More good news

Seggy

Seggy

Well-Known Member
Won't bore you with the details but today there was an update at United that pretty much everyone will be put back in their seats they were in prior to March of 2020 (the small amount who won't be put back are still pay protected).

The LOA we signed in October worked perfectly.

Excellent news.
 
Seggy said:
Won't bore you with the details but today there was an update at United that pretty much everyone will be put back in their seats they were in prior to March of 2020 (the small amount who won't be put back are still pay protected).

The LOA we signed in October worked perfectly.

Excellent news.
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To really pull this out further, when are you bringing new pilots on property? I’m guessing since everybody kept in their seats for the most part there isn’t a training train wreck like Delta is about to deal with.


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Flyinthrew said:
To really pull this out further, when are you bringing new pilots on property? I’m guessing since everybody kept in their seats for the most part there isn’t a training train wreck like Delta is about to deal with.


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I’d bet money that we will be hiring in the fall.

There will be unfilled vacancies (that means they have to hire) with the processes they are going through. Doesn't mean they have to fill them right away, but it does mean they are unfilled.
 
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Seggy said:
I’d bet money that we will be hiring in the fall.

There will be unfilled vacancies (that means they have to hire) with the processes they are going through. Doesn't mean they have to fill them right away, but it does mean they are unfilled.
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Ok, all you Sports! Wager's on the table... Show Seggy the Money!

I'm gonna start making popcorn for the show starting late July.
 
While this is great news, I have a hard time believing the airline industry's quick recovery predictions.

Just ask around people you know outside of aviation, business travel is still a dud and many have been told don't expect travel until 2022. One friend who works at Harbor Freight and does logistics said he's been told maybe a China trip in 4th quarter this year. His job used to take him to China once every quarter, 4x /yr.


I see pent up demand for leisure travel and people WILL fly like gangbusters. But businesses? How many are going to permanently keep some percent of their workforce in the stay at home model? How many are going to take virtual meetings over meetings in person? And also importantly, how many are going to say "you really don't need a 16k roundtrip in first class to China. Here's a coach seat for $950."
 
I know there is much to be excited about, but a return of domestic leisure travelers doesn’t mean that business and international travel is coming back anytime soon. Best guess is that large businesses will begin reevaluating travel policies in late 2021/early 2022. Small and some medium-sized businesses may go ahead and begin travel, but that benefits Southwest more than the legacies.

...And then we have American Airlines. With the latest debt offering, just paying the interest on that means they won’t likely be able to turn a profit. They have to maintain certain liquidity levels however, so that their creditors don’t force them into bankruptcy. It is the very definition of burning the furniture to heat the house. What happens with American is the industry “wild card” at the moment.

We have only just begun to see what happens in the industry as recovery begins. A lot is going to change as consumer habits and business models from 2019 don’t hold true anymore. Yes, the government provided support. The government was buying stability though, not saving the airlines. They don’t care one bit what the name on the side of the airplane reads or who does what flying. They can’t afford major economic or industry disruption, so they bought stability. When the government stops throwing money you can bet some things are going to change.
 
chrisreedrules said:
I know there is much to be excited about, but a return of domestic leisure travelers doesn’t mean that business and international travel is coming back anytime soon. Best guess is that large businesses will begin reevaluating travel policies in late 2021/early 2022. Small and some medium-sized businesses may go ahead and begin travel, but that benefits Southwest more than the legacies.

...And then we have American Airlines. With the latest debt offering, just paying the interest on that means they won’t likely be able to turn a profit. They have to maintain certain liquidity levels however, so that their creditors don’t force them into bankruptcy. It is the very definition of burning the furniture to heat the house. What happens with American is the industry “wild card” at the moment.

We have only just begun to see what happens in the industry as recovery begins. A lot is going to change as consumer habits and business models from 2019 don’t hold true anymore. Yes, the government provided support. The government was buying stability though, not saving the airlines. They don’t care one bit what the name on the side of the airplane reads or who does what flying. They can’t afford major economic or industry disruption, so they bought stability. When the government stops throwing money you can bet some things are going to change.
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American securing that debt with their frequent flyer program looks a lot like selling the company off piece by piece. If american defaults on that loan, the financer will happily take possession of that program and then sell access back to american, allowing them to siphon even more money away from AMR.

The question is what gets sold next; slots or airplanes?
 
SlumTodd_Millionaire said:
Conferences are getting started again in my industry next month. One of our biggest conferences a year is up first. It normally draws 600+ attendees. We currently have 100 registered, with hopes to get 200 by the end. People just aren’t ready.
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I think next month is too early. I bet conferences in the fall will be closer to normal.
 
Cherokee_Cruiser said:
But businesses? How many are going to permanently keep some percent of their workforce in the stay at home model? How many are going to take virtual meetings over meetings in person? And also importantly, how many are going to say "you really don't need a 16k roundtrip in first class to China. Here's a coach seat for $950
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When the first sale is gained because they went to the client is when we are going to see business travel takeoff again.
 
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What's goin on at Purple for HKG? They moved them to SFO, all trips start/end at SF? What's the overnight/layover situation for HKG now, does FDX even fly there with the new quarantine requirements?
 
I think we’ll see some rapid “expansion” (really just bringing parked aircraft back) as the airlines all clamor to grab as much market share as possible while backstopping the operation with government money.

My prediction: Airlines will bring back more flying than demand dictates quicker than many of us thought because they don’t want to be caught with their pants down. To that end, many may in fact over-extend and find themselves in a situation where in 12-18 months they have more capacity than their revenues can support due to a slow return of business and international travelers. Then the industry will begin a period of consolidation.

How things go for American will come down to whether or not the creditors determine if the sum is worth more than the whole. If they think AA should just restructure their debt and contracts and continue on doing what their doing (albeit permanently smaller) then that’s what they’ll do. If however other airlines with cash reserves make lucrative offers to purchase pieces of the operation in bankruptcy in a bid to rapidly capture market share, things may get interesting quick...
 
Cessnaflyer said:
When the first sale is gained because they went to the client is when we are going to see business travel takeoff again.
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Thats a bit of a false assumption. Many business travelers aren’t selling anything. I have a family member who is an exec at a fortune 50 company. They’re permanently closing an office later this year as their lease expires and converting much of their upper/middle management to permanent remote work. The employees are ecstatic and the company will save tens of millions annually so board members are ecstatic too.

There will be a permanent loss of business travel. The question is just how much. And whether or not that loss will somehow create other opportunities. While I think it’s okay to be cautiously optimistic (if you aren’t at an AAG airline) I think it would be foolish to assume things are just going to magically spring back to “Normal” as we knew it in 2019. The world has changed. Some things will never be the same. Consumer habits have changed. Industries have changed. This one has already changed right before our eyes, many just haven’t recognized it yet.
 
I will say, some of us are itching to travel again. I've signed up for every conference that's taking place the rest of the year. I will be flying just about every month starting next month. And a few friends I know are doing the same.

But, we're the minority. Most others are cutting back travel expenses, attending virtual meetings, etc.
 
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