can buy each week.
</Miss Cleo Voice>
If you DO find someone with the for sure answer to this, I'm taking them to the craps tables in Vegas.
flyover
New Member
[quoteAnybody else see history starting to repeat itself here? When the airlines first started there were tons of smaller airlines, then the government forced most of them to merger into larger airlines. Pan Am was the only airline with international routes, so all the domestic airlines fed into Pan Am hubs for international flights. Looks like those large airlines might be spilitting back into the smaller airlines, and those small airlines may start feeding international airline hubs. Just an observation.
[/ QUOTE ]
Nope, the Big 6 will "meld" into a big 2 or 3 max through business failures and consolidation. They will have national coverage through their hubs with total connecting hubs in the US cut in about half. This will mean enough business for hub and spoke as well as LCC. Although the remaining majors will be able to compete in head to head markets as their costs will be coming down.
And that's the way it is, Friday, June 11, this is Walter Cronkite reporting.
[/ QUOTE ]
Nope, the Big 6 will "meld" into a big 2 or 3 max through business failures and consolidation. They will have national coverage through their hubs with total connecting hubs in the US cut in about half. This will mean enough business for hub and spoke as well as LCC. Although the remaining majors will be able to compete in head to head markets as their costs will be coming down.
And that's the way it is, Friday, June 11, this is Walter Cronkite reporting.